broadsword
Brigadier
He is not even aware how moronic his logic is.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I don't care about China, I just looking for the next tipping point.
As it looks like the 2018 will be the year of China, as 2008 was the year of the US.
So, it doesn't matter where you are, but prepare for impact . : )
We are at the declinign stage of the globalisation, and the fregmentation of the world markets will maka everythign interesting and fast moving.
Anyway, doesn't matter how you try to spin the date, it looks bad.
Maybe the car sales will pick up, and in that case the central bank of china managed to puch more debt onto the middle class, but what? how many years it can get?
no more than four.
And it won't mean anything else the impact will be bigger at that point.
Another interesting point , TV set sales in China.
China's TV set sales see biggest drop in 14 years
China's TV set sales decelerated in 2017, marking the biggest drop in 14 years, a private report showed.
China sold 47.52 million television sets last year, down 6.6 percent year on year, the biggest decrease since 2003, according to a report from domestic home appliance market monitor All View Cloud (AVC).
Practicaly every high ticket / "premium consumer " (like pork) category that I check showing big drop.
China's TV set sales see biggest drop in 14 years
China's TV set sales decelerated in 2017, marking the biggest drop in 14 years, a private report showed.
China sold 47.52 million television sets last year, down 6.6 percent year on year, the biggest decrease since 2003, according to a report from domestic home appliance market monitor All View Cloud (AVC).
Practicaly every high ticket / "premium consumer " (like pork) category that I check showing big drop.
one brighst spot in the 2017 data, white goods.
China’s production of white goods – air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators and televisions – totaled 532 million mt in 2017, up 11% year on year, according to data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. This growth rate was the highest since 2012.
However it can be connected to the housing market, in that case it can be a lagging indicator compared to the FMCGs , cars and phones.
As it looks like the housing market syphoned out all money from the middle class, and the peak of this crazy party was 2017.
China’s production of white goods – air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators and televisions – totaled 532 million mt in 2017, up 11% year on year, according to data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. This growth rate was the highest since 2012.
However it can be connected to the housing market, in that case it can be a lagging indicator compared to the FMCGs , cars and phones.
As it looks like the housing market syphoned out all money from the middle class, and the peak of this crazy party was 2017.
digital technology maket in china is something complex. You can find spare parts of everything in very low prices and you can upgrade or even build a device much cheaper than to buy a new one manufactured by "x" firm so maybe this is not directly countable. i recently upgraded my 5 years laptop spending roughly 100 euros and now its comparable with a brand new 700-800 euros
machine.You can also take a look at the global shares of chinese hi tech and telecommunications companies. In Africa for exaple. Or huawei... You are surrounded, hands up yankees hahaha
machine.You can also take a look at the global shares of chinese hi tech and telecommunications companies. In Africa for exaple. Or huawei... You are surrounded, hands up yankees hahaha
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The number I quoted is export of Soybean ONLY. Other agriculture export is much higher and China is #1 export market of American agi export and growing exponentially
Though the number of farmer is small but they form the base of Trumph constituent
Semiconductor cannot be substituted overnight It will take time But make no mistake China now is in process of replacing imported semiconductor with domestic one large multi billion dollar of FAB are being built in China
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You sure spend a lot of time posting about shit you don't care about... Maybe that's why the EU can't get it's economy to grow; improper time investment.
OK, so you put a date on it. 2018, right? I would only have to say this to someone who can't even read a chart to determine if the EU or the US/China has higher nominal GDP/PPP, but I hope you know that in 2008, there was a recession, a reduction in GDP in the US. That means that you are predicting a recession in China's GDP this year. If it doesn't happen, I do expect you to put a staple right on your lips, the type people use for securing boards to a wall.
Oh, I'm prepared for the "impact." Question is, are you prepared for this time next year when they announce China's GDP grew ~6.5%. What you gonna say in 2019?
Most of the decline in globalization is caused by a proportional increase in your imagination.
That's only true for the EU. For China, doesn't matter how you spin it; data looks awesome, particularly the ~7% growth and total market expansion.
You have so little confidence in your words; you just said 2018, and now, in the same post, you try to weasel this date to 4 years or 2022? Well, that's very common for those who doubt China's rise. In 2018, they say 2022 will be the hard landing. Then in 2020, they say 2024. Then in 2022, it's 2026, and so on and so on until you get old and you're still saying, "It's 2056; just 4 or 5 more years, probably 2060, until the Chinese recession comes! Sofa sales were down 3% this month! Get ready for hard landing!" LOLOL
So... This means that 14 years ago, 2003, we already saw a drop of similar but greater magnitude and in that time period, China was growing at 8-10% annually, right? And now we see a smaller version. Oooooh, scary haha
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Month to month data is not important and fluctuating but the trend is up . I don't know where you get the data. Here is the latest on car purchase
Sales in 2017 was flat due to previous year splurge on car buying due to sales tax rebate. It isnow rebounding.Car ownership is still low in china something like 20% So it bound to go up
BEIJING – China's auto sales growth in January rebounded from the previous month's contraction, boosted by strong demand for SUVs.
An industry group, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said Friday sales of sedans, SUVs and minivans rose 10.7 percent from a year earlier to 2.4 million. Total vehicle sales including trucks and buses rose 13.6 percent to 2.7 million.
Sales of SUVs, which make up nearly half of purchases, rose 22.9 percent to just over 1 million. Purchases for electric and hybrid vehicles rose 430 percent, though from a low base, to 38,470.
China's auto industry is coming off lackluster 1.4 percent growth last year as the market paid back a 2016 surge following a sales tax cut that boosted purchases by 15 percent.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is more on car sales in China. Sales were down in 2017 due to higher sales tax and previous year splurging. this grpah below tell you that Chinese car market is the biggest in the world and still growing at double digit for a long time since car ownership in china is still low 20% vs 90% in developed world
China's auto sales post double-digit growth in January
Source:Xinhua Published: 2018/2/10 0:56:54
China's auto sales returned to double-digit growth in January due to a low base, data from an industry association showed Friday.
About 2.8 million vehicles were sold in January, up 11.6 percent year on year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
The growth was faster than the increase of 0.1 percent in December and 3 percent in 2017.
The CAAM attributed the surge to a relatively low base in the same period last year, noting that sales were down 8.2 percent from the previous month.
China's auto sales increased 13.7 percent in 2016, but the market was under pressure last year from government policy adjustments such as sales tax hikes.
In October 2015, the government slashed the sales tax on cars with engines of 1.6 liters or below from 10 percent to 5 percent to boost auto sales. The tax was raised to 7.5 percent in 2017 and then returned to 10 percent again in 2018.
New energy vehicle (NEV) sales were strong in January, soaring 430 percent year-on-year to reach about 38,000 vehicles, according to CAAM.
The robust growth came as China intensified efforts to encourage the use of NEVs to ease pressure on the environment, by offering tax exemptions and discounts for car purchases, and ordering government organizations to buy more new energy vehicles.
China remained the world's largest auto market in 2017, with some 28.88 million vehicles sold, according to CAAM.
In January, some 2.7 million vehicles were produced, up 13.6 percent year-on-year but down 11.6 percent month-on-month.
About 79,000 vehicles were exported, up 36.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the CAAM.
China is aiming to become a leading auto-maker within a decade by making breakthroughs in key technologies and markedly increasing the share of Chinese brands in the international auto market.
The government expects new energy vehicle output and sales to hit 2 million annually by 2020, and overall auto output to reach around 30 million by 2020 and 35 million by 2025, according to a plan released last year.
Posted in: ,BIZ FOCUS
China's auto sales post double-digit growth in January
Source:Xinhua Published: 2018/2/10 0:56:54
China's auto sales returned to double-digit growth in January due to a low base, data from an industry association showed Friday.
About 2.8 million vehicles were sold in January, up 11.6 percent year on year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
The growth was faster than the increase of 0.1 percent in December and 3 percent in 2017.
The CAAM attributed the surge to a relatively low base in the same period last year, noting that sales were down 8.2 percent from the previous month.
China's auto sales increased 13.7 percent in 2016, but the market was under pressure last year from government policy adjustments such as sales tax hikes.
In October 2015, the government slashed the sales tax on cars with engines of 1.6 liters or below from 10 percent to 5 percent to boost auto sales. The tax was raised to 7.5 percent in 2017 and then returned to 10 percent again in 2018.
New energy vehicle (NEV) sales were strong in January, soaring 430 percent year-on-year to reach about 38,000 vehicles, according to CAAM.
The robust growth came as China intensified efforts to encourage the use of NEVs to ease pressure on the environment, by offering tax exemptions and discounts for car purchases, and ordering government organizations to buy more new energy vehicles.
China remained the world's largest auto market in 2017, with some 28.88 million vehicles sold, according to CAAM.
In January, some 2.7 million vehicles were produced, up 13.6 percent year-on-year but down 11.6 percent month-on-month.
About 79,000 vehicles were exported, up 36.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the CAAM.
China is aiming to become a leading auto-maker within a decade by making breakthroughs in key technologies and markedly increasing the share of Chinese brands in the international auto market.
The government expects new energy vehicle output and sales to hit 2 million annually by 2020, and overall auto output to reach around 30 million by 2020 and 35 million by 2025, according to a plan released last year.
Posted in: ,BIZ FOCUS
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here it is China has 300 million car for 1.4 billion people roughly 22%
China now has more than 300 million registered vehicles – almost the same number as people in the United States – on its increasingly jammed roads.
The number of vehicles registered in China reached an all-time high of 300.3 million at the end of March, with cars accounting for two-thirds of that number, according to the traffic bureau of the Ministry of Public Security.
The US has a population of more than 324 million, according to its Census Bureau.
China, with 1.3 billion people, is quickly becoming a society on wheels, providing a market for carmakers from Volkswagen to Toyota and cultivating a fan base for movies like the Fast and Furious series. The eighth instalment of the movie, The Fate of the Furious, sold US$190 million worth of tickets over opening weekend in China, nearly twice the $100 million it made on opening weekend in the United States, according to Fortunemagazine.
However, China’s poor road designs, bad driving habits and expanding car ownership are creating serious pollution and congestion issues, even though on a per capita basis, China’s car density is much lower than that of the US.
According to the latest Tom Tom Traffic Index, 10 of the 25 most congested cities in the world are in mainland China, namely Chongqing, Chengdu, Beijing, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Shanghai and Tianjin.
According to AutoNavi, a major mapping service provider in China, Jinan was the city with the worst traffic congestion in the nation in the first quarter of this year, with average rush hour car speeds as low as 20km/h, followed by Harbin and Hohhot.
“The speed of growth [in car ownership] is very fast in China,” said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai consulting firm Automotive Foresight. “Cities will see more congestion.”
Janet Lewis, an analyst for the Asian auto market at Macquarie Capital Securities, said China’s traffic congestion is worsened by a high level of traffic accidents and illegal parking.
According to World Health Organisation estimates, in traffic accidents in China every year.
As the end of March, China had 49 cities with more than 1 million cars registered, and 19 cities with more than 2 million. Six major cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Chengdu, Suzhou, and Shenzhen – have more than 3 million registered cars.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Mainland roars past car ownership milestone
China now has more than 300 million registered vehicles – almost the same number as people in the United States – on its increasingly jammed roads.
The number of vehicles registered in China reached an all-time high of 300.3 million at the end of March, with cars accounting for two-thirds of that number, according to the traffic bureau of the Ministry of Public Security.
The US has a population of more than 324 million, according to its Census Bureau.
China, with 1.3 billion people, is quickly becoming a society on wheels, providing a market for carmakers from Volkswagen to Toyota and cultivating a fan base for movies like the Fast and Furious series. The eighth instalment of the movie, The Fate of the Furious, sold US$190 million worth of tickets over opening weekend in China, nearly twice the $100 million it made on opening weekend in the United States, according to Fortunemagazine.
However, China’s poor road designs, bad driving habits and expanding car ownership are creating serious pollution and congestion issues, even though on a per capita basis, China’s car density is much lower than that of the US.
According to the latest Tom Tom Traffic Index, 10 of the 25 most congested cities in the world are in mainland China, namely Chongqing, Chengdu, Beijing, Changsha, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Shanghai and Tianjin.
According to AutoNavi, a major mapping service provider in China, Jinan was the city with the worst traffic congestion in the nation in the first quarter of this year, with average rush hour car speeds as low as 20km/h, followed by Harbin and Hohhot.
“The speed of growth [in car ownership] is very fast in China,” said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai consulting firm Automotive Foresight. “Cities will see more congestion.”
Janet Lewis, an analyst for the Asian auto market at Macquarie Capital Securities, said China’s traffic congestion is worsened by a high level of traffic accidents and illegal parking.
According to World Health Organisation estimates, in traffic accidents in China every year.
As the end of March, China had 49 cities with more than 1 million cars registered, and 19 cities with more than 2 million. Six major cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Chengdu, Suzhou, and Shenzhen – have more than 3 million registered cars.
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Mainland roars past car ownership milestone