Chinese Economics Thread

[Staedler]

China's economy definitely is over 2x bigger than India's but being bigger than Japan, Germany and France combined isn't that surprising considering India has more people than the entire OECD.

An estimate can be obtained via median income x population vs stated total GDP to see what portion is invisible to the average Joe.

$42,220 for the US at 333.29 million people is $14 trillion. This vs the stated $27.7 trillion nominal GDP.

The median income in China is around 116,274 RMB per household (avg size of 3). So for 1417.57 million people and a PPP factor of 3.64, that is $15.1 trillion. This is vs $17.8 trillion nominal and supposedly $41 trillion by PPP.

India's "deprived" class is roughly half of the country's population so the break-off point can roughly approximate the median income. It is 150,000 rupees per household (avg size of 4.8), 1457.95 million total population, PPP factor of 20.2 for a resulting $2.3 trillion. This vs $3.6 trillion nominal and $21.9 trillion by PPP.

Japan is at 3.6 million yen for 125.12 million people with PPP factor of 94.68 resulting in $4.8 trillion. Again, $4.3 trillion nominal and $6.2 trillion by PPP.

Germany has a median of 51,876 euros for 84.29 million people and PPP factor of 0.7 resulting in $6.2 trillion vs $4.5 trillion nominal and $5.9 trillion by PPP.

You can see, India (like the US) has the majority of it's "GDP" captured by the upper section of society. And given producer power comes from mass affluence, not elite affluence, I would say India isn't anywhere close to Europe or Japan. This is before accounting for any possibility of cooking the books.

 

[azn_cyniq]

Sharing this one from NYT.

VVVVVVVVVVVV

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China’s vast exports in 2024 exceeded its imports on a scale seldom seen anywhere except during or immediately after the two world wars.

China announced on Monday that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion last year as its exports swamped the globe, while the country’s own businesses and households spent cautiously on imports.

When adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century, even those of export powerhouses like Germany, Japan or the United States. Chinese factories are dominating global manufacturing on a scale not experienced by any country since the United States after World War II.

The outpouring of goods from Chinese factories has drawn criticism from an ever-lengthening list of China’s trade partners. Industrialized and developing countries alike have erected tariffs, attempting to slow the tide. In many instances, China has

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

in kind, bringing the world closer to a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that could further destabilize the global economy.

President-elect

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, who will take office next week, has threatened to escalate already aggressive American trade policies aimed at China.

On Monday, China’s General Administration of Customs said that the country exported $3.58 trillion worth of goods and services last year, while importing $2.59 trillion. The resulting surplus of $990 billion broke China’s previous record, which was $838 billion in 2022.

Strong exports in December, including some that may have been rushed to the United States before Mr. Trump can take office and start raising tariffs, propelled China to a new single-month record surplus of $104.8 billion.

While China ran a deficit in oil and other natural resources, its trade surplus in manufactured goods represented 10 percent of China’s economy. By comparison, U.S.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

on trade surpluses in manufactured goods peaked at 6 percent of American output early in World War I, when factories in Europe had mostly stopped exporting and shifted to wartime production.

Many countries seek trade surpluses in manufactured goods because factories create jobs and are important for national security. A trade surplus is the amount by which exports exceed imports.

China’s exports of everything from cars to solar panels have been an economic bonanza for the country. Exports have created millions of jobs not just for

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, whose inflation-adjusted wages have about doubled in the past decade but also for high-earning engineers, designers and research scientists.

At the same time, China’s imports of factory goods have slowed sharply. The country has pursued national self-reliance over the last two decades, most notably through its

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

policy, for which Beijing pledged $300 billion to promote advanced manufacturing.

(...)

This is great, but my takeaway from this is that China could realistically grow at much higher rates than 5% a year if domestic consumption recovers. China still has so much potential.

 

[tphuang]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Trade between China and Russia hit all time high of $244.8B despite various bumps along the way this year due to western sanctions. China exported $115.5B (up 4.1% YoY). Imported $129.3B, flat YoY.

China mainly exported electronics, transport and chemical production. Russia is China's 5th largest trade partner after USA, Korea, Japan and Vietnam