Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1878817062237135126

so this will be interesting for me to watch at least. How many Western central bank head or treasuries or finance ministers come to China in the next few years pretending to be "tough on China" while privately beg for more bond purchases.

This ain't the 2013 to 2016 period anymore.

Scott Bessent has a tough job on hand.

 

[HighGround]

Like I said before, you can't effectively maintain a manufacturing-based economy with an over valued currency because mature manufacturing is fundamentally a race to the bottom. Profit margins are razor thin, and operating with an over valued currency in this space is like fighting with both hands tied behind your back. That's why the US chose to focus on profit-rich industries like software where it could dominate its rivals through first move advantage, and out sourced profit-poor manufacturing to its vassals.

I wouldn't necessarily make a statement like this. Especially when we are in the midst of significant technological change. Cost advantages may accumulate to a point of where it is not efficient to outsource.

Furthermore, we are returning to an age or mercantalism, while capital flows are significantly different from the 18th century, I would argue we are once again at a point of where industry will largely stay in one place.

 

[supercat]

China's auto industry in 2024 (passenger cars + commercial vehicles):

• Sales +3.7% to 31.28 million units

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1878696751386841174

• Exports +23% to 6.41 million units
• Imports -12% to 700,000 units

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1878709540071624878

China's foreign trade in 2024:

• Total: +3.8% to $6.16 trillion
• Exports: +5.9% to $3.58 trillion
• Imports: +1.1% to 2.59 trillion
• Balance: surplus of $992 billion

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Did China grow only at 2-3 percent as some Western MSM claim?

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[StraightEdge]

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[GulfLander]

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Is their framing that XHS is Chjna's answer to instagram?

 

[Serb]

China's foreign trade in 2024:

• Total: +3.8% to $6.16 trillion
• Exports: +5.9% to $3.58 trillion
• Imports: +1.1% to 2.59 trillion
• Balance: surplus of $992 billion

I think I’m starting to understand why exports constantly keep rising sharply even with the global economy in such a slump.

It turns out that when Western economies take a hit and interest rates go up like now, global buyers feel the pressure.

With tighter budgets, they stop caring so much about brand prestige or flashy marketing and focus more on what’s affordable and reliable. And more often than not, that means they turn to products from China, and then they also learn that those don't lack anything.

This is why China manages to stay steady during tough times, still casually contributing about a third of global growth. If you dig a little deeper, though, you’ll probably find that their share is even bigger in real terms. Others may buy less in total, but more from China.

It’s also why, no matter how hard the West tries, they just can’t seem to move away from relying on Chinese products more.

This economic crisis in the West is actually beneficial for China, it makes it easier to grab some permanent market shares.

 

[luminary]

I think I’m starting to understand why exports constantly keep rising sharply even with the global economy in such a slump.

It turns out that when Western economies take a hit and interest rates go up like now, global buyers feel the pressure.

With tighter budgets, they stop caring so much about brand prestige or flashy marketing and focus more on what’s affordable and reliable. And more often than not, that means they turn to products from China, and then they also learn that those don't lack anything.

This is why China manages to stay steady during tough times, still casually contributing about a third of global growth. If you dig a little deeper, though, you’ll probably find that their share is even bigger in real terms. Others may buy less in total, but more from China.

It’s also why, no matter how hard the West tries, they just can’t seem to move away from relying on Chinese products more.

This economic crisis in the West is actually beneficial for China, it makes it easier to grab some permanent market shares.

Agreed. Impoverishment of Europe has been an great boon to China. The poorer they are the more fractured and attached to China they will become. It's not something for them to decide. Supremacist minds are opened when the stomach is starving.

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[GiantPanda]

This is just the yearly growth in electricity demand.

That is just the growth in economic activity is demanding power bigger than what SKorea, Germany or Brazil needs in their entirety:



Note: India's demand is a 1/6th of China but more than Germany and Japan combined. Energy consumption tracks PPP GDP fairly accurately.

Nominal GDP puts the US over China and Japan over India. Which is idiotic when you look at the consumption of the basic blocks of modern economy -- steel, electricity, rare earths, etc. Nominal seems tailor-made as a Western tool to proclaim "they will never pass us." LOL

 

[doggydogdo]

This is just the yearly growth in electricity demand.

That is just the growth in economic activity is demanding power bigger than what SKorea, Germany or Brazil needs in their entirety:

View attachment 143320

Note: India's demand is a 1/6th of China but more than Germany and Japan combined. Energy consumption tracks PPP GDP fairly accurately.

Nominal GDP puts the US over China and Japan over India. Which is idiotic when you look at the consumption of the basic blocks of modern economy -- steel, electricity, rare earths, etc. Nominal seems tailor-made as a Western tool to proclaim "they will never pass us." LOL

Unironically End of History is coming soon lol, give it 10 years and China is going to completely uproot the system, Cheap Chinese solar and Cheap battery would bring unprecedented prosperity to the world. remember outside China there's only about 1 billion living in advanced countries; I'm confident China is going to bring humanity into a golden age!

 

[GiantPanda]

Unironically End of History is coming soon lol, give it 10 years and China is going to completely uproot the system, Cheap Chinese solar and Cheap battery would bring unprecedented prosperity to the world. remember outside China there's only about 1 billion living in advanced countries; I'm confident China is going to bring humanity into a golden age!

It will bring the REST of the world into the Golden Age. The West will put down a tariff curtain.

I see a day when Chinese EUVs are churning out cheap 1nm chips in Nigeria while the US and Western countries are still sourcing TSMC at four times the price (more if from a TSMC plant in US or EU.) A phone made in Ethiopia with a Chinese supply chain will be 10 times cheaper than Apple but with a better chipset and better OS.

Chinese EVs with 1000 miles per charge built in Mexico will be smuggled into Texas and California.

West will survive for decades behind that tariff wall but Chinese products, especially capital equipment and infrastructure, will make the rest of the world, the Global South, wealthy and advance which in turn will create more business for China.

Unlike the Western dominated world order where a select few like Japan or Taiwan are given a chance at advancement, the Chinese one because of the affordability and availability of Chinese capital and supply chains will be infinitely wider in scope.