They are not ordering any more engines because both the J-11B and J-11BS are using FWS-10. They will probably finish the remaining AL-31FNs off before installing WS-10As into the J-10s.
So anyone want to enlighten me as to what the chances are that China has reverse engineered the AL-31? I mean, if you can greatly expand its lifespan using more advanced materials...why couldn't you just build the engines yourself?
What remaining AL-31FNs? I think they ordered about 200 in total. But there are about 200 J-10's now. Some of the engines need to be set aside for spares too.And AL-31FN has a very short MTBO.
In other words, the numbers just don't add up anymore. The "maintenance program" for AL-31F seems to have gotten more and more advanced until it became just a reverse engineering program. If you can greatly expand its lifespan by replacing critical parts like turbine blades then you can build your own variant.
Replacing parts is a bit different from opening up an entire production line. It probably could be done, but it might not be worth the investment capital.
Given how invested PLAAF is in AL-31F variants -- J-11A, J-10, J-15 prototype and even J-20 prototype, it would be well worth the investment capital to produce its own AL-31F variant!
My view is that Chengdu AC doesn't like FWS10 because the manufacturer Liming is related to Shenyang AC. That is why CAC insists on AL-31FN on J-10s and AL-31F variant on J-20. Yet importing engines are expensive and no contracts with NPO Saturn have been signed for AL-31F since 2009. So what's the solution? Get a CAC affiliated body to do "maintenance" work on the AL-31F that eventually turns into a major lifespan upgrade and eventually they just build the whole thing themselves.
That's what the "prize" from Beijing to the "maintenance" engineer is for!