Chinese Economics Thread

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azn_cyniq

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Sharing this one from NYT.

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China’s vast exports in 2024 exceeded its imports on a scale seldom seen anywhere except during or immediately after the two world wars.

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China announced on Monday that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion last year as its exports swamped the globe, while the country’s own businesses and households spent cautiously on imports.

When adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century, even those of export powerhouses like Germany, Japan or the United States. Chinese factories are dominating global manufacturing on a scale not experienced by any country since the United States after World War II.

The outpouring of goods from Chinese factories has drawn criticism from an ever-lengthening list of China’s trade partners. Industrialized and developing countries alike have erected tariffs, attempting to slow the tide. In many instances, China has
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in kind, bringing the world closer to a
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that could further destabilize the global economy.

President-elect
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, who will take office next week, has threatened to escalate already aggressive American trade policies aimed at China.

On Monday, China’s General Administration of Customs said that the country exported $3.58 trillion worth of goods and services last year, while importing $2.59 trillion. The resulting surplus of $990 billion broke China’s previous record, which was $838 billion in 2022.

Strong exports in December, including some that may have been rushed to the United States before Mr. Trump can take office and start raising tariffs, propelled China to a new single-month record surplus of $104.8 billion.

While China ran a deficit in oil and other natural resources, its trade surplus in manufactured goods represented 10 percent of China’s economy. By comparison, U.S.
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on trade surpluses in manufactured goods peaked at 6 percent of American output early in World War I, when factories in Europe had mostly stopped exporting and shifted to wartime production.

Many countries seek trade surpluses in manufactured goods because factories create jobs and are important for national security. A trade surplus is the amount by which exports exceed imports.

China’s exports of everything from cars to solar panels have been an economic bonanza for the country. Exports have created millions of jobs not just for
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, whose inflation-adjusted wages have about doubled in the past decade but also for high-earning engineers, designers and research scientists.

At the same time, China’s imports of factory goods have slowed sharply. The country has pursued national self-reliance over the last two decades, most notably through its
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policy, for which Beijing pledged $300 billion to promote advanced manufacturing.

(...)
This is great, but my takeaway from this is that China could realistically grow at much higher rates than 5% a year if domestic consumption recovers. China still has so much potential.
 

tphuang

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Trade between China and Russia hit all time high of $244.8B despite various bumps along the way this year due to western sanctions. China exported $115.5B (up 4.1% YoY). Imported $129.3B, flat YoY.

China mainly exported electronics, transport and chemical production. Russia is China's 5th largest trade partner after USA, Korea, Japan and Vietnam
 

GOODTREE

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First province! Guangdong's economy to reach a new level of 14 trillion yuan

GUANGZHOU, Jan. 15 (Xinhua News Agency) (Reporter Wu Tao, Zhou Ying) The reporters learned from the opening of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress of Guangdong Province on the 15th was informed that Guangdong's gross regional product in 2024 is expected to step on a new stage of 14 trillion yuan, ranking first in the country for 36 consecutive years. This is China's first province with an economic output exceeding 14 trillion yuan.

  In 2024, Guangdong's industrial value added above scale will grow by 4.2%, and there will be about 74,000 industrial enterprises above scale. Industrial investment exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%, investment in technological transformation increased by 11.5%, 24 consecutive months to maintain double-digit growth, the manufacturing industry as the home base of the family is more solid, a lot of new areas of the new track to establish a first-mover advantage.

  In 2024, Guangdong's advanced manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing added value accounted for the proportion of industry above designated size increased to 56.7%, 31.6%, new energy vehicle production increased by 43%, industrial robot production increased by 31.2%, smartphone production increased by 12.5%, integrated circuit production increased by 21%.

  Guangdong focuses on promoting industry and science and technology to promote mutual reinforcement, it is expected that in 2024, the province's R&D expenditure will be about 510 billion yuan, the R&D investment intensity will be about 3.6%, and there will be about 77,000 high and new technology enterprises.

  As a major foreign trade province, in 2024, Guangdong's total import and export volume exceeded 9 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8%, with the total volume ranking first in the country for 39 consecutive years. Meanwhile, the net increase of business entities is 980,000, exceeding 19 million, of which more than 8.3 million are enterprises, the total number of which ranked first in the country.

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antiterror13

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First province! Guangdong's economy to reach a new level of 14 trillion yuan

GUANGZHOU, Jan. 15 (Xinhua News Agency) (Reporter Wu Tao, Zhou Ying) The reporters learned from the opening of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress of Guangdong Province on the 15th was informed that Guangdong's gross regional product in 2024 is expected to step on a new stage of 14 trillion yuan, ranking first in the country for 36 consecutive years. This is China's first province with an economic output exceeding 14 trillion yuan.

  In 2024, Guangdong's industrial value added above scale will grow by 4.2%, and there will be about 74,000 industrial enterprises above scale. Industrial investment exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%, investment in technological transformation increased by 11.5%, 24 consecutive months to maintain double-digit growth, the manufacturing industry as the home base of the family is more solid, a lot of new areas of the new track to establish a first-mover advantage.

  In 2024, Guangdong's advanced manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing added value accounted for the proportion of industry above designated size increased to 56.7%, 31.6%, new energy vehicle production increased by 43%, industrial robot production increased by 31.2%, smartphone production increased by 12.5%, integrated circuit production increased by 21%.

  Guangdong focuses on promoting industry and science and technology to promote mutual reinforcement, it is expected that in 2024, the province's R&D expenditure will be about 510 billion yuan, the R&D investment intensity will be about 3.6%, and there will be about 77,000 high and new technology enterprises.

  As a major foreign trade province, in 2024, Guangdong's total import and export volume exceeded 9 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8%, with the total volume ranking first in the country for 39 consecutive years. Meanwhile, the net increase of business entities is 980,000, exceeding 19 million, of which more than 8.3 million are enterprises, the total number of which ranked first in the country.

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2.7X the economy of Taiwan
 

tonyget

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Korea Imposes 21.62% Provisional Anti-dumping Duty on Chinese Stainless Steel Plates​



The Trade Commission of the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy has decided to recommend the Ministry of Economy and Finance impose a provisional anti-dumping duty of 21.62% on Chinese stainless steel plates. This decision, announced on Jan. 16, comes as a response to the severe impact of low-priced Chinese products on the domestic steel industry, particularly in the shipbuilding sector.

The government has decided to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on stainless steel plates imported from China. These provisional duties can be imposed even before the completion of the main anti-dumping investigation, offering a potential respite for the steel industry, which has been struggling due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products. The final conclusion on the anti-dumping investigation is expected to be announced around June after public hearings and on-site inspections.

Stainless steel plates, which refer to products with a thickness of 4.75mm or more and a width of 600mm or more, are mainly used in shipbuilding. Despite the recent boom in the shipbuilding industry, domestic steel companies have not benefited much because shipbuilders have significantly increased their use of low-priced Chinese plates. According to the Korea Iron & Steel Association, as of October last year, the import volume of plates from China was 1.158 million tons, surpassing the total import volume of 2023, which was 1.123 million tons. Industry sources indicate that the price of Chinese stainless steel plates is 6.32% cheaper than domestic products.

China has been experiencing a surge in production due to an excess supply of steel production facilities. However, domestic demand in China has been declining due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the real estate slump, leading to an oversupply. China is exporting this surplus at low prices worldwide, causing headaches for global steel companies. The Trade Commission's decision to impose high provisional duties was based on the severe impact of the distribution of low-priced Chinese products.
 

styx

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Nowadays, many journalists in the West believe that China's growth statistics are unreliable. They think that China is actually in a full-blown recession. What is their source? "Trust me, bro," stuff seen on Chinese social media (obviously without even citing the posts) and $1.4 billion in American funds set aside by Biden to finance anti-China campaigns. How long will China tolerate this situation? What do you think would be the most appropriate response?
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