Chinese Internal Politics

M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
I am disappointed, but on the positive side if this power is used well and responsibly, and the leaders new to national power have the wisdom and humility of understanding the bureaucracies that they manage, then it's no big deal in the short term. In the long term, the precedent of stacking the PBSC is very bad for continuity of government. We've seen this before with Leonid Brezhnev's stacking of the Presidium in the USSR and hanging on for 18 years. It was a direct cause of Gorbachev rising. I hope Xi won't become a Brezhnev which leads to a power vacuum if he dies, and then a Gorbachev rises. The temporary risk has reduced, but the long term risk is still there.

And I have to be honest, the #1 danger for China in the long term is not US, Taiwan, Japan, petrodollar, etc because China is, like you said before, kinda too big to fail. China failing will drag the entire world down with it anyhow, and the added strategic deterrent ensures that. The biggest danger for China is a Gorbachev appearing because there wasn't enough time to prescreen all candidates before a strong old leader like Brezhnev bites the dust. The time was now to start preparing for a transition of government yet that did not happen.
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I don't think that the Soviet Union is a good model for China. The Soviet Union didn't fall because Gorbachev got promoted, he was just the one to pull the trigger. It failed because it couldn't deliver prosperity for its people and couldn't rejuvenate its ideology. It's actually a great thing that "Xi Jinping thought", whatever that may be, is now the new ideology. The ideas keep being adapted to changing times. The Soviets didn't do the same and stuck to their failing economic system. They were also highly dependent on the sale of oil and gas to the West and never managed to become a technological peer to the US. Everybody knew that the system was rotten and something had to be done

And in the worst case, China's history could repeat. Xi goes crazy in old age and launches another cultural revolution. He dies and an old comrade that got purged returns to take over. Li Keqiang is ready to be the new Deng, who was over 70 when Mao died
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Sure as hell wouldn't hurt to have experienced potential successors lined up like Mao did and Brezhnev did not. Chen Min'er not making PBSC was also a surprise to me because he is actually Xi favored and was rumored as a top tier pick, but Hu was the big one.
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How do you imagine Hu would have been a potential successor? If Xi dropped dead, do you think the other 5 would have allowed someone from outside their clique to become General Secretary?

But the truth is it doesn't really matter who got picked. This is the Xi Show and it would have been the Xi Show no matter who got picked. I dislike quoting someone like Ian Bremmer favourably, but he actually gets it
The crap about decreased growth and productivity aside (wouldn't be Ian Bremmer if he didn't say something ridiculous), he more or less understands a simple fact: Xi is going to direct the ship the way he wants it to go.

Beyond that, I dispute the idea that allowing people in from rival factions would allow more scope for alternative opinions. Being trustworthy and close to a leader allows you to give him more honest advice; by contrast, having a pall of suspicion hang over you makes you more of a yes-man since you'll always agree just to appear loyal. Quite aside from the fact that these are Xi "loyalists", are they incompetent? Are they incapable of performing their duties?

Xi did not have a successor lined up since he took office, nihil novi sub sole. Whatever the risks of that are, no leader is going to intentionally make himself a lame duck. Mao's appointed successor lasted about as long as a trip to the toilet before Deng sidelined him; nobody remembers him today. It was Mao, Deng, a couple of guys in Deng's shadow, and now Xi.

Lastly, the USSR didn't fall because of Brezhnev's Politburo, it fell because it didn't have a functioning economy.
 
E

EtherealSmoke

New Member
Registered Member
There's a lot of technocratic/professional talent on the wider Politburo. He Lifeng (economics), Ma Xingrui, Yuan Jiajun (Aerospace), Chen Wenqing (MSS/National Security), Yin Li (public health), Chen Jining (environment), Li Ganjie (nuclear), Wang Yi (foreign affairs), Zhang Guoqing (military industrial)

PBSC clearly stacked to implement/execute Xi's vision with no alternative. State Council in particular got completely wiped clean. I think Ding Xuexiang as executive vice premier is most surprising. Shows Xi's team has complete control of party and government.
 
Kalec

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
However I haven't see a clear successor in this PBSC for 2027 yet. Xi will be 74 by 2027 and definitely need to retire by then or he would be 79 at the end of next tenure.

Ok Ding Xuexiang might be an option to succeed Xi in 2027 but Ding will also be 65 by then. Also he is pretty much a technocrat, never served as a region governor. IMO he won't be the successor, but I might be wrong since Xi broke many norms.

In comparison, Deng took the role of leadership at the age of 74 but he never served as General Secretary himself. Hu Yaobang came GS at the age of 67, Zhao Ziyang at 68 and both of them created deep instability and then Tian'anmen happened.

Jiang Zemin took over the seat at 63, Hu at 60. Xi became General Secretary at the age of 59, youngest leader since Mao. I don't understand why Xi hasn't appointed a successor yet given his age.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
How do you imagine Hu would have been a potential successor? If Xi dropped dead, do you think the other 5 would have allowed someone from outside their clique to become General Secretary?

But the truth is it doesn't really matter who got picked. This is the Xi Show and it would have been the Xi Show no matter who got picked. I dislike quoting someone like Ian Bremmer favourably, but he actually gets it
The crap about decreased growth and productivity aside (wouldn't be Ian Bremmer if he didn't say something ridiculous), he more or less understands a simple fact: Xi is going to direct the ship the way he wants it to go.

Beyond that, I dispute the idea that allowing people in from rival factions would allow more scope for alternative opinions. Being trustworthy and close to a leader allows you to give him more honest advice; by contrast, having a pall of suspicion hang over you makes you more of a yes-man since you'll always agree just to appear loyal. Quite aside from the fact that these are Xi "loyalists", are they incompetent? Are they incapable of performing their duties?

Xi did not have a successor lined up since he took office, nihil novi sub sole. Whatever the risks of that are, no leader is going to intentionally make himself a lame duck. Mao's appointed successor lasted about as long as a trip to the toilet before Deng sidelined him; nobody remembers him today. It was Mao, Deng, a couple of guys in Deng's shadow, and now Xi.

Lastly, the USSR didn't fall because of Brezhnev's Politburo, it fell because it didn't have a functioning economy.
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You know what Hua Guofeng did, that makes him getting sidelined by Deng irrelevant? He had the wisdom to pardon Deng and restore his titles. Deng didn't seize power from scratch after getting purged, he was pardoned and allowed to come back as Vice Premier. Hua could've just forgotten about Deng, picked someone else, and Deng would be just some random guy that got purged.

This is why Mao had a successor with experience: Even if they can't do anything themselves, they can at least think of the people who can and put them in the right place.

Anyhow, you said it right: the ship is now Xi's. Whatever happens, good or bad, is on him, the individual. The good news is that if Xi fails, CPC can blame him the individual, if he succeeds, CPC wins too.
 
K

KYli

Brigadier
Hua Guofeng pardoned Deng or not couldn't stop Deng from coming back. After Mao's death, the power has shifted. Deng's allies have already slowly usurped powers and influence from Hua before Deng's return. Even though Hua held all important titles, the military and senior officials don't listen to him as Guofeng isn't revolutionary leaders like Deng and other senior officials.
 
D

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
people all over get too caught up with the standing committee names. look at the entire politburo, unusually heavy on scientific background. you have people with rocket science, nuclear, and even medical background. even ding had industry experience early in his career. this is on top of what others have already mentioned about the military side being heavy on taiwan theatre. it says a lot about Xi's intentions for the next five years.
 
F

Feima

Junior Member
Registered Member
What is the mapping between CPC posts and government positions? Do the standing committee and overall politburo appointments automatically mean so-and-so will be in what government positions?
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Xi may not have the intellectual pedigree of his predecessors but I doubt that he is afflicted with actual mental disabilities or require the wearing of an adult diaper at all times. So what if he only has middle school level education. Middle schoolers can still calculate compound interests, something that Mrs Haley apparently had trouble with.
 
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