It's a lot harder to destroy a spread out base with more air defense units than what's on spratleys. There will also be more people available to repair base compared to spratleys, which simply don't have lodging available. The problem with spratleys is just the small area that makes it more easily targetable and destroyed. It's similar to why American first island chain bases are not that survivable against large number of missiles.
Also, the big fear is nuclear submarines rather than surface combatants since the latter is rather easy to track and attack with hypersonic missiles. The risk of facing 300 subsonic cruise missiles from 10 to 12 submarines is not as threatening as facing b21 flying over and dropping 10t of pgms. So if they can reduce threat to just missile launches from nuclear subs, the threat is just not as scary.
Due to geography, the threat of pla missiles is greater than that of usn.
Using that logic, no country within pla missiles range would want to host us bases, right?
Yet in a recent poll conducted by japan, 48% of asean people consider china to be their important partner, higher than any other country.
There are clearly countries that America has turned it's back on. Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos are obviously in that list. Those are likely to side with china. Other countries are facing tug of war between the two powers. China would be well served to give a little bit on scs issues to win over these countries.
There is no reason china cannot protect and support it's allies.
