Chinese Economics Thread

[abenomics12345]

Again, you're going to need to post some proof for those claims.

Literally my grandparents' complex. Lol.

In the case of Wuxi Biologics is being banned from using ThermoFisher then there's no business to be done with the FDA or EMA anyhow. If they can ban them from using ThermoFisher arbitrarily they can just directly revoke their GMP certification arbitrarily.

They thought the same would happen for Chinese semiconductor industry yet what happened? Chinese fabs were forced to work to certify AMEC and NAURA, their revenue is skyrocketing.

You should stick to semiconductors - because the US is the largest drug market just as China is the largest chip market.

 

[canniBUS]

Literally my grandparents' complex. Lol.



You should stick to semiconductors - because the US is the largest drug market just as China is the largest chip market.

Source, trust me bro. Now prove that people wielded into their homes happened in apartments involved in the Xinjiang fire and was a factor in the deaths.

 

[SanWenYu]

Mod showed he is not "sleepystudent". No need to accuse him. He also appears to be much smarter. I guess that makes him "sleepyprofessor"? I kid.

The current sleepystudent clone is chough34, who is banned from the thread. He gets to be promoted to sleepyTA for dodging ban for so long.

I did not accuse him of being Sleepy. I was just pointing out that he shares certain views of the latter, if we can call those nonsense “views”.

 

[gelgoog]

You should stick to semiconductors - because the US is the largest drug market just as China is the largest chip market.

A lot of the profit in the US drug market is made by middlemen. Pharmacy benefit managers. If you think the drug companies themselves make most of the profit, quite often this is not the case.

 

[lube]

Source, trust me bro. Now prove that people wielded into their homes happened in apartments involved in the Xinjiang fire and was a factor in the deaths.

Lockdown hurdles indirectly contributed to fire deaths -> people dying from fires because they're welded in their homes after several rounds of telephone.

If smart people on the internet, (assuming internet users think they're smarter than other people). can spontaneously generate misinformation and conspiracies and turn them into common sense knowledge, what do we say about the 1/2 of people less smart than the average person?

Think your point about people easily falling to influence campaigns is apt. Most of the time, facts are true because they feel right.

 

[horse]

China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September​

By Bloomberg News
September 12, 2024 at 4:05AM EDT

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If this story turns out to be true, it would appear that the government is starting to do something.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1834481059247128775

 

[broadsword]

Deflation is not just prices of things going down, but rather the *expectation* of future prices. When you believe things are going to get cheaper in the future, you defer consumption - why pay more now when you can get things for cheaper and better in the future? The fact that the country has been experiencing deflation in the longest period since 1998 (and soo to be longer), that changes the expectations/mentality of the average population. And this is where the Japan experience comes into play - wages in Japan started shrinking, hiring fell, etc.

For example, current housing starts/sales are already below the expected replacement + household formation + urbanization rates - meaning that people are deferring purchases. I.E this is already happening in housing.

There is a limit to how long people can defer their purchases, even in your housing example. When people need a roof over their heads, like the newlyweds, they have to put a downpayment already.

White-label-ization is also happening in all the product categories:

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(You may very well believe that Wuliangye is a waste and that people shouldn't ever waste money on that, but newsflash, Yibin Government would go bankrupt if Wuliangye collapsed. This is before the obvious question of who died and made *your* values the be all end all *societal* values?)

Why is that bad or wrong? It's the people's choice and free market at work. Who knows whether the Yibin government will go bankrupt or not? If it went under, that would be a parable to learn from.

As the others had written, China's deflationary pressure was brought about by the decline in the property sector. But China is adjusting its growth model away from reliance on that sector.

 

[broadsword]

Alternative views of deflation

Threat of Deflation is Exaggerated​

JULY 02, 2003​

​

Mark Weisbrot
Knight-Ridder/Tribune Information Services, July 2, 2003
A specter is haunting America (and Europe) — the specter of deflation. Talk of deflation has moved financial markets, influenced the statements of the Federal Reserve, and gotten a lot of people worried that the United States could be headed toward a prolonged period of economic stagnation.

The most feared example is that of Japan, which has been mired in a slow-growth swamp since its stock market and real estate bubbles burst in 1989.
What is deflation and how much should we be worried about it? Deflation refers to a sustained fall in the general price level — the opposite of inflation. Most of us are not old enough to have lived through the Great Depression, so although we have seen falling prices for individual products (for example, computers) we have not experienced a prolonged drop in overall prices

There is no doubt that deflation, were it to happen here, could create problems for our economy. But the threat has been exaggerated, and misunderstood, in several ways.
First it is important to realize that if the Consumer Price Index were to turn negative for a few months or even a year, this would not necessarily spell doom for the U.S. economy. The scary scenario that is often presented is a vicious cycle: the Fed can’t lower interest rates below zero, so that weapon is gone when prices are falling. Consumers postpone purchases that they know will soon be cheaper, further reducing demand. Debtors (most consumers and home buyers) see the value of their debts rise relative to their incomes and other prices.

But most of this scenario is true when there is no deflation but inflation is falling — for example, when the rate of inflation drops from 4 percent to 2 percent. And with short-term interest rates now at 1.0 percent, the Fed is already at the point where it doesn’t have much left in the way of stimulating the economy through lower short-term rates.

The real danger comes if deflation persists — then the problem of falling demand and increasing debt burdens become cumulatively worse. But there’s no need to panic: it’s not that difficult for policy makers to make prices rise if they really want to do so. The central bank (our Federal Reserve) can create all the money that it wants to create, and thereby drive prices back up.

The Japanese Central Bank was not aggressive enough in doing this, but that doesn’t mean that our Fed would have to make the same mistakes. It’s true that central banks tend to err on the side of slow growth — most of our recessions in the post-World-War- II period (including the one before last, 1990-91) were actually brought on by the Fed raising interest rates at the wrong time, or too much.

But that is a different problem — a political one. It means that if deflation were to start, our elected officials and the public might have to pressure the Fed to do the right thing. It does not mean that deflation is inherently a vicious cycle that, once begun, is difficult to break out of.
Prolonged deflation is not all that likely anyway, at least for now. The Fed recognized that in their May 6 meeting, seeing it as “only a remote possibility,” partly because the dollar’s decline against foreign currencies will raise the price of our imports. Interestingly, the Fed’s public statement at the time was different, giving the financial markets the impression that the Fed saw deflation as a more serious danger.

Of course, our economy still faces serious weaknesses: business investment has yet to recover, and consumers can only add so much to their debt, which is already at record levels relative to income. The weak labor market adds to the problem of lack of demand, as do the massive spending cutbacks (and some tax increases) by financially strapped state governments.

And perhaps worst of all, there is a bubble in housing prices — similar to the stock market bubble that burst in 2000 — that could “disappear” some $3 trillion in homeowners’ wealth.

So there are plenty of rocks in the road to economic recovery. No need to be overly alarmist about the dangers of deflation.

 

[N00813]

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Not sure if posted before, I can't get through search function to work.

Some here were concerned about whether people will get the housing they paid for.

China’s housing regulator pledged to swiftly implement a program to purchase unsold apartments and turn them into affordable housing, its latest effort to cushion a record property slump.

The government will also push forward renting and selling public housing units as soon as possible when conditions are right, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Dong Jianguo said in a briefing in Beijing on Friday.

The country has formed a top-down plan to win the “uphill battle” of ensuring home delivery, the vice minister said. Since mid-May, the housing authority teamed up with the banking regulator and the National Administration of Financial Regulation to conduct comprehensive reviews on 3.96 million residences scheduled to be delivered this year, he added.

People “have paid money, so they should get their homes,” Dong said.

Chinese banks have approved about 1.4 trillion yuan of bank credit to more than 5,300 property projects on a “white list,” the vice minister added. The list was drawn up last year for developers eligible for financial support to complete projects.