Chinese purchase of Su-35

Engineer said:

That's because it isn't about the deal. It is about making Russian equipments the focus of attention. That's why certain people keep on reviving dead threads on Russian equipments, and when that fails, pollute other threads with discussion about Russian equipments.

It would be hard for Russia to make sales if people forgot about existence of Russian equipments.

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Whatever it is, you gotta believe that the Chinese got a good deal as well. Long gone were the days when the Chinese were forced to sign bad and unfair deals (yes, a hundred years ago, Chinese diplomats were literally held at gunpoint to sign unfair treaties detrimental to China and the Chinese people).

The Chinese agreed to the Su-35 deal because they got plenty benefit worth the money that they paid. That part I am certain.

Whatever the reason behind it, who cares. Let's move on.

Deino said:

Also I have that strange feeling that some assume to have a better understanding of the PLAAF's requirements and reasons behind that deal.

NO again... simply accept that deal is done, they are operational at a regular front-line Brigade in the STC and that's all. We maybe never fully understand the real reason or reasons and I'm sure they are various, but please don't mix theories with lack of understanding, ignoring facts and even more let's wait what will come next. I for myself won't be surprised if this is only a prelude for a larger purchase.

Deino

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Yes, that's exactly my thought as well. The PLAAF knows their requirements better than anybody on this forum, and they are not likely to divulge everything they know to the public.

Some forumites seem to believe that in order for the Su-35 purchase to make sense, the PLAAF must have some gap that only the Su-35 can fill. That's does not have to be the case. It only matters that the Su-35 are highly capable planes. While it is true that extra logistics is needed to support them, we do not know the calculus behind the decision to make the purchase.

For all we know, it could be as simple as the fact that the PLAAF decision makers decided that the capabilities of the Su-35 are worth the extra cost in logistics. Perhaps they're meant to fill a gap until China can produce its next generation of fighters, or perhaps the PLAAF simply feels it's more cost effective to purchase some Su-35s instead of cranking out more J-11 or J-16s.

There are just so many valid reasons, politics being just one among them, why China would buy the Su-35, and just as many reasons why they shouldn't, that it's silly for us, the largely uninformed public, to make conclusions based on the little we know.

Logically, the simplest explanation is that China wants to try out the planes first before buying a larger batch, but that is just speculation as well.

PanAsian said:

It's one of those slow periods in China military watching so it's fun to revisit significant mysteries especially one so recent/ongoing with a valid question of whether it is a one-off deal or a step to something else/more.

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It is no longer fun when we simply go back and forth. No one can convince anyone. No pro-China members will admit China still needs technical assistance and no pro- Russia members will admit that Russian technology is no longer the best in the world. We are going circles around and around. It becomes a waste of time.

vesicles said:

It is no longer fun when we simply go back and forth. No one can convince anyone. No pro-China members will admit China still needs technical assistance and no pro- Russia members will admit that Russian technology is no longer the best in the world. We are going circles around and around. It becomes a waste of time.

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AMEN ... and therefore I beg all to stay on topic.

If it is not specificly Su-35-related please leave it.

Deino

PanAsian said:

Changing the nature of the relationship has to start somewhere. $2B and 24 aircraft are significant with the potential to go further, befitting a first step.

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2 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to the total expenditure spent so far on modernization of the fleet. As a signal for commitment it's not that significant. Given that they ended up getting a product that, from at least what we can gather, doesn't even fit into the rest of the systems they've made significant and extensive investments in, if this was an attempt to establish a relationship for more purchases it didn't seem to go very well. The rumour that they tried to buy fewer planes also doesn't seem to suggest a long term commitment for more purchases.

Either way, you didn't answer the question. It was a simple yes or no. If you were the PLAAF would you want to rely on that kind of volatility?

solarz said:

Producing locally is all well and good, but that doesn't mean China can't purchase some weapon systems to fill certain gaps.

If China currently does not have anything matching the capabilities of the Su-35 in production, then it makes sense to buy some until they do.

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Even a small gap has to be filled by domestic alternatives. The problem for a imported weapon without local replacement is straight, what happens if those "24" Su-35s are lost in the first week or months? Without local production, are you going to wait the Russians to deliver another 24 after you have lost the war?
The argument is not about Su-35 fundamentally, it is about how is PLA going to use them. As training/studying items is ok, that also means a small number. As a fighting system in a battle is not acceptable unless local production is possible.

b787 said:

Do you understand reliability? what is the reliability for 200 F-35 I will tell you not fit for combat, what is the reliability for Su-35? higher.

Now what can China do?

Can China detect F-35? yes they can, what can the USA do to detect J-20? yes they can detect it, haha of course live in Fantasies, F-35 and J-20 are not undetectable, just lower observability.

I see you think J-20 will remain undetectable, later you will talk to me about how Chinese technology can detect F-35. yeah i see.

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yeah, yeah, yeah, you understand everything, others know nothing. Heard that millions of times.

• Keep on moving goal posts
• keep on avoiding others points
• keep on pretending not reading
• keep on bringing in unrelated items
• keep on your holy faith that everything else is crap except your Su-35/57
• etc. etc.

vesicles said:

It is no longer fun when we simply go back and forth. No one can convince anyone. No pro-China members will admit China still needs technical assistance and no pro- Russia members will admit that Russian technology is no longer the best in the world. We are going circles around and around. It becomes a waste of time.

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I disagree and I think that is one of the problems lately on the forum, also guilty of it myself sometimes though. The fun and value of the forum is not in convincing others of whatever one thinks, the fun and value is in having everyone put their own thinking out there and having the discussion on them.

latenlazy said:

2 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to the total expenditure spent so far on modernization of the fleet. As a signal for commitment it's not that significant. Given that they ended up getting a product that, from at least what we can gather, doesn't even fit into the rest of the systems they've made significant and extensive investments in, if this was an attempt to establish a relationship for more purchases it didn't seem to go very well. The rumour that they tried to buy fewer planes also doesn't seem to suggest a long term commitment for more purchases.

Either way, you didn't answer the question. It was a simple yes or no. If you were the PLAAF would you want to rely on that kind of volatility?

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The point is that it is not a simple yes no question, also see my point above regarding what is the purpose of a forum. We certainly disagree with each other but our alternate explanations for what is known are both reasonable nor mutually exclusive.

PanAsian said:

The point is that it is not a simple yes no question, also see my point above regarding what is the purpose of a forum. We certainly disagree with each other but our alternate explanations for what is known are both reasonable nor mutually exclusive.

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It kind of is though. If we recognize that stable and reliable force build up is a key responsibility of the PLAAF, and if inducting Su-35s as a significant portion of the air force greatly complicates this basic imperative, then you need to be able to explain *why* they would be compelled to take on such complications.

Is it because the Su-35 is that much more superior technologically? That doesn't seem to make sense on at least two fronts. The first is simply that the PLAAF already has the J-20, J-10C, and, presumably, J-11D. China is already fielding a 5th generation design, and at least when it comes to avionics and electronics for 4th generation designs it doesn't seem like China has too much of a gap with Russia, if it isn't already ahead. The second is the systems integration angle. If the Su-35 isn't integrated into the broader C4ISR system China has built it is in fact an inferior solution, from the systems capability standpoint, compared to an indigenously produced fighter. Even if the PLAAF could figure out some solution to rectify this, that extra effort seems impractical when they could just spend that time and money procuring more of their own.

Is it because they want a closer relationship with Russia? If so does it make sense to compromise your independence and the efficacy of your force planning and military development to make Su-35s your mainstay? Couldn't they achieve the same by buying some other weapons system that may require less extensive commitments and compromises?

Is it because China has simply decided it can't meet long term procurement needs with its own production capacity, so it decided to buy Russia? If so, why did they presumably try to negotiate down the number of planes they were buying? Why couldn't they simply invest in expanding their own production capacity, which they've shown a commitment towards for decades now?

In a vacuum our different explanations aren't necessarily mutually exclusive, *but* in a world where the above facts, postulates, and conditions exist you either have to fit your explanation to work with them or make a strong case for why they are invalid or untrue. If you can't, then your reasoning becomes selective, and your arguments are rendered as logically flawed or false.

What Vesicles is referring to when he talks about pointless back and forths is the refusal to directly address the basic contentions and logical statements behind the arguments that are made. Rather than take some rationale for an argument at its face and examine the ways it could be wrong, more often than not people seem to sidestep counterpoints entirely and either reiterate their own points without so much as acknowledging the countervailing ones.

PanAsian said:

There certainly are factions in both countries who have major trust problems with each other but there are also factions in both countries at the very top who see the major strategic benefit, if not need, for that to change and the two to co-operate to survive/thrive in the face of containment and/or in case of hot wars with third parties which may well not be of China's or Russia's choosing.

Supposedly the Kremlin intervened to make this deal happen the way it did with planes rather than components, it's safe to assume Zhongnanhai approved of the deal from the other side. That indicates a push from factions in both leaderships to enhance defence relations especially if an aspect of it was either China overpaying for past offenses or Russia willing to do technology transfer, or a bit of both. Even if so it's merely a tentative step, so time will tell.

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If we get into politics it will not end, the only thing i can suggest you is read about the opinion many Russians have about Siberia and the Chinese immigration into it.

No need to go further.


About why they bought Su-35 you have to see two important points.
Stealth is not invisibility to radars, it is only lower reflectivity, if the radar is weak, the detection range is just a few km.

To put it in context, a MiG-23 will detect F-22 probably at 10-20 km from it, but a Su-35 might be in the range of 100-70km of Range.

However the Su-35 has the ability of group scanning, via data link, MiG-31s can sweep areas and overlap their individual radar ranges and via data link they can survey 600km.

So a group of Su-35 can patrol an area and close the gaps of their individual radars plus they have data link so their IRST system can share information via data link.


Add AWACS, radar ground stations, etc etc.

So for China like any other nation 4th generation fighters are not going to be substitute with 5th generation fighters for a long time.


J-11s and Su-35 will be at least flying for another 10-20 years, why? well simple radars are advancing too.

I can assure you a fighter like Rafale or Su-35 will beat F-35 in WVR, thus if you detect a 5th generation; a 4.5 generation can beat it, it is similar to the Vietnam war era when the less maneuverable american fighters were defeated by older MiG-17s and MiG-21s and that can include fighters like F-111.

The reason is stealth imposes so much restriction into the aerodynamics and weight that the fighters need to remain undetected to fight, otherwise they have no advantage at all.