Chinese Economics Thread

[GiantPanda]

Just read it.. curious who supplied him w people to eat dinner with/interview while in CN... his last line:

"The demand from Chinese consumers is there. I’d say it’s time for China’s leaders to let their people have more of the supply. It would be good for both our countries."

I thought they dont like oversupplies? Wont that mean they have oversupplies that they want to sell to CN consumers?
He wants CN to allow "taylor swift concerts" etc? While allow US to tariff CN goods? Isnt it kinda 1 sided tho? He also seem suggested to graduate more nurses than engineers...

Yeah lots of those typical antiCN phrases every now and then in the article.. but has some more realistic lines than other articles..

It is anti-Chinese bullsh1t.

China doesn't supply its people? China's biggest advantage in exports is its economy of scale in the Chinese domestic market!

That fucker is bald-face telling us that Chinese people are not consuming when it buys twice the amount of cars as the US and consumes twice the electricity with a nominal per capita income a fifth of that of the US.

China overconsumes for its income level by a wide margin.

He basically wants tariffs on China and wants China to stop investing in R&D and manufacturing so Chinese people can consume Western (not Chinese) culture like fucking Taylor Swift. To hell with that advice.

China needs to manufacture everything because the US and its allies will embargo whatever China cannot produce.

 

[GulfLander]

 

[zbb]

It is anti-Chinese bullsh1t.

China doesn't supply its people? China's biggest advantage in exports is its economy of scale in the Chinese domestic market!

That fucker is bald-face telling us that Chinese people are not consuming when it buys twice the amount of cars as the US and consumes twice the electricity with a nominal per capita income a fifth of that of the US.

China overconsumes for its income level by a wide margin.

He basically wants tariffs on China and wants China to stop investing in R&D and manufacturing so Chinese people can consume Western (not Chinese) culture like fucking Taylor Swift. To hell with that advice.

China needs to manufacture everything because the US and its allies will embargo whatever China cannot produce.

As posted previously in this thread, China's manufacturing production is 35% of the global total - more than the next 9 countries combined, but China's manufacturing exports are just 20% of the global total while the next 9 countries combined account for 40% of global exports - double that of China. In other words, Chinese manufacturing is actually much more geared toward domestic consumption than that of other top manufacturing nations.

Chinese Economics Thread

One interesting observation I've found browsing through the IMF's April 2024 World Economic Outlook statistics is this: In terms of nominal GDP at current prices, the US-China gap is actually widening the US' lead and China's GDP has essentially plateaued since 2021 up to the IMF's estimated...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[tphuang]

View attachment 141116

I must say this again, please do not post large photos of articles or tweets.

If you must post articles, provide link and then quote the portion you want to emphasize.

If you want to tweet, post the twitter link and change x.com to twitter.com for the twee to show up correctly.

If you continue to ignore this message, you will be given a week vacation,

 

[SanWenYu]

Yield of 1 year RMB bond dropped below 1% for the first time since 2009.

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中国1年期国债收益率跌至1%，为2009年来的首次。

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[tphuang]

reminder that US 1 year treasury yield was close to 0% for much of 2009 to 2021

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Germany's 1 year bond was negative for much of 2010s

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From a debt point of view, having 1 to 4% yield on bond (across the yield curve) is good when it comes to government managing debt as long as it's not just your central bank buying up all the bond to suppress yield.

For different country, there is different implication. Not a fan of everyone going to Japan every time low yield is discussed.

 

[mossen]

Obsessing over yield isn't really relevant IMO, because the central bank of any country with a sovereign currency can just buy up all the debt if it wants to. That's why "China holds US treasuries, checkmate America" was always a dumb talking point. It never mattered.

Japan's problem isn't low yields but very high gross debt to GDP, which limits how high their interest rates can be. But they are in a category of their own and have few if any comparable countries.

 

[zbb]

reminder that US 1 year treasury yield was close to 0% for much of 2009 to 2021

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Germany's 1 year bond was negative for much of 2010s

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

From a debt point of view, having 1 to 4% yield on bond (across the yield curve) is good when it comes to government managing debt as long as it's not just your central bank buying up all the bond to suppress yield.

For different country, there is different implication. Not a fan of everyone going to Japan every time low yield is discussed.

Not to mention these countries had near zero or negative interest rates in periods where their inflation were substantially positive. Even now, 2-year German government bonds are yielding just 2% while Germany's inflation in November was 2.2% YoY so the real yield (after adjusting for inflation) is actually negative. Because inflation in China is ~zero, the real yield for Chinese government bonds are still very much positive for all durations and longer duration Chinese government bonds have similar real yields as US government bonds and higher than most other Western countries.

 

[tphuang]

Not to mention these countries had near zero or negative interest rates in periods where their inflation were substantially positive. Even now, 2-year German government bonds are yielding just 2% while Germany's inflation in November was 2.2% YoY so the real yield (after adjusting for inflation) is actually negative. Because inflation in China is ~zero, the real yield for Chinese government bonds are still very much positive for all durations and longer duration Chinese government bonds have similar real yields as US government bonds and higher than most other Western countries.

View attachment 141209

Probably why personal and institutional investors in China still buy CGBs. Unfortunately, when the stock market is struggling, this is also another signal that institutional investors are putting more money in bond market because they don't feel safe having it in other asset classes.