Chinese purchase of Su-35

Tyloe said:

If the Su-35 deal is true, its a probably a politicised decision for what Beijing government perceives on threat environment. This was the same when Australia purchased 24 F/A-18Fs as interim fighters even though their first F-35s are arriving in 2018, and had its own share of controversy.

If this is the same for China, then 24 Su-35s were bought as 'interim air-superiority fighters' until the J-20 development is completed and first squadron of J-20s are fully operational. This might also mean J-20 program is going to take longer than first thought since imported Su-35s will take years to be all handed over to the PLAAF. This is all pure speculation, assuming the deal is real with confirmation from the Chinese side.

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Rumour has it that the first regiment of J-20s will enter service no later than 2017. It is even possible that the J-20 and the Su-35 (assuming deal goes through) will achieve combat operation capability at around the same time.

24 us-35 will hardly tip the balance in any plausible showdown between China and another power. Unless the su-35 is very similar to su-27 in all its maintenance and servicing procedures, it will likely take the Chinese 3-4 years just to bring a small 24 ship fleet of us-35 to a point where it can sustain high mission availability. By which time j-20 would probably be in service in larger numbers than 24.

So I strongly doubt the su-35 is purchased as a stop gap.

I think there are Two possible reasons for the acquisition. One is su-35 is the price Russia exacted for some larger transaction, such as
a batch of engines for the first few blocks of j-20. The second is something I know fanboys will be loathed to hear, which is perhaps j-20 is proving wanting in some way so that it could not adequately fulfill all the roles a late model G4+ fighter can.

Richard Santos said:

............ One is su-35 is the price Russia exacted for some larger transaction, such as
a batch of engines for the first few blocks of j-20. The second is something I know fanboys will be loathed to hear, which is perhaps j-20 is proving wanting in some way so that it could not adequately fulfill all the roles a late model G4+ fighter can.

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Both are ridiculous. If it's for engines for J20, they should have been delivered years ago, not now when tests are ending & LRIP beginning.
As for filling any possible gaps of even a small number of J20, many more than 24 is needed, like 100 maybe. Remember, Su35 is something which don't even impress the Indian AF.

Schumacher said:

Well, the S400 is another one of those never ending stories from the Russian rumor mill that is never really confirmed by facts.
I'll believe it when I see it.
For now, here's the verifiable fact, the Russian system was the first to be eliminated in the Turkish selection eventually won by China but of course have since been cancelled due to political & economic considerations.
Would China really buy this other than perhaps as a political support of Russia ?

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What makes the S400 more plausible in my view, although still questionable, is that while we've heard rumors about it for some time now, the Russians have been busy producing batteries for their own defense. There has been no opportunity to fill export orders until now because they have been filling their own critical need.

The same case cannot be made for the Su-35 in Russia as they have not been mass inducting these aircraft into the RuAF and have continued placing Su-30SM orders.

Zool said:

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The same case cannot be made for the Su-35 in Russia as they have not been mass inducting these aircraft into the RuAF and have continued placing Su-30SM orders.

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I'm not familiar with Su35's status within Russia, but if this is true, looks like even RuAF is not buying the super duper TVC hype either. lol

Richard Santos said:

How would the Russians effect a sale to the Chinese to pressure the Indians unless the Chinese were fairly willing to buy in the first place? What does the Chinese gain from ponying up 2 billion to pressure the Indians to cooperate more closely with the Russians to develop a better fighter than any others the Indians have?

I think the timing of the deal is more likely the result of convergent interests between Russia and China to send a message to the US to let up on the direct and indirect steps the US has taken to circumscribe the freedom Russia and China has in their respective near abroads, or else face closer military collaboration between China and Russia, and enhanced ability bu the two countries to coordinate trouble making for the US in other areas.

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It's common place in major procurement deals and financial markets that rumors, true or not, have an effect on price and urgency to buy/sell. Military deals in a competing region are absolutely subject to this kind of thing when it comes to strategic planning and balance of forces vis-a-vis your neighbor.

The theory does not assume China actually wants the fighters at all, but explains why Russia would continue to advertise a 'done deal' over the years anyhow. I expounded on this a little more only 12 minutes after that post you quoted. I'll include below for reference and won't follow up on this anymore as it's simply a thought I had, considering timing and status of other regional deals involving Russia.

Zool said:

Oh, I am aware and have been watching this 'deal' unfold for years now. But there is usually method to the madness. It makes sense that if this continues to be smoke in regard to a Chinese procurement, then there must be another reason for these proclamations out of Russia. I.e. Advertisement and Leverage to influence other traditional Russian arms clients. In this case/theory India. Possibly.

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Schumacher said:

I'm not familiar with Su35's status within Russia, but if this is true, looks like even RuAF is not buying the super duper TVC hype either. lol

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Su-30SM is equipped with TVC. It followed the Indian MKI program and is similar in capabilities.

I think the deal for Su35 is not good for Chinese aviation flanker industry

It brings into question many things

After almost 2 decades they can't match Russian ?

No doubt it's a political move but still not good for China

But I have a feeling now it's another rumour China has not confirmed this deal

Zool said:

Su-30SM is equipped with TVC. It followed the Indian MKI program and is similar in capabilities.

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What I wanted to say was the Su35 hype.

Schumacher said:

I'm not familiar with Su35's status within Russia, but if this is true, looks like even RuAF is not buying the super duper TVC hype either. lol

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Su-35s are serially produced(as most capable a2a fighter in Russian service), 4 latest were transfered to RuAF literally today.(I can add photos later, if necessary).
Su-30sm are also in parallel production, since they're produced by different plants&represent different lines of flanker evolution.
Both are with full 3D tvc...