Chinese oversea bases

Andy1974 said:

Apparently not.

Your arguments so far don’t make sense to me, hosting H20’s, PLARF, or floods of Diesel Subs as you suggested is just not realistic imo, why would Cambodia agree to that? Have you considered Cambodias point of view at all? Or ASEANs? Or Chinas past modus operandi?

My arguments:.

1. There is no threat in the Gulf of Thailand.
2. A strong Cambodian Navy can defend its maritime territory by itself.
3. China can already cover those waters with rockets and subs and god knows what else.
4. It’s adjacent to the SCS, which China can easily deploy from, doesn’t even need a support ship.
5. It’s in the first island chain, surrounded by friends and neighbors.
6. It doesn’t protect anything.
7. It would just be an easy to target for nearby western forces, easy to destroy or blockade.
8. China said they are not.
9. Cambodia said they are not.
10. Geography, the Thai ismuths blocks access to the Indian Ocean anyway. China can’t sail through it or fly over it, they might have US SAMS deployed there.

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Whether Cambodia will allow it in the future is one question. Whether this would significantly help china is a different question.

For the first question, that's up to china to negotiate with Cambodian government. You may ask why would any country in Asia host American base? How would it help them? Clearly, American base there is good for those countries economically and offer them greater security. If at end of the day, Cambodian government just says that we don't want permanent Chinese presence here, then that's different story. China should pursue a base here as long as it's in their interest to do so.

For the second question, I think you should really think about the range of different pla weapon platform and where their threats come from. It's quite strange to me that you think a base in Gulf of guinea is more important than a base around Malacca straits.

tphuang said:

Whether Cambodia will allow it in the future is one question. Whether this would significantly help china is a different question.

For the first question, that's up to china to negotiate with Cambodian government. You may ask why would any country in Asia host American base? How would it help them? Clearly, American base there is good for those countries economically and offer them greater security. If at end of the day, Cambodian government just says that we don't want permanent Chinese presence here, then that's different story. China should pursue a base here as long as it's in their interest to do so.

For the second question, I think you should really think about the range of different pla weapon platform and where their threats come from. It's quite strange to me that you think a base in Gulf of guinea is more important than a base around Malacca straits.

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Well, basically it’s because I consider that Ream doesn’t cover the Malacca straits, and also that the straits can be blocked by many means, such as holding the ships at foreign ports and just not letting them sail, as the US stated they would do.

A Ream base is so easily countered by the US.

Why are you ignoring that China has anti-ship ballistic missiles which can be launched from the mainland or SCS islands to hit the Malacca straights?

Now please consider the Global South, draw a line between South America and Africa, everything south of that line is where Chinas ship bourne minerals are coming from more and more, and it is directly threatened by mainland USA. It is completely undefended, and large parts are lawless.

China needs to challenge the US in the South Atlantic, not the Gulf of Thailand. The Gulf of Guinea is ideal, IMO and fits with recent moves, such as making things interesting for the US far away from China.

Looking at countries that might be amenable in that Gulf, and Senegal is the clear front runner.

If China ever opens a base in ASEAN, it ought to be in Singapore. This will follow the pattern in Djibouti which is to choose a host country that already hosts multiple foreign bases.

This will actually allow China to access the Malacca strait, and have the ability to close it to others.

Andy1974 said:

Well, basically it’s because I consider that Ream doesn’t cover the Malacca straits, and also that the straits can be blocked by many means, such as holding the ships at foreign ports and just not letting them sail, as the US stated they would do.

A Ream base is so easily countered by the US.

Why are you ignoring that China has anti-ship ballistic missiles which can be launched from the mainland or SCS islands to hit the Malacca straights?

Now please consider the Global South, draw a line between South America and Africa, everything south of that line is where Chinas ship bourne minerals are coming from more and more, and it is directly threatened by mainland USA. It is completely undefended, and large parts are lawless.

China needs to challenge the US in the South Atlantic, not the Gulf of Thailand. The Gulf of Guinea is ideal, IMO and fits with recent moves, such as making things interesting for the US far away from China.

Looking at countries that might be amenable in that Gulf, and Senegal is the clear front runner.

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It's hard for me to take what you say seriously when you consider Atlantic ocean more important than Malacca straits and scs.

Andy1974 said:

If China ever opens a base in ASEAN, it ought to be in Singapore. This will follow the pattern in Djibouti which is to choose a host country that already hosts multiple foreign bases.

This will actually allow China to access the Malacca strait, and have the ability to close it to others.

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There is some real problems here. As currently stands, Singapore govt is unlikely to offer china access as military base there. Singapore itself does not have the space needed to host a large Chinese air base + missiles base. Would Malaysia or Indonesia be good places to put a military base? They would be. However, I think it's easier at current time to persuade Cambodian government to allow china to host a base than Malaysian or Indonesian government.

tphuang said:

There is some real problems here. As currently stands, Singapore govt is unlikely to offer china access as military base there. Singapore itself does not have the space needed to host a large Chinese air base + missiles base. Would Malaysia or Indonesia be good places to put a military base? They would be. However, I think it's easier at current time to persuade Cambodian government to allow china to host a base than Malaysian or Indonesian government.

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Not more important. Maybe it’s better to say that the Gulf of Guinea needs a Chinese base more than the Gulf of Thailand, I’ll leave it at that.

Andy1974 said:

If China ever opens a base in ASEAN, it ought to be in Singapore. This will follow the pattern in Djibouti which is to choose a host country that already hosts multiple foreign bases.

This will actually allow China to access the Malacca strait, and have the ability to close it to others.

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I think Singapore is more US friendly, how on earth would it offer China a naval base in its soil?

If proximity to S China Sea and Malacca Strait is important, China should also consider East Malaysia (i.e. Sarawak and Sabah), where the Bumiputra are less than 50% of the population, and it is far away from the political power center of Peninsular Malaysia (less political visibility).

Yes, Malaysian government is less receptive to having Chinese bases than Cambodia. But regional politics make strange bedfellows. Malaysia may just do it to spite Singapore.

China needs to proceed with base in Cambodia with caution. The move may push Vietnam to become more receptive to hosting US warships at Cam Ranh Bay, something the US has been seeking without success for several years.

But at the end of the day, China must settle the S China Sea disputes with ASEAN before any military bases can be considered.

SteelBird said:

I think Singapore is more US friendly, how on earth would it offer China a naval base in its soil?

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I didn’t say it was likely or it would happen any time soon, but suppose Singapore wants to balance relations between China and the US, like so many countries are now saying they want to do, then a base could be justified.

There would obviously have to a win for Singapore too, perhaps related to free trade and further opening up. I don’t see why Singapore needs a base though which is a very important aspect of this that others are ignoring.

Remember that the Djibouti base is to support UN mandated anti-piracy missions, any base China makes in the future will almost certainly be to support a similar mandate from the UN.

Guess where there is piracy and a UN mandate coming?

China wants all countries to be sovereign, including Singapore. This is better than having a base in a country.

So far we are seeing China ramping up sales of military equipment abroad and now building military infrastructure for other countries. This really weakens the hegemony already, without even the need for bases.

China doesn’t need many Naval bases like the US or the West does, she is not a hegemony. We have only seen supply ships docking at the Djibouti base for example which I think reflects their way of doing things.

I would be surprised if China ends up with more than 10 global naval bases, mostly for peacekeeping.

Ream naval base is driving US crazy:
I think that alone is worth the development money.