Chinese Economics Thread

[Blitzo]

.... or maybe membership has its privileges? Anybody care to guess how many of these female billionaires is a member of the CCP? Maybe the system is so entrenched that it is highly efficient in minting Billionaires at the expense of the common people that doesn't have the political connections. In the US they called it wealth redistribution except in China it works in reverse.

This is a tangent of a previous discussion that we've had before, which is your previous claim somewhere along the lines that much of the middle class and/or upper middle class are either in the govt or have connections in the govt, and I replied that for such a specific claim to be made we'd need some sort of statistics regarding the wealth of govt officials and individuals close to them in China vs the wealth of govt officials and individuals close to them in other nations and to compare them to check for any significant differences.

In regards to female billionaires, it would actually be a little bit easier because of lists such as the Hurun rich list, and one could individually check the backgrounds of everyone there to discern for any sort of political connections. If a significant proportion of the individuals on the list did have those connections you'd think it would have been reported on given the list should be fairly public knowledge. Of course it's always possible that such connections are simply very well hidden, but in that case one can use "political connections" as a means of dismissing any sort of achievement or progress in the country. It's also important to be able to attribute causality -- i.e.: that one's wealth was garnered due to their political connections, and that they did not simply form political connections once they had garnered a certain level of wealth and/or influence (the latter of which is fairly natural in all nations).


And as with the last time that we discussed this, I'd also be very careful in using the phrase wealth redistribution, because the phrase generally refers to decreasing the wealth of one group of individuals for the sake of increasing the wealth of another group as a part of an economy-wide basis as part of deliberate policy, whereas what you're describing in China can more accurately be described as graft (such as officials seizing land with improper compensation).

 

[vesicles]

It's mathematically impossible for the majority of the middle and upper middle class in China to be mostly CCP. The CCP has a total number of ~60 million. China's population is >1.3 billion. Even if we assume only 20-30% of the population is middle class (this would definitely be an underestimate), that's close to 400 million. Even if ALL CCP members are middle class, that's still a small % (~15%) of the total middle class in China.

 

[Blitzo]

It's mathematically impossible for the majority of the middle and upper middle class in China to be mostly CCP. The CCP has a total number of ~60 million. China's population is >1.3 billion. Even if we assume only 20-30% of the population is middle class (this would definitely be an underestimate), that's close to 400 million. Even if ALL CCP members are middle class, that's still a small % (~15%) of the total middle class in China.

I'm sure they would say that the other proportion of the middle class were family members or close friends of the officials...

There's no way about it -- for almost every single positive or progressive development that comes out of China it is possible for one to come up with and strongly defend a hypothesis that sounds logical to try and dismiss or criticize any development made, even if there is little or no evidence to suggest such a hypothesis.

Nothing wrong with that, everyone holds their own fundamental world views about things and would interpret developments and evidence in a way most congruent with their own views... and that cuts both ways

 

[AssassinsMace]

So does the communist party just throw money at women until they have billions? Want to talk Europe how it's a classist society? Same with some "approved" Asian countries. So if it were the case, the only difference is biased prejudice. It's only wrong when the Chinese do it. The irony is China and the US are probably the only two countries where you can start from the bottom to get to the top. And let's not forget that in China the female rich aren't pigeon-holed into female-related businesses either.

It's mathematically impossible for the majority of the middle and upper middle class in China to be mostly CCP. The CCP has a total number of ~60 million. China's population is >1.3 billion. Even if we assume only 20-30% of the population is middle class (this would definitely be an underestimate), that's close to 400 million. Even if ALL CCP members are middle class, that's still a small % (~15%) of the total middle class in China.

Facts don't matter with the pride police.

 

[Brumby]

I'm sure they would say that the other proportion of the middle class were family members or close friends of the officials...

There's no way about it -- for almost every single positive or progressive development that comes out of China it is possible for one to come up with and strongly defend a hypothesis that sounds logical to try and dismiss or criticize any development made, even if there is little or no evidence to suggest such a hypothesis.

Nothing wrong with that, everyone holds their own fundamental world views about things and would interpret developments and evidence in a way most congruent with their own views... and that cuts both ways

China annually spends more on internal security than on the military. Facts are difficult to come by when journalist working on gathering facts or in publishing them are either imprisoned or kidnapped. Case in point when China recently resorted to kidnapping HK journalist.

If you can't imprison or kidnap them, the state can always resort to coercion.

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week gathered the heads of the country’s largest media organisations — the ones controlled by the Chinese Communist Party — and told them exactly how the news was to be be reported.

All news media run by the Party must work to speak for the Party’s will and its propositions and protect the Party’s authority and unity, Xi said.

They should enhance their awareness to align their ideology, political thinking and deeds to those of the CPC Central Committee and help fashion the Party’s theories and policies into conscious action by the general public while providing spiritual enrichment to the people, he said.

Xi went on to say that all journalists should have a Marxist education and that managing the media’s message is “crucial for the Party’s path, the implementation of Party theories and policies, the development of various Party and state causes, the unity of the Party, the country and people of all ethnic groups, as well as the future and fate of the Party and the country.”

Xinhua News was represented at the meeting, as was The People’s Daily, and China Central Television (the only licensed TV broadcaster in the country).

There are levels to this stuff
This is all worth noting because while it’s always been tough to be journalist in China, it’s getting even harder as the country’s economy slows down and President Xi Jinping feels the need to prepare for hard times to come.

“Restrictions on print media tightened during the year, as did pressure on investigative journalism and liberal media outlets,” wrote press freedom watchdog Freedom House in its

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“Journalists who attempted to investigate or report on controversial issues, question CCP rule, or present a perspective that conflicted with state propaganda directives faced harassment, dismissal, and abuse.”

The higher the risk there is of party friction under duress, the more Xi Jinping tightens his grip on the country. The press has been ramping up its pro-party talk since 2013, when Xi because president. At that point, though, there was some debate in China circles as to whether or not Xi himself was completely behind it all.

Now we know he was.

Observers only expect things to get worse, as investor and author Bill Bishop

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The Party is back to the fore in a way it has not been for many years, and do not expect that to be a good thing. Foreigners toiling for Party media like CCTV America should understand that the Party views them not as journalists but as “news workers” in the service of the Ministry of Propaganda in its external propaganda efforts, efforts that Xi made clear in his comments last week should be expanded.

Xi doesn’t just say things to say them, he expects everyone to act on them too.

 

[Blitzo]

China annually spends more on internal security than on the military. Facts are difficult to come by when journalist working on gathering facts or in publishing them are either imprisoned or kidnapped. Case in point when China recently resorted to kidnapping HK journalist.

If you can't imprison or kidnap them, the state can always resort to coercion.

So therefore your suggestion is that any potential hypothetical idea which could paint the government in a bad light is thus valid and should be considered, because the lack of evidence or reporting of it means it is very likely that the government is actively suppressing it and thus any hypothetical idea which could paint the govt in a bad light should be seriously entertained despite a lack of evidence?

I don't think anyone is denying that the govt controls a good portion of the media within China and actively seeks to regulate what can and cannot be reported in a number of sensitive fields.
But there is a difference between acknowledging that statement, vs using it as a premise for suggesting that any fanciful hypotheses could be logically entertained and that the lack of supporting evidence is thus a non-issue.

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Also, I'm not sure what that article meant by "Xinhua News was represented at the meeting, as was The People’s Daily, and China Central Television (the only licensed TV broadcaster in the country)."

I'm pretty sure there are much more TV broadcasters in China than CCTV... I'm pretty sure there's a large number of other broadcasters other than CCTV. I think they're equating CCTV with all govt or provincial TV networks, where in reality it is merely one of many even though it is technically the largest.

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I also don't know what internal security vs military spending has to do with anything, considering the time internal security began to slightly edge out military spending (began four or so years ago I think), it coincides quite well with when the situation in Xinjiang began to exacerbate and intensify. You'd certainly hope they'd have invested more in internal security as things became more serious there.

 

[AssassinsMace]

If China spends more money on internal security than the military, where's all the money they hand to communist party women so they can make the richest self-made women in the world list?

Fishing.

 

[Brumby]

Actually, it's quite the opposite. Vast majority of the self-made entrepreneurs in China are not CCP. So much so that Jiang Zemin, a former Chinese president, specifically suggested that the CCP should focus more on entrepreneurs as targets of CCP recruitment.

A study in 2008 reported that 34 % of private entrepreneurs are members of the CCP up from 19 % in 2000 (Source : Kellee Tsai 'China's complicit capitalists', Far eastern economic review, Jan 2008). If you believe that economic opportunities and political connections are not tightly related in China, I guess you are free to discount anything. Do you think that percentage would not have further increased since?

BTW, isn't wealth redistribution another way of saying socialism?

In the US that would be yes and hence I said it has the reverse meaning in China where wealth is redistributed from the masses to the elite. For example, in a study by the CCP's own research arm, 3,220 Chinese citizens with a personal wealth in excess of 100 million yuan, 2,932 are children of high-level cadres. Of the senior positions in the five industrial sectors, 85 - 90 % are held by children of high level party officials (Source : Carslen Holz. "Have China's scholars all been bought? Far Eastern Economic Review April, 2007"). I guess the research would have more problems establishing relationships like relatives, in-laws and mistresses.

Isn't the idea of capitalism that individuals should be given opportunity to maximize his/her potential?

That is the idea of capitalism if the playing field was level. However we are talking about capitalism with Chinese characteristics, aren't we?l

 

[AssassinsMace]

Next thing they'll say you'll have to eat eggs and waffles in the morning to be a real capitalist. Again ignore the classism in Europe where basically your stuck in the same place your parents were born. Doesn't sound so capitalist to me.

 

[Brumby]

So therefore your suggestion is that any potential hypothetical idea which could paint the government in a bad light is thus valid and should be considered, because the lack of evidence or reporting of it means it is very likely that the government is actively suppressing it and thus any hypothetical idea which could paint the govt in a bad light should be seriously entertained despite a lack of evidence?

If are asking for evidence but if evidence are difficult to come by because they are typically repressed or supressed then your point is borderline rhetorical in nature.