Chinese Economics Thread

[lcloo]

I don't know much about China's economy but I do know that since Malaysia opened out visa free entries for Chinese tourists, there is a huge influx of people coming in from China and they are among the highest spending tourists group, and many of them are young people with a lot of money.

We are expecting 5 million Chinese tourists in 2025, to spend USD6.75 billion in Malaysia. If the young people are so hard hit by bad economy in China, where did they get the money to travel?

I also see Xiaomi Su7 EV and Huawei Mate 70 phones etc sold like hot cake, reaching billion yuans of sales within 24 hours. is China's economy bad? I find it hard to believe the nay sayers.

 

[fishrubber99]

Patrick from Pictet Asset Management has a thread with their Chinese economic figures updated with the latest November NBS data, credit impulse seems to be improving which implies China reaching their goal of "around" 5% economic growth this year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868627032449679578

 

[Michaelsinodef]

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Anyone familiar with Gao Shanwen? What's the context of his career?

He's a clown.

The "real growth has actually been 3% below official numbers for years/decades" of his is essentially something he made up, without strong backing of any real data.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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Anyone familiar with Gao Shanwen? What's the context of his career?

Doesn't even matter who he is. Western journalism is basically follows this ladder: first try to find that one Chinese guy who says something bad or something they want to hear about China, then call him a top level expert and pretend no other Chinese experts exist. If they can't find him, pick some Chinese hanjian in an American University to say it instead. If they can't get that, find a white guy who claims to be a China expert. If they're really coming up short cus they want something said that's so retarded that nobody wants their name affiliated with, they'll just say they're quoting an anonymous source in China who requested his personal information withheld to protect him/his family from the CCP.

 

[PeoplesPoster]

What if these crabs were 'bathed' in the lake for 2 days? Are they 'not from Yangcheng Lake'?

What if the iPhone at 10 screws finalized in Vietnam? Are they not made in Vietnam?

no, pretty sure the law in Vietnam is that 40% value added needs to be local in order to qualify for made in Vietnam.

 

[abenomics12345]

no, pretty sure the law in Vietnam is that 40% value added needs to be local in order to qualify for made in Vietnam.

The majority of the CPV standing committee was removed from power in the past 6 months. You really think that place operates by law? Lol

 

[drowingfish]

China is going through a massive real estate de-leveraging and a massive trade and tech war where the US is doing all it can to retard Chinese growth.

And it is going through a massive restructuring from a RE-led economy to a R&D/High Technology manufacturing one.

The RE crisis alone should have crushed growth and stifled demand. In the 2008 RE crisis, the US went into outright recession and electricity demand plummeted 4.2% in 2009.

China's electricity demand in 2023 increased by 7% and it is on track to grow by that much again this year.

People caught up in the Western narrative for China refuse to see how incredible any growth is and how immensely potent this constant surge in electricity demand is and how well this bodes for the future:
View attachment 140983

All economic activity in a modern economy run on electricity.

correct, up til last year China was actually pressing on the brakes through de-leveraging. In general policies had been restraining growth, such as banning of tutoring. It is quite easy to run up the numbers if that is all the CCP cares about, but that is not what they are doing.

 

[antwerpery]

The most important thing is that China stays on top of technological development, even if GDP growth is stagnating. Don't want to turn into Japan or Europe after all. In the 18th century, China and India had the vastly larger GDP then all European nations, but of course a large economy based mainly on agriculture couldn't compete with industrial nations.

I think the concept of GDP is gonna get a little weird in the coming decades, just like it did in the 18th century. In a world where human labor drives every part of the economy, GDP makes sense. In an increasingly automated world where production exceeds consumption because most of the human workers are replaced by robots, what does the economy, global trade and GDP look like? You could have weird scenarios where a nation's GDP is super low because the majority of the population lives on welfare because the robots took most of the jobs and the economy is super efficient, so money doesn't get exchanged much, but is so automated and efficient that they can do shit like pump out dozens of aircraft carriers in a year and for a fraction of the prize. Compared to a country with low automation that has a very healthy consumer class and thus GDP, but everything they make is super expensive, labor and time consuming, meaning their actual production of material goods is tiny compared to the automated nation.

 

[drowingfish]

The most important thing is that China stays on top of technological development, even if GDP growth is stagnating. Don't want to turn into Japan or Europe after all. In the 18th century, China and India had the vastly larger GDP then all European nations, but of course a large economy based mainly on agriculture couldn't compete with industrial nations.

I think the concept of GDP is gonna get a little weird in the coming decades, just like it did in the 18th century. In a world where human labor drives every part of the economy, GDP makes sense. In an increasingly automated world where production exceeds consumption because most of the human workers are replaced by robots, what does the economy, global trade and GDP look like? You could have weird scenarios where a nation's GDP is super low because the majority of the population lives on welfare because the robots took most of the jobs and the economy is super efficient, so money doesn't get exchanged much, but is so automated and efficient that they can do shit like pump out dozens of aircraft carriers in a year and for a fraction of the prize. Compared to a country with low automation that has a very healthy consumer class and thus GDP, but everything they make is super expensive, labor and time consuming, meaning their actual production of material goods is tiny compared to the automated nation.

Lenin already has the answer to that. excess production creates pre-condition for war. on the one hand, states are fighting for control of external market, on the other hand, war also creates demand for industrial goods.

 

[lcloo]

The most important thing is that China stays on top of technological development, even if GDP growth is stagnating. Don't want to turn into Japan or Europe after all. In the 18th century, China and India had the vastly larger GDP then all European nations, but of course a large economy based mainly on agriculture couldn't compete with industrial nations.

I won't call a GDP growth rate of 4.9% to 5.0% stagnant. "Stagnant" is just a mis-information narrative by western media bashing China. What about the Indonesia's 2023 5.01% growth rate, certaintly Indonesia's GDP is not stagnant, right?