Chinese Internal Politics

Minm

Junior Member
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Sorry if it's been posted. How accurate is this analysis? My understanding of chinese internal politics and the people involved is limited. So he is basically out of the elite level forever?
Someone who spent most of his career in Tibet, then worked in hebei and inner Mongolia and only 5 years in Guangdong doesn't have the right experience. The new guys have mostly worked in the rich coastal provinces for most of their careers. They have seen private small and medium enterprises build new technologies. This is what China needs. Pro market economic reformers
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Moderator - World Affairs
Someone who spent most of his career in Tibet, then worked in hebei and inner Mongolia and only 5 years in Guangdong doesn't have the right experience. The new guys have mostly worked in the rich coastal provinces for most of their careers. They have seen private small and medium enterprises build new technologies. This is what China needs. Pro market economic reformers
And regulate them if necessary.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Sorry if it's been posted. How accurate is this analysis? My understanding of chinese internal politics and the people involved is limited. So he is basically out of the elite level forever?
Deng was purged completely and came back. It all depends on Xi and whether he thinks Hu is worthy of elevation next round.
Someone who spent most of his career in Tibet, then worked in hebei and inner Mongolia and only 5 years in Guangdong doesn't have the right experience. The new guys have mostly worked in the rich coastal provinces for most of their careers. They have seen private small and medium enterprises build new technologies. This is what China needs. Pro market economic reformers
Yes, China needs people who have been dealt the best cards in the most peaceful provinces since clearly China has amazing circumstances and is guaranteed to have peace and stability. How could someone who crushed Tibetan and Mongol independence while stabilizing Guangdong and having national level experience in flagship Xi programs possibly have anything to offer?
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
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Deng was purged completely and came back. It all depends on Xi and whether he thinks Hu is worthy of elevation next round.

Yes, China needs people who have been dealt the best cards in the most peaceful provinces since clearly China has amazing circumstances and is guaranteed to have peace and stability. How could someone who crushed Tibetan and Mongol independence while stabilizing Guangdong and having national level experience in flagship Xi programs possibly have anything to offer?
In the past, to be groomed as a leader meant you have to work in the backwards provinces, so I would not say that Hu is out due to his lack of experiences in the more prosperous provinces. I think this is more a way to ensure that all the people in charge are Xi's loyalists. Xi wants to ensure that CYL people are out and not come back since they represent a clique that he did not control.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
In the past, to be groomed as a leader meant you have to work in the backwards provinces, so I would not say that Hu is out due to his lack of experiences in the more prosperous provinces. I think this is more a way to ensure that all the people in charge are Xi's loyalists. Xi wants to ensure that CYL people are out and not come back since they represent a clique that he did not control.
All norms have been tossed.
 

nugroho

Junior Member
Isn't this far exaggerating the problems with Hu Jintao government?

Firstly about pollution, 1-2 years of change wouldn't have meant much. Hu's China was a responsible power in climate that juggled the needs of a well developed industrial sector with the needs of the environment. Under no time did China's per capita pollution rise above the German one, a nation with roughly comparable industrial development.

Under Xi it is not much different.

The Washington tagline based on half truth that China is the "biggest polluter", well, China is the largest developed nation and the largest nation overall. Everything must be examined at a per capita level, if you do arbitrary groupings, I can also say "the West is the biggest polluter in the world", or "western democracies are the biggest polluters in the world". It is expected and normal for China to have the largest consumption as long as the per capita level isn't untenable then

So pollution is just a big nothing burger for both Xi and Hu governments, the only actors trying to make it a big deal are malicious ones.

Xi did further strengthen anti corruption measures but its not like the Hu government didn't have strong rule of law and institutions either. There was a decent level of efficiency, and not much money fell into corruption.

The greatest of the Hu era corrupt official was probably Bo Xilai who gathered 25 million+ RMB through illegal activities. That might sound like a lot but on an institutional level, it's peanuts, skimmed off the top in an unnoticeable way, rather than crippling corruption that destroys whole projects.

Without the effective institutions of Hu, it wouldn't be possible to cast a wide net like Xi did when he reinforced existing institutions either.

So I think the role of Hu shouldn't be discredited, but Xi defintely achieved more than Hu which was not doing much besides keeping the status quo.
Zhou Yongkang> Bo
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here is my interpretation of what went down at the closing of the meeting with Hu. If you look at the few minutes before Hu was escorted out, he was looking at the red book which might contain the names of who gets what. Quite possibly, for the first time, he realized that CYL members were all absent from the standing committee. I am sure the other CYL members somehow got wind of it earlier. Even if Xi spring a surprise at this stage, if Hu had all his faculties, he would know that CYL had just been eased out of power and there is not a thing that he can do. You would not raise questions in such a public forum. You would just keep mum and see if there is anything to be done after.

The conclusion I draw from this sequence of events was that Xi, out of respect for Hu, gave him a seat next to himself. Xi expected Hu to keep his composure when he sees this list. However, Hu, being senile, was not able to keep his composure. Xi cannot tolerate descent. Given that the senility of Hu was probably already known, he made alternate arrangement to escort Hu out in case this happen.

Hu is not playing with his full deck at the meeting.
 
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