Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Month to month data is not important and fluctuating but the trend is up . I don't know where you get the data. Here is the latest on car purchase
Sales in 2017 was flat due to previous year splurge on car buying due to sales tax rebate. It isnow rebounding.Car ownership is still low in china something like 20% So it bound to go up

BEIJING – China's auto sales growth in January rebounded from the previous month's contraction, boosted by strong demand for SUVs.

An industry group, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said Friday sales of sedans, SUVs and minivans rose 10.7 percent from a year earlier to 2.4 million. Total vehicle sales including trucks and buses rose 13.6 percent to 2.7 million.

Sales of SUVs, which make up nearly half of purchases, rose 22.9 percent to just over 1 million. Purchases for electric and hybrid vehicles rose 430 percent, though from a low base, to 38,470.

China's auto industry is coming off lackluster 1.4 percent growth last year as the market paid back a 2016 surge following a sales tax cut that boosted purchases by 15 percent.

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I think you miss the point.

The current car production will create aprox. half as high car ownership numbers like in the UK IF the average car age will be 14 years ,like in the US.

Growing sales number ( let say 10% per year) sustainable only for 4-6 years, IF the Chines car ownership will be the same like in the UK.

But these numbers means that in say ten years time the per capita GDP has to be the same level like UK, and the consumption share as well.

It boiling down to 10% GDP growth, and 12-13% consumption growth for ten years.

The problem is the copy - past growth model ( like above with " China will subtitute US semi manufacturing" ) works up to this ( or up to 2008) point.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This is interesting I guess they want to encourage overseas Chinese to contribute to the development of China. It is a wise move because OC are some of the sharpest mind when it come to bussiness
I know the overseas Chinese representative in national congress has demanded this long term visa. I guess it strike a balance between Jus Sanguinis and the desire of allowing long term residency. Interestingly there is no limit to the generation

Few people know that in 60's about 150000 OC from SEA return to China At that time China was poor but she did send ships and facilitate them to resettle in their home province.But then the Cultural revolution run its course and many OC become victim of the purge and prosecuted due to their connection with outside world
At the end of CR they were allowed to leave China and many end up in Hongkong because at that time that is only place that allowed refugee from China to resettle. Now there are at least half million of their descendant in Hongkong
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China offers five-year visas to attract foreigners of Chinese descent to return to the Middle Kingdom
By Liu Meng Source:Global Times Published: 2018/2/8 16:58:39
a01362a0-a9ca-4556-94a0-37154d0193b7.jpeg

The new visa policy for foreigners of Chinese descent makes it easier for Chinese living overseas to "return home." Photo: VCG

Ashley, a 35-year-old Chinese-Filipina, could not have been more excited when she saw an online news story announcing a new visa policy for foreigners of Chinese descent on February 2. Her first reaction was to send the news link to the human resource department in her company, a Beijing-based consulting firm where she works as a director.

"It would be very handy to have one. I am not sure what the implications are if I already have a work visa versus getting this visa for overseas Chinese. I just think it will be great not to have to renew my visa every year," she told Metropolitan.

Starting from February 1, foreigners of Chinese descent are able to apply for a visa that allows them to stay in China for up to five years or enter the country multiple times over the same period once they meet the prerequisites, according to a new visa policy from the
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(MPS) on January 22.

Foreigners of Chinese heritage who want to come to China to visit their family and relatives, do business, have cultural exchanges or run personal errands can apply for a five-year multiple-entry visa, and those who already work, study, visit families and relatives or run personal errands in China and need to stay longer, can apply for a five-year residency permit, said the policy.

Before this policy, foreigners of Chinese descent could only get a one-year multiple-entry visa, and a residency permit spanning no more than three years in the country.

Qu Yunhai, the director of the Bureau of Exit and Entry Administration of the MPS, said in a January 22 press release that the policy aims to encourage and attract more foreigners of Chinese descent to participate in China's economic and social development.

"Over recent years, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments have promoted a series of measures to facilitate foreigners of Chinese descent to come to China. These policies have played a positive role in serving China's economic and social development and attracting talents with innovative and entrepreneurial spirit," said Qu in the release.

He added that the implementation of the new visa policy will make it more convenient for them to "return home."

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The new visa policy will have a significant impact on the lives of Chinese descendants who make frequent visits to China. Photo: VCG

Visa headache

Ashley's hometown in China is in Fujian Province. Decades ago, her grandparents emigrated from Fujian to settle in Manila. She now holds a one-year multiple-entry work visa which takes around two to three weeks to process.

She embraced the new visa policy because of the ease of getting in and out of China without having to renew her visa every year.

"It puts constraints on my personal schedule and company-related activities," she said.

Lu-Hai Liang, a 28-year-old British national, left Guilin in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region to join his parents in the UK when he was five. Since he still has family in Guilin, he applied for a Q2 visa in September last year. But he has to leave China every 120 days.

The second visa type under the Q category, the Q2 visa is for foreigners who come to China to visit Chinese citizens or foreigners with permanent residency. It allows a short-term stay of up to 180 days.

Fan Li'na, an official at the Entry and Exit Administration of the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau, told Metropolitan that the new policy toward foreigners of Chinese descent ensures them a longer residency in Beijing, reduces their visa processing frequency and cuts the cost associated with frequently entering and exiting the country. But they still have to make the cut to get access.

"The maximum period of the visas is five years. But whether one can get the visas with the longest period still depends on whether they meet set criteria," she said.

Based on the documents she gave to Metropolitan, an applicant needs to provide materials including proof of his or her previous Chinese nationality, such as a Chinese passport he or she owned in the past, an ID card, a birth certificate or household registration and so on to qualify.

According to a staffer surnamed Xiong who works in the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the Shanghai Municipal Government, documents proving Chinese descent include copies of the applicant's, their parents' or grandparents' Chinese passports or ID cards.

Marina Yang, a 24-year-old student in Sydney, usually gets a standard travel visa for 60 or 90 days to visit her hometown in Shanghai.

As the first child in her family to be born outside of China, she tries to visit her family in China every three to four years. She said the main difficulty is getting an invitation letter from busy family members and making sure she has all the right details for the trip.

"I usually don't need to go through the same process when I visit other countries, but I understand why it is part of the Chinese visa application," she said. "It's just to inform the Chinese authorities of your traveling intentions and the identity of the locals they can get in contact with if any issues arise."

Yang said she appreciates the added convenience of the new visa because it gives people the opportunity to make long-term plans for a career in China.

"It indicates to people that their talents and skills are welcomed and that they can make a home in China," she said.

Mary Peng, a Chinese-American in her 40s, told Metropolitan that the new policy could be attractive to many haigui (Chinese who studied abroad).

"A lot of haigui become citizens of their host countries. Many of them want to come back (to China) to work but may have been discouraged by the fact that having become a foreign citizen, they need to apply for a one-year employment visa to return to their homeland where they were born and raised," said Peng, who is the CEO and founder of International Center for Veterinary Services in Beijing.

Peng, whose hometown is in Henan Province, said if she had a 10-year tourist visa she would be able to visit her family in Henan any time she wants, but she would have to leave the country every 60 days.

According to Fan, Chinese-Americans who meet the criteria for the five-year visa for home visits can stay in the country for the entire five years, as they are not required to leave the country after a certain amount of days.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
A huge talent pool

According to Beijing-based think tank Center for China & Globalization's 2017 Report on China's Regional International Talents Competitiveness, almost 4 million of the current 60 million overseas Chinese in the world are professionals, including those who are foreign passports holders. They are also mainly employed in the fields of education, finance and high-tech. The report concluded that the professional group is a large overseas talent pool and a rich source of the kinds of talent that China hopes to attract.

It also noted that by the end of 2014, the percentage of foreign professionals in the Zhongguancun area had reached 0.56 percent, of which 74.86 percent were overseas Chinese.

Ashley hailed the new policy as a smart, decisive move by the government to recognize the presence and value of overseas Chinese and their role in the country's development.

"It (the policy) is also very important in terms of making it easier for overseas Chinese to discover or rediscover their roots and visit family on the Chinese mainland," she said.

"A couple of key factors that can contribute to its success would be if the process and requirements can be kept fairly simple and straightforward and if the cost is not unreasonable," she said.

In Peng's opinion, the policy will be more attractive to Chinese nationals who went abroad to study and became overseas citizens by marrying a local or converting their citizenship.

"However, for those who have not lived in China for a long time, it might not be as attractive because they don't know China very well," she said. "They have lots of other considerations and need a lot of time to really understand the opportunities and see what they can do to take advantage of them."

It is not the first time that the Chinese government released a policy that facilitates overseas Chinese.

In 2016, the MPS launched a pilot visa program to attract foreign professionals to develop Zhongguancun as a national center for science and technology innovation. According to the policy, foreigners of Chinese descent who have a foreign doctoral degree and work in Zhongguancun are eligible for permanent residency. Additionally, those who have worked for companies in Zhongguancun for four years and spend at least six months a year in China are also eligible, according to a 2016 Beijing Times report.


Already a Q2 visa holder, Liang said he would not apply for the new visa in the immediate future.

"I am fine with the requirement of leaving the country after certain days because I travel often anyway," he said.

However, he commended the move for acknowledging the pioneering and bold spirit of the Chinese who went abroad and their descendants.

"We are often entrepreneurial and resilient, and I have seen and heard firsthand their remarkable stories while traveling through Malaysia and Thailand," he said.

Liang said the government should encourage businesses and companies to employ foreign workers of Chinese descent.

"We are a bridge between the East and the West, and historically, overseas Chinese have been instrumental in forging cultural and economic links throughout Western countries, especially across Asia," he said.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The number I quoted is export of Soybean ONLY. Other agriculture export is much higher and China is #1 export market of American agi export and growing exponentially
Though the number of farmer is small but they form the base of Trumph constituent
Semiconductor cannot be substituted overnight It will take time But make no mistake China now is in process of replacing imported semiconductor with domestic one large multi billion dollar of FAB are being built in China
Still , the impact is no more than 10 000 job IF they have to burnt the production.

If not, then it will be few hundred or thousand farmer.

Sadly not the FABs are the problem, but the accumulated experience.
It is easy to make new machines and products, if you have the knowledge.
But without that the expensive machiens and buildings just waste the money by each passing days.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I think you miss the point.

The current car production will create aprox. half as high car ownership numbers like in the UK IF the average car age will be 14 years ,like in the US.

Growing sales number ( let say 10% per year) sustainable only for 4-6 years, IF the Chines car ownership will be the same like in the UK.

But these numbers means that in say ten years time the per capita GDP has to be the same level like UK, and the consumption share as well.

It boiling down to 10% GDP growth, and 12-13% consumption growth for ten years.

The problem is the copy - past growth model ( like above with " China will subtitute US semi manufacturing" ) works up to this ( or up to 2008) point.
Don't worry about us, baby, there are innumerate risks and dangers in every economy (especially when you look at the forest for the trees) but the Chinese economy always pulls through and grows strong, every time, every year. The Chinese economy is so reliably high-performing that any Ivy professor, any analyst from any financial firm in the world who tries to argue that China's economy will suffer from crisis can be easily taken down by someone completely uneducated in economics who just said, "You're wrong; wait 'till you see the growth numbers this year." K.O. every time. China's economy is so overpowered, you basically don't even have to look at data or analyze anything; if you bet on the Chinese economy, you'll win and if you bet against it, you'll lose, every time. You know how people say have faith in God but they still get fired from jobs/maimed in car accidents, etc...? I don't; I have faith in the Chinese economy, because it delivers strong every time.

If China ever besmirches its perfect track record of economic growth, then feel free to offer insights as to why you think this happened, but before then, you're just fantasizing about imaginary events.

Instead, worry about the economies that are historically proven to be highly prone to recession, such as Japan, or every country in the EU. They need your help and counsel; they need you to tell them what's wrong with their economies LOL
 
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supercat

Major
The trade of yuan oil futures is set to begin on Mar. 26.

Yuan oil futures set to challenge Brent, WTI
Long-anticipated move hopes to chip away at dollar’s grip on global markets

China’s big play to challenge dollar-denominated crude oil futures has been formally approved, marking another milestone in Beijing’s efforts to take a more prominent role on the world stage.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the move on Friday, Chinese news outlet
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, with trading on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange set to begin on March 26.

Ahead of the announcement, CSRC vice chairman Jiang Yang said that the move aims to welcome domestic and international investors and satisfy the demand for risk management of international and domestic businesses and investors alike.

China dethroned the US as the world’s biggest importer of crude oil last year.

As
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, if the yuan futures market attracts liquidity it will produce oil prices more closely linked to supply and demand in the Chinese market. One measure of the new contract’s success will be whether it actually threatens the dominance of the large global benchmarks such as Brent. Oil sold in Asia is now priced mainly against Brent, as well as against the Dubai and Oman benchmarks.

Overseas observers played down the significance, but acknowledged it is a material step towards reshaping markets down the road.

“This is a first small step toward China becoming a more active price setter in oil, but for Shanghai to come anything close to a global benchmark, it will take years,” Michal Meidan, an analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., was
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. “While this gives another impetus to liberalise the yuan, there are bigger obstacles related to volatility and capital outflows that will dictate the pace.”

Despite the reported skepticism from abroad, Chinese investors will no doubt embrace the domestic futures market enthusiastically, Bloomberg reports, citing the explosion in trading across the nation’s three commodity exchanges.

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broadsword

Brigadier
Wrong logic.

I looked after the consumer items with available statistics, and I found the cars/pork/phones, and the consumer debt to GDP number.

If you have statistics for any high ticket , mass consumed item,then fine ,please share it.

And the car / phone sales are weak compared to the US numbers, in China the demand for phones droped by 5%, in the US increased by 2-3%, on world level the demand increased by 8%.

Means it is NOT lack of new phones or whatever.

If you have same nice statistics about TV sets, furniture purchasing, school expenses or anything household related that can give even better pircture please share it.

Read what we posted about cars, cellphones and pork. Take your kind to think over before posting your rant over and over again.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Still , the impact is no more than 10 000 job IF they have to burnt the production.

If not, then it will be few hundred or thousand farmer.

Sadly not the FABs are the problem, but the accumulated experience.
It is easy to make new machines and products, if you have the knowledge.
But without that the expensive machiens and buildings just waste the money by each passing days.

It has nothing to do with job displacement It is to send message to republican rank and file that they will be hurt

No you got it wrong China has no problem designing chip Ever heard of Fabless IC company. They are plenty of design houses that can design chip.They then turn it over to foundry to make it like TSMC(Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company)

Because China don't have foundry. To begin with it take a lot of money to build foundry billion of dollar and the 2nd thing there are not that many Chip making machinery to make those chips . All of them are in the west and ITAR restrict the sale of those machinery to China

Only now China can make their own lithograph and other machinery to make chips And only now with the government support, they have the money to built those expensive foundry
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited (TSMC;
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: 台灣積體電路製造公司;
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: Táiwān Jī Tǐ Diànlù Zhìzào Gōngsī), also known as Taiwan Semiconductor, is the world's largest dedicated independent (
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)
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, with its headquarters and main operations located in the
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in
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,
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.


China IC design industry tops $30bn

China’s IC design industry revenue will reach $30 billion in 2017, says Trendforce, and a growth rate of 20% is expected to deliver $36 billion industry revenue in 2018.

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HiSilicon and Sanechips (ZTE Microelectronics) provide NB-IoT chipS, Cambricon Technologies and Horizon Robotics are developing AI chips. Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA, Datang, and HiSilicon have made chips for 5G.

Datang Semiconductor drops out of Trendforce!/ China top ten, with WillSemi and GigaDevice entering the list.

HiSilicon grew revenues more than 25% due to the increasing penetration rate of Kirin chips in phones.

Tsinghua Unigroup Subsidiaries Spreadtrum and RDA had a drop in revenue because of competition in the low- and mid-range mobile IC market.

Sanechips, whose core business is designing IC components for telecommunication applications, has grown revenues over 30%.

Huada Semiconductor makes ICs for smart cards, security ICs, analogue ICs circuit, and display drivers etc. Its 2017 revenue is expected to top $755 million.

Goodix had revenue growth of 25% as a result the increasing penetration rate of fingerprint recognition technology in smartphones.

GigaDevice, which enters the top 10 list for the first time, makes NOR Flash and 32bit MCUs. Its 2017 revenue is expected to increase by more than 40%, reaching $300 million.

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China gets big boost in semiconductor equipment localization

Jean Chu, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES [Friday 8 December 2017]
China has taken a big stride forward in the localization of semiconductor equipment needed to support domestic chip production, as some major equipment makers have achieved technological breakthroughs and successfully developed key equipment such as vertical oxidation furnaces and chemical-mechanical polishing equipment, according to industry sources.

The sources said that Beijing-based Naura Technology Group has recently installed a set of vertical oxidation furnace,THEORISO302, developed by its wholly-owned subsidiary North Microelectronics, at the 3D NAND flash chips production line of Yantze Memory Technologies (YMTC) under the Tsinghua Unigroup.

The THEORISO302 furnaces have also been adopted on the production lines of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and Shanghai Huali Microelectronics, with the equipment's processing applications covering logic, DRAM and NAND chips, the sources said.

So far, Naura Technology has successfully tapped into the mainstream semiconductor production lines in China with a spate of equipment including etching machines, PVD (physical vapor deposition), vertical oxidation furnaces, cleaning machines, LPVCD (low pressure chemical vapor deposition) and gas quality and flow controllers, among others. The company expects to have 40 more products verify by first-tier customers in China in 2018.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Funny how the British have such a superior economic system, they still have to beg to China.

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Yes, the British want China to give them access like how when the 2008 financial crisis hit, the US and Great Britain, the countries behind the 2008 financial crisis, were able to move money out from other countries to insulate themselves while leaving their allies vulnerable. Remember PIIGS?
 
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