Chinese purchase of Su-35

Phead128 · Jun 13, 2013

@Blitzo:

Unless China plans to go into full-scale war during the interim gap where SAC production of J-11 fighters is insufficient, then the argument that peace time China is willing to trade short-term immediate gain of 24 heavy air superiority flanker variants for increased logistical/integration issues of a brand new class of heavy air superiority flanker variants during short-term peace-time is not very convincing.

However, I applaud you for thinking outside the box, using insufficient assembly line production capacity to justify the new purchases. That's assuming however, China needs every single heavy air superiority fighter she can get her hands on, which, if that is the case, wouldn't she buy more then 24 Su-35?

@Engineer:

I personally think China should invest in the WS-15, no matter how long it will take for it to come into fruition. However, other ppl suggest that the 117S is needed such that the prototype can be flight tested so that J-20 doesn't fall behind schedule with the serial production of peers like PAKFA, FGFA, etc... Does China need to race other countries in putting their 5th generation fighter into serial production? Unless China is preparing for war very soon, an extra 5 years wouldn't hurt if it means more money for indigenous product, would it?

Blitzo · Jun 13, 2013

franco-russe said:
Much as I regret intervening in this boring discussion, which in typical SDF fashion has become very heated and degenerated into namecalling: Either China buys SU-35S, or she does not, we will know sooner or later, so let's just wait.

I certainly intended no malice and I do not feel like I've received any from engineer or sinosoldier.

Like everyone else, I'll be convinced that PLAAF are buying Su-35s once they start arriving or when the chinese side announce a deal.

But for the sake of open mindedness and speculation, I thought trying to discern what the most plausible reason for an Su-35 purchase could be. Fortunately unlike other discussions that have ranged multiple pages in succession, this discussion is actually relevant to the thread's title!

@phead, much appreciated

Phead128 · Jun 13, 2013

@blitzo

If SU-35 comes wih significant Russian compromises on the use of Chinese avionics and weaponry systems, 117S engine procurement rights, and sweeteners like ToT for Lada SSK, then it is perfectly reasonable to off-set insufficient SAC J-11B production deficit with off-the-shelf foreign variants that can satisfy quantity specifications, and its merely incidental that Su35 is kinematically superior though electronically inferior (ie. China doesn't need it for its avionics or weaponry firepower suites)

Definitely a ration justification if goodies like 117S engines, Lada SSK ToT, and SAC J-11B profit on deficiency are considered as a whole if the deal actually goes through.

jobjed · Jun 13, 2013

Phead128 said:
@blitzo

If SU-35 comes wih significant Russian compromises on the use of Chinese avionics and weaponry systems, 117S engine procurement rights, and sweeteners like ToT for Lada SSK, then it is perfectly reasonable to off-set insufficient SAC J-11B production deficit with off-the-shelf foreign variants that can satisfy quantity specifications, and its merely incidental that Su35 is kinematically superior though electronically inferior (ie. China doesn't need it for its avionics or weaponry firepower suites)

Definitely a ration justification if goodies like 117S engines, Lada SSK ToT, and SAC J-11B profit on deficiency are considered as a whole if the deal actually goes through.

Lada is not a goody, it's a downgrade from the Yuan's the PLAN are already fielding.

AeroEngineer · Jun 13, 2013

jobjed said:
Lada is not a goody, it's a downgrade from the Yuan's the PLAN are already fielding.

Lada is crap. Even the Russians dont want it and now they are sayng that China wants it !!

Look at the history, China will NEVER buy a weapon system that is not mature otherwise it will be ended up like india, getting ripped off by russia again again and again.

S-400 is possible, however China will have S-400 equal by 2016 the latest !

delft · Jun 13, 2013

Bltizo said:
... yes it is able to produce new J-15s and J-16s because they may be compensating by stopping J-11B production. But PLAAF still needs J-11Bs, or something like that. They've managed to retool their production line for J-15s and J-16s, or may even have added another to produce J-15s and J-16s at the same time.

But they're losing J-11Bs cause of it. PLAAF and PLANAF still want their J-16s and J-15s on time. but PLAAF notes a shortage of J-11Bs. what do they do?

Su-35

If they do procure Su-35 due to production reasons they've clearly made the decision to not push back J-15 and J-16 and procure Su-35 after an extensive cost-benefit analysis.

Of course we can argue "well they can just delay their fleet expansion, or just live with a regiment or two less of J-11b-esque fighters". Sure. Are they willing to afford a decrease?

But that doesn't solve the problem that they'll have lost a year or more's worht of J-11B production which the PLAAF may have wanted. Not to mention retooling production lines doesn't happen overnight. And then there's J-16 production to factor in.

Look at it this way, there are X number of flankers SAC can produce between today and... let's say 2016, until an increased production line kicks in. X includes "A" number of J-11Bs/BSs, "B" number of J-15s, "C" number of J-16s. PLAAF needs to choose which it values more, because from now until 2016 they can only produce X number of airframes, and needs to divide that between J-11B, J-15 or J-16. If they sacrifice J-11Bs altogether, then "A" number of airframes can be split to increase J-15 and J-16 production, but PLAAF will lose their J-11Bs.

how do they circumvent that shortage of J-11Bs? Hopefully they would've had the foresight to refurbish old airframes etc... but if they still don't balance out... then buy Su-35s.

"Shortage" is in the eye of the beholder and on the group setting the marks for itself. The US complains about a "shortage" of missile defence capable destroyers in the future even though they have more PAR ABM capable burkes and ticos compared to the rest of the world added together.

You're either missing my point or purposefully ignoring it. I used the term "fighter shortage" generally but really it's a "heavy long range air superiority fighter" shortage. J-7s and J-8s are not equivalent to flankers. So despite the fact that they are still in service, if PLAAF's flankers are retiring, and/or if PLAAF are deciding to expand to heavy weight air superioroity fighter fleet/flanker fleet and SAC cannot keep up, then they will turn to russia to buy some planes to make up the numbers.
Sure PLAAF may have more flankers than Russia. But China is not Russia and PLAAF is not VVS.

No it isn't wise, because PLAAF and PLANAF may have a demand for J-16 and J-15 (PLAAF's MKKs are gaining flying hours, and PLANAF has a carrier wing or two to get operational), and J-11Bs are seen as the most expendable and replacable out of three?

PLA aren't exactly going to cut J-15 or J-16 production and turn to russia for Su-33 or more MKKs are they.

I definitely agree the Su-35 deal is still shady. But my argument is that the PLAAF could definitely have a grounds for purchasing Su-35 on the basis of having a fighter (air superiority flanker) shortage, possibly due to a shift to J-15/16 production + retiring of old flanker airframes + possibly a fighter fleet expansion.

The Russian jet will have a definite kinematic advantage while radar is debatable (the much touted benefits of AESA versus PESA aren't so clear cut, but having much more thrust is universal). And that's assuming J-11Bs even have AESAs, or will have.

When other countries have faced domestic shortage problems they turn to foreign sources. In this case China may well happen to have a shortage of flanker like fighters, so they're going to turn to Su-35 because that's arguably the best choice out there for their needs outside of asking Knaapo to produce J-11Bs at SAC prices. They're not going to suddenlybuy Mig-35 or something.

You sound as if the availability for production of J-15 and J-16 just suddenly dawned on PLAAF and SAC. But the development of both aircraft took years so there was time to set up an additional batch batch production facility for J-15 and another for J-16 or one that alternates J-15 and J-16 besides the production of batches of J-11B. So why should there now be a crisis?

plawolf · Jun 13, 2013

AeroEngineer said:
Lada is crap. Even the Russians dont want it and now they are sayng that China wants it !!

Look at the history, China will NEVER buy a weapon system that is not mature otherwise it will be ended up like india, getting ripped off by russia again again and again.

S-400 is possible, however China will have S-400 equal by 2016 the latest !

Well, your argument is off on two counts. Firstly, China has, in the past, been willing to buy into weapons systems that are still in development. The MKK is a good example. That was pretty much finances by Chinese money, and there was a whole series planned with a follow on MK2 and MK3 that would have been much closer to the Indian MKI.

The main difference between China and India is that China sets realistic targets and values having actual aircraft fielded ASAP rather than insisting their birds have every bell and whistle under the sun irrespective of of long it might take or how much it might cost. In addition, the rapid advancement of China's domestic high tech industries meant that China was able to catch up and surpass Russia in many fields. As such, but the time the Russians delivered the MK2s, the Chinese were no longer all that interested since their indigenous products were better and cheaper by then, which is why MK2 procurement stopped after the first batch of 24, which went to the navy, and the MK3 was canceled altogether.

The second part that you are wrong on is implying that the Su35 is an immature product. The Su35 has been fully developed and if China ordered some, the only waiting time would be how long it takes to build them.

Having said all that, I still seriously doubt China would ever buy the Su35. China already has around 300 Flankers with well over 200 J10s and over a hundred JH7s. If all of those fighters and the hundreds of late model J7 and J8s are not enough, what difference would two dozen Su35s make?

In the modern network centric battlespace, any asset fighting alone is as good as dead no matter how good it might be individually. The Su35s would not be able to datalink with Chinese AWACS and fighters. Their munitions would not be comparable, and all the new parts would require China to set up whole new maintenance and logistics chains to support, or have to spend a small fortune and wait ages sending parts back to Russia to be serviced. If you strip out the Russian avionics and radar and replace them with Chinese gear, how different would the resulting plane be to a J11B?

If the PLA was seriously desperate to get as many Flankers to units in as short a time as possible, they could have just paid the Russians to deliver the remaining hundred odd Su27SK kits that was originally contracted but then canceled by China. They could then build them with Chinese radars and avionics and massively boost short term production rate, but far more than 24 planes, those planes would fit in easily with other J11s, and the whole deal would cost a fraction of the money and time it would to buy Su35s and put in Chinese radars and avionics.

The Su35 deal might have happened 10, or even 5 years ago, but today, it just makes no sense for China. The J11B is arguably just as good in most fields, and the few advantages the Su35 might have over the J11B, such as more powerful engines, are only marginally better and no match against the kind of things China has in development. Frankly, they are not even worth copying, because firstly, the bottle neck with engines tech is materials science, not mechanical design. If you can't make the right alloys needed for key parts, the engine won't work no matter how perfect the shaping and layout. And secondly, by the time copies versions come online, the much better experimental stuff the Chinese are currently working on would be nearly operational anyways.

Besides, the Russians have already offered the Su35's engines on their own, and this is hardly the first year the Russians have offered the Su35 to China. If China wanted its engines for the J20 program, China would have bought either the engines directly, or the Su35 itself years ago.

mr.bean · Jun 13, 2013

Phead128 said:
@blitzo

If SU-35 comes wih significant Russian compromises on the use of Chinese avionics and weaponry systems, 117S engine procurement rights, and sweeteners like ToT for Lada SSK, then it is perfectly reasonable to off-set insufficient SAC J-11B production deficit with off-the-shelf foreign variants that can satisfy quantity specifications, and its merely incidental that Su35 is kinematically superior though electronically inferior (ie. China doesn't need it for its avionics or weaponry firepower suites)

Definitely a ration justification if goodies like 117S engines, Lada SSK ToT, and SAC J-11B profit on deficiency are considered as a whole if the deal actually goes through.

the S-400 SAM , from what I've read and seen on tv seems to be something china really wants to buy. what else does Russia have that china would really want to purchase?

plawolf · Jun 13, 2013

mr.bean said:
add the S-400 SAM on that list. from what I've read china seems to really want to buy that. so like you said it could be a 'packaged' deal and not just the SU-35.

Read from where? If the Russian media was to be believed, China would have written Russia a blank cheque and asked them to just take China's money in exchange for the honour and privilege to have the Su35 years ago.

mr.bean · Jun 13, 2013

plawolf said:
Read from where? If the Russian media was to be believed, China would have written Russia a blank cheque and asked them to just take China's money in exchange for the honour and privilege to have the Su35 years ago.

saw that on phoenix TV's military show, they said china really wants the S-400 because of the increased range and superior radar compared to the S-300's china uses. but Russia is not willing to sell that to china.

Chinese purchase of Su-35

Phead128

Captain

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Phead128

Captain

jobjed

Captain

AeroEngineer

Junior Member

delft

Brigadier

plawolf

Lieutenant General

mr.bean

Junior Member

plawolf

Lieutenant General

mr.bean

Junior Member