Chinese Internal Politics

FairAndUnbiased said:

Good or bad for China? Hard to say. This is a gamble. With great power comes great responsibility. My opinion:

1. If the next government succeeds in any 1 of the following, it counts as a huge win and nothing else matters: cancelling petrodollar, flipping Japan, taking Taiwan, outright defeat (military or political) of some certain country, digital RMB as top reserve currency

2. If the next government succeeds in any 3 of the following, it counts as a neutral: domestic EUV, domestic widebody civil aviation, BRI success, total energy independence, Russian victory in Ukraine, nominal GDP exceeding US, COVID hitting everyone

3. If the next government doesn't succeed at any of the above, it is bad, because it causes political instability due to centralizing too much power and doing nothing with it. Successive governments will struggle to claim similar legitimacy as Xi's as he's broken too many precedents and is basically wasting an asset with Hu Chunhua.

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Overlord said:

I think xi is trying to finish taiwan problem and I'm not sure how many of party people support something like common prosperity/ rural revitalization Instead previous leaders focused more on GDP & export but xi wants more self sufficient economy as well as wants to increase more middle class so that it can turn china into bigger consumer mar for internal cycle ( you have heard of dual circulation) so that you won't be dependent on export kind of like American economy and I'm sure many Shanghai guys want to rely more on export based economy .
I think few goals which xi wants to achieve.

1. De dollarisation ( BRICS / yuan internationalization) , export to USA Europe helps dollar stay number 1, less export oriented economy means west will starve to get Chinese product which can also protect china from external problem & inflation.

2. Taiwan problem ( just they did changes in constitution about this issue)

3. More border control & scs control.

4. Transforming PLA to number 1 ( fight with anybody who is interfering directly in China's territory)

5. More self sufficient economy ( made in china will go through full effort)

If china achieve all this under xi then china will enter into new era where USA dominance will be gone , USA will explode with debt & collapse.

But if you think and look back then under xi China became more self reliant, more innovative, more clean & PLA Also became near peer to USA military . I think xi didn't liked few things about how much hew was pushing for self reliant & made in china 2025 goal but still companies & government organisations was still buying foreign techs . There is a reason why west & even big neighbours hates xi more than CCP.

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MixedReality said:

1. Technology self-sufficiency in critical sectors for technological security.
2. Accelerate military build up including expanding nuclear arsenal for national security.
3. Boost domestic consumption for economic security.
4. Expand domestic capital market financing for financial security.
4. Digital yuan use expanded to all of China for financial security.
5. Deflating property sector
6. Boosting birth rates.

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4Runner said:

Two, there will be a clean-the-house process in the financial industry, where it has been the weakest link in China economical eco-system since Zhu Rong Ji retired. Along the same line, there will be more efforts in promoting RMB for international settlement.

Three, on international front, there will be more RCEP, SCO and BRICS. The longer this war continues, the more important those regional organizations become. If and when Iran joins SCO and Saudi joins BRICS, that would mark the beginning of an era in which the world would be officially divided in the east vs the west.

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I would say Taiwan is one of China's minor problems right now. Folks, China is choosing the whip they are going to use against Taiwan.

The biggest problems I see that need a total or partial solution in the short term, technological independence, fixing the inflated real estate sector, the financial system, maintaining economic growth above 4.5%-5% and intensifying the birth rate, if necessary, even encouraging immigration.

I think it is very likely that the other things will intensify, but not to the point of causing a rupture as you say, I see the dollar becoming less important in international trade in the long term, as well as the RMB having a greater participation in the international market as a reserve currency, in addition to the other things already mentioned. This will not be difficult to achieve now with the consolidation of power around Xi, but it will depend on the external scenario as well and how China will behave in this scenario, it may be that it seeks some other foreign policy that is more divergent with the US and the West in general, or maybe not, this is still too early to say, but any of the items you mentioned depend directly or indirectly on the outside scenario.

The direction of Xi's trade policy prioritizing internal development rather than encouraging exports just for the sake of exporting will give a huge boost to the purchasing power of the Chinese population, if this is one of Xi's central goals for the next 5 years, I would blindly the support. Furthermore, this has a double effect, the West will now no longer be able to import cheap goods, this increases the inflationary cost for the West, while reducing it for the Chinese, but care has to be taken with this policy because it affects critical sectors of the Chinese economy. like shipbuilding that China is the world leader, I would say the change will be gradual and perhaps even slow, even as Xi consolidates power.

Basically all of the above has consequences for the rest of the other claimed priority objectives. This is going to be interesting.

Sinnavuuty said:

I would say Taiwan is one of China's minor problems right now. Folks, China is choosing the whip they are going to use against Taiwan.

The biggest problems I see that need a total or partial solution in the short term, technological independence, fixing the inflated real estate sector, the financial system, maintaining economic growth above 4.5%-5% and intensifying the birth rate, if necessary, even encouraging immigration.

I think it is very likely that the other things will intensify, but not to the point of causing a rupture as you say, I see the dollar becoming less important in international trade in the long term, as well as the RMB having a greater participation in the international market as a reserve currency, in addition to the other things already mentioned. This will not be difficult to achieve now with the consolidation of power around Xi, but it will depend on the external scenario as well and how China will behave in this scenario, it may be that it seeks some other foreign policy that is more divergent with the US and the West in general, or maybe not, this is still too early to say, but any of the items you mentioned depend directly or indirectly on the outside scenario.

The direction of Xi's trade policy prioritizing internal development rather than encouraging exports just for the sake of exporting will give a huge boost to the purchasing power of the Chinese population, if this is one of Xi's central goals for the next 5 years, I would blindly the support. Furthermore, this has a double effect, the West will now no longer be able to import cheap goods, this increases the inflationary cost for the West, while reducing it for the Chinese, but care has to be taken with this policy because it affects critical sectors of the Chinese economy. like shipbuilding that China is the world leader, I would say the change will be gradual and perhaps even slow, even as Xi consolidates power.

Basically all of the above has consequences for the rest of the other claimed priority objectives. This is going to be interesting.

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the direction is good, the question is specific execution. anyone can have a great idea, making it happen separates the good from the mediocre.

My guess would be that the overwhelming American threat created this supermajority. People are far less likely to vote for pluralism when there are enemies at the gate, and that is what US' threat to ratify a war over Taiwan act boils down to. Biden is giving similar vibes as Putin before Feb 24.

On one hand, I agree with @FairAndUnbiased that less experienced people could lead to less effective politics. At the same time, having an unified central committee means China will find it much easier to mobilize if needed.

Concerning China's problems, I don't think poor efficiency is nearly as dangerous as poor direction. China is sort of "too big to fail" in that it is already growing as the world's no1 economy even as the competition is in recession. That means even a poorly piloted China can win through sheer momentum, but the pilot must at least point the nose in the correct direction.

Therefore I can be concerned less about the individual politburo member resumes if it is so that they will all vote for legislation that defend China both at home and it's interests abroad. Even if it's bad legislation, just throwing the weight of the whole country at it will generate successes.

Biscuits said:

My guess would be that the overwhelming American threat created this supermajority. People are far less likely to vote for pluralism when there are enemies at the gate, and that is what US' threat to ratify a war over Taiwan act boils down to. Biden is giving similar vibes as Putin before Feb 24.

On one hand, I agree with @FairAndUnbiased that less experienced people could lead to less effective politics. At the same time, having an unified central committee means China will find it much easier to mobilize if needed.

Concerning China's problems, I don't think poor efficiency is nearly as dangerous as poor direction. China is sort of "too big to fail" in that it is already growing as the world's no1 economy even as the competition is in recession. That means even a poorly piloted China can win through sheer momentum, but the pilot must at least point the nose in the correct direction.

Therefore I can be concerned less about the individual politburo member resumes if it is so that they will all vote for legislation that defend China both at home and it's interests abroad. Even if it's bad legislation, just throwing the weight of the whole country at it will generate successes.

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Like you said, I'm not too worried like the right wing neolibs are about "collapse in 5 years". Through pure momentum and size, China can't fail. It's like a truck. What's dangerous is steering the truck wrong, not tapping on the brakes or driving cautiously.

However, the most dangerous thing in China is not any external force but internal power struggles.

FairAndUnbiased said:

How? Li never made national sci tech policy before. By what mechanism does he have of doing that?

Running a city and a country are totally different in scale and difficulty.

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You seem highly disappointed with the recent crop of leaders chosen as part of Xi's leadership team.


Time will tell if your concerns which you have laid out quite rationally will be proven to be correct which means calamitous situation for China, or this new team will be able to Herald to a much stronger China. We all hope for the best but the old adage of Absolute power, corrupts absolutely applies to anyone and everyone, including Pres.Xi

Bellum_Romanum said:

You seem highly disappointed with the recent crop of leaders chosen as part of Xi's leadership team.


Time will tell if your concerns which you have laid out quite rationally will be proven to be correct which means calamitous situation for China, or this new team will be able to Herald to a much stronger China. We all hope for the best but the old adage of Absolute power, corrupts absolutely applies to anyone and everyone, including Pres.Xi

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I am disappointed, but on the positive side if this power is used well and responsibly, and the leaders new to national power have the wisdom and humility of understanding the bureaucracies that they manage, then it's no big deal in the short term. In the long term, the precedent of stacking the PBSC is very bad for continuity of government. We've seen this before with Leonid Brezhnev's stacking of the Presidium in the USSR and hanging on for 18 years. It was a direct cause of Gorbachev rising. I hope Xi won't become a Brezhnev which leads to a power vacuum if he dies, and then a Gorbachev rises. The temporary risk has reduced, but the long term risk is still there.

And I have to be honest, the #1 danger for China in the long term is not US, Taiwan, Japan, petrodollar, etc because China is, like you said before, kinda too big to fail. China failing will drag the entire world down with it anyhow, and the added strategic deterrent ensures that. The biggest danger for China is a Gorbachev appearing because there wasn't enough time to prescreen all candidates before a strong old leader like Brezhnev bites the dust. The time was now to start preparing for a transition of government yet that did not happen.

Bellum_Romanum said:

You seem highly disappointed with the recent crop of leaders chosen as part of Xi's leadership team.


Time will tell if your concerns which you have laid out quite rationally will be proven to be correct which means calamitous situation for China, or this new team will be able to Herald to a much stronger China. We all hope for the best but the old adage of Absolute power, corrupts absolutely applies to anyone and everyone, including Pres.Xi

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Time are changing and Xi is the right man for China to deal with today and future geopolitical events. Therefore he will need all the absolute power he can get to deal with all those obstacles and external forces that's trying to contain China. Once China is rich superpower and mostly safe, than we will see a change in leadership.

Equation said:

Time are changing and Xi is the right man for China to deal with today and future geopolitical events. Therefore he will need all the absolute power he can get to deal with all those obstacles and external forces that's trying to contain China. Once China is rich superpower and mostly safe, than we will see a change in leadership.

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Leonid Brezhnev said the same thing, then a wild Gorbachev appeared, denounced him after he was dead, and collapsed the USSR within a few years. How did Gorbachev appear? Because he was young and untested yet there was no time to pick anyone else. CCCP never promoted other leaders from outside the Brezhnev circle regularly, and all the immediate successors like Chernenko and Andropov were old, weak leaders both politically and physically. They could never command the authority Brezhnev could, and so Gorbachev took over on a message of "reform".

FairAndUnbiased said:

I am disappointed, but on the positive side if this power is used well and responsibly, and the leaders new to national power have the wisdom and humility of understanding the bureaucracies that they manage, then it's no big deal in the short term. In the long term, the precedent of stacking the PBSC is very bad for continuity of government. We've seen this before with Leonid Brezhnev's stacking of the Presidium in the USSR and hanging on for 18 years. It was a direct cause of Gorbachev rising. I hope Xi won't become a Brezhnev which leads to a power vacuum if he dies, and then a Gorbachev rises. The temporary risk has reduced, but the long term risk is still there.

And I have to be honest, the #1 danger for China in the long term is not US, Taiwan, Japan, petrodollar, etc because China is, like you said before, kinda too big to fail. China failing will drag the entire world down with it anyhow, and the added strategic deterrent ensures that. The biggest danger for China is a Gorbachev appearing because there wasn't enough time to prescreen all candidates before a strong old leader like Brezhnev bites the dust. The time was now to start preparing for a transition of government yet that did not happen.

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And Hu Chunhua getting a seat would have changed all that, right?

ZeEa5KPul said:

And Hu Chunhua getting a seat would have changed all that, right?

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Sure as hell wouldn't hurt to have experienced potential successors lined up like Mao did and Brezhnev did not. Chen Min'er not making PBSC was also a surprise to me because he is actually Xi favored and was rumored as a top tier pick, but Hu was the big one.