Chinese Economics Thread

GiantPanda

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That obviously means that PPP is not a good metrics either then. Its even worse then nominal. Lol

The best metrics might be simple consumption of a basket of goods and energy. That would show straight forward spending power.

But PPP is much better than nominal, maybe with the exception of India. Like everything else, it is reliant on the data being used.

Nominal completely messes up the top three. It's obvious that China is larger than the US and India through energy expenditure is larger than Japan. Do we really think Japan has an economy that is bigger than a nation that has 12 times its population?
 

GiantPanda

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Maybe PPP is more effective during war or emergencies..

Obviously, Nominal is rather iffy when used as a proxy for war obviously since it effectively puts the US over a nation with more than twice the electricity generation, 12x steel production and 230x more shipbuilding capacity. (The US could very well win through far more experience in killing people but it won't win in a WWII type war of attrition.)

That said, using PPP is far better for companies looking to invest in and sell to the local market anywhere in the world. You need proper local pricing.

Nominal works best if you are sitting in your home office (usually in the West and Japan) and you are selling stuff made at home and only collecting USDs from your customers for exports. All you need then is just an exchange rate.

Obviously, using just an exchange rate doesn't work today and hadn't since the early post-WWII days when the US had the only significant industrial capacity left after a global war.

Companies need to invest in and sell to countries all over the world and they arbitrage in local pricing. No company worth its salt sticks to some USD dominated exchange rate without nuance.

PPP is not only better at predicting resources at war but infinitely better at determining business strategy during peacetime.
 

zbb

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The US throws everything into its GDP, the bottom of the barrel has already been scraped clean:

"By category, illegal drugs add $111 billion to measured nominal GDP in 2017, illegal prostitution adds $10 billion, illegal gambling adds $4 billion, and theft from businesses adds $109 billion. Real GDP and productivity growth also change."
Source: International Monetary Fund

Next major expansion of US GDP will be adding imputed prostitution of people sleeping with their spouses/GF/BF to GDP.
 
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tphuang

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so this will be interesting for me to watch at least. How many Western central bank head or treasuries or finance ministers come to China in the next few years pretending to be "tough on China" while privately beg for more bond purchases.

This ain't the 2013 to 2016 period anymore.

Scott Bessent has a tough job on hand.
 
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