Chinese Economics Thread

[proelite]

Maybe they're just waiting for a rate cut by the Fed like everyone else.

 

[canniBUS]

We are in 2024...so lets talk about problems in 2024. What you don't appreciate is that people are not SCVs in Starcraft to boss around - they will leave and revolt if pushed too heard. As we've seen in Nov 2022, people did indeed flip the table on Covid restrictions and they're not exactly fond of the government for that.

Is there evidence that those protests were organic? It could be certain elites using existing grievances to force policy in a direction favorable to them.

 

[abenomics12345]

Is there evidence that those protests were organic? It could be certain elites using existing grievances to force policy in a direction favorable to them.

Lol - how stupid do you think Chinese people are - that they can be easily influenced by the stupid foreign press?

Domestic press....is party controlled?

And by the way, this was right *AFTER* 2021 when *EVERYONE* was super confident about how China was doing the best in the world?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

LOL. Dude. You would have kept a semblance of credibility if you named Morimatsu or Tofflon as potentially interesting companies in the supply chain, but instead you managed to select some bucketshop. Look up the shareholder list of Morimatsu and you'll know they are well aware of this and have been trying to get over these risks. But they are probably 5+ years away. So until then you are at whims of ThermoFisher.

Warfare has costs? Is this your Ted Talk?

You are preaching to the converted - I am *well* aware of these policies - I've stated many times I think this is highly successful and correct.

But my question comes back to: Is anyone here claiming EUVs are....operational in 2024?

Otherwise, live in 2024, not 2030.

...no?

In semiconductor, an analogous situation, the greatest barrier to domestic equipment was market momentum. When faced with the choice of buy Chinese or die, fabs chose to buy Chinese.

That's just how it will be. If Wuxi Biologics dies by choice because it would rather go out of business than use non-ThermoFisher bioreactors then someone else will take their place.

Bioreactors are much lower tech than etch and deposition tools, btw. Aqueous solutions of ~7 pH and ~room temperature requiring only sterility are nothing compared to vacuum chambers that must not only resist fluorine plasmas at 400C but cannot even produce particles in the process.

 

[henrik]

ASML is required to use cymer as a condition of acquisition.

If ASML wants to do business in China in the future, the requirement is to use Chinese light source. ASML will loose business to Chinese competitors worldwide. They way for them to get around this is to set up joint ventures with Chinese companies.

 

[abenomics12345]

If Wuxi Biologics dies by choice because it would rather go out of business than use non-ThermoFisher bioreactors then someone else will take their place.

FDA/EMA can tell you to fuck off - neither you nor your customers have any choice.

Your customers can redirect volumes to Lonza or Boehringer or Samsung Biologics.

Bioreactors are much lower tech than etch and deposition tools, btw. Aqueous solutions of ~7 pH and ~room temperature requiring only sterility are nothing compared to vacuum chambers that must not only resist fluorine plasmas at 400C but cannot even produce particles in the process.

Yes, the entire US population, would totally believe/trust you, the anon on SinoDefenceForums, about what drugs are safe or not safe.

If ASML wants to do business in China in the future, the requirement is to use Chinese light source. ASML will loose business to Chinese competitors worldwide. They way for them to get around this is to set up joint ventures with Chinese companies.

Oh they absolutely *want* to do business in China - but as we've seen abundantly clear - they are forced by the US to not do certain business in China.

 

[canniBUS]

Lol - how stupid do you think Chinese people are - that they can be easily influenced by the stupid foreign press?

Domestic press....is party controlled?

And by the way, this was right *AFTER* 2021 when *EVERYONE* was super confident about how China was doing the best in the world?

I mean domestic elites trying to sway policy, just like in 1989. Also, it's laughable to say domestic press is controlled by the government when all sorts of anti-government media exists on the internet both within the firewall and without.

 

[abenomics12345]

I mean domestic elites trying to sway policy, just like in 1989. Also, it's laughable to say domestic press is controlled by the government when all sorts of anti-government media exists on the internet both within the firewall and without.

Propaganda only works well when the reality is close to the messaging being propagated. So if there was any 'narrative domestically' - it was pretty close to reality. There were indeed people getting welded into their homes - if you recall it was the Xinjiang fire that killed people because they couldn't leave their homes that drove people onto the streets.

 

[canniBUS]

Propaganda only works well when the reality is close to the messaging being propagated. So if there was any 'narrative domestically' - it was pretty close to reality. There were indeed people getting welded into their homes - if you recall it was the Xinjiang fire that killed people because they couldn't leave their homes that drove people onto the streets.

Again, you're going to need to post some proof for those claims.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

FDA/EMA can tell you to fuck off - neither you nor your customers have any choice.

Your customers can redirect volumes to Lonza or Boehringer or Samsung Biologics.



Yes, the entire US population, would totally believe/trust you, the anon on SinoDefenceForums, about what drugs are safe or not safe.

In the case of Wuxi Biologics is being banned from using ThermoFisher then there's no business to be done with the FDA or EMA anyhow. If they can ban them from using ThermoFisher arbitrarily they can just directly revoke their GMP certification arbitrarily.

They thought the same would happen for Chinese semiconductor industry yet what happened? Chinese fabs were forced to work to certify AMEC and NAURA, their revenue is skyrocketing.