This was written in 2005 - you can replace the dates with 2024 and update the numbers and not have to change anything else. Another "20 years" of "zomg this is unsustainable" is.....not imminent doom?
Chinese Economics Thread
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This was written in 2005 - you can replace the dates with 2024 and update the numbers and not have to change anything else. Another "20 years" of "zomg this is unsustainable" is.....not imminent doom?
They can also cut costs by... not using that electricity.
And Cymer would also collapse as ASML is its sole customer, with the difference that but there's no other buyer for EUV and DUV light sources.
And Wuxi Biologics can buy bioreactors from elsewhere including . In exchange drug development costs for Wuxi Biologics customers skyrocket.
Maybe stick to your claimed expertise.
Financialization does not change physical facts, it only makes $9 bushings cost $90k.
proelite
Junior Member
Did you forget to log out of one of your burner accounts?
I hope you realize that you just gave the best argument there is for Xi's industrial policies. The US will no longer be able to harm China (whether or not it sinks ASML is irrelevant) if China can produce world-leading DUV and EUV lithography machines. The US cannot shut down Wuxi Biologics if Chinese companies make their own first rate bioreactors. The US cannot bring the Chinese economy to a halt by blockading oil if China installs massive renewable and nuclear energy, rolls out green hydrogen, and electrifies its transport sector.
Ripping out the US's claws is China's principal, overriding security and economic interest, and the only way to do that is by comprehensively upgrading the industrial and technological capacity of the Chinese economy and moving it to the forefront of innovation - real, technological innovation, not creative financial chicanery.
This will require obscene sums of money to accomplish and there's no way to do it without leaving behind a graveyard of failed ventures. To be perfectly blunt, the money to do this is going to come out of the Chinese people's pockets and there's no better way to get it from them than to leave them no choice but to sock it away in a bank. They won't be able to "invest" in a cratering real estate market, or the gambling den of a stock market, or spend it on frivolities.
They put it in the bank where the government takes it and funds the industrial policies with it. This is the real economic shakedown @gelgoog was talking about. A good name for it would be "productive austerity."
What happens a decade or two from now when this program has run its course and China is the undisputed world leader in every technological field is another matter.
Perhaps why some thought him an alternative account of Sleepy.
Interesting take. I have pretty much the same view of the problem but the opposite view of the solution. As you say, everyone was perfectly aware of the housing bubble, but the huge pain required to fix it caused previous leadership to kick the can. Until 2020, of course. And what fills the enormous gap in economic activity left by property? Manufacturing, of course. Others have already provided the graphs for the transfer from property to industrial investment. Where do all those extra manufactured goods go? Exports, of course. What happened during covid? Everyone except China handed out demand-side stimulus packages. So you have lots of Chinese supply, plus lots of global demand. For years. Which is exactly how you get graphs like this:
In my view, covid provided the perfect cover for China to achieve years of painful rebalancing while most of the world was not paying attention. It's still not finished, of course, and more countries are complaining more now. But it was a big boost.
LOL. Dude. You would have kept a semblance of credibility if you named Morimatsu or Tofflon as potentially interesting companies in the supply chain, but instead you managed to select some bucketshop. Look up the shareholder list of Morimatsu and you'll know they are well aware of this and have been trying to get over these risks. But they are probably 5+ years away. So until then you are at whims of ThermoFisher.
This isn't to mention that 75% of Wuxi Biologics' customers are in the US/EU - good luck convincing the FDA/EMA to approve your House Brand Bioreactor.
I'll actually bring this up to Chris Chen the next time I meet him - given how farfetched you are from reality.
Warfare has costs? Is this your Ted Talk?
@pbd456 answered you right here.
You are preaching to the converted - I am *well* aware of these policies - I've stated many times I think this is highly successful and correct.
But my question comes back to: Is anyone here claiming EUVs are....operational in 2024? @FairAndUnbiased @ZeEa5KPul Anyone?
We are in 2024...so lets talk about problems in 2024. What you don't appreciate is that people are not SCVs in Starcraft to boss around - they will leave and revolt if pushed too heard. As we've seen in Nov 2022, people did indeed flip the table on Covid restrictions and they're not exactly fond of the government for that.
...no?
Uou misunderstood me - I meant domestic 2022 lockdowns as the problem.
I 100% agree with what you said in terms of the window of opportunity for manufacturing in 2020/2021 and it absolutely lessened the pain - if anything recall domestic discourse re: confidence in China - that was the absolute high.
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Yeah, I agree. Everyone is just waiting.
Including the government, they are just waiting too. But for what?
The stock market in China, they are waiting. Everyone is waiting.
Maybe it is the geopolitical situation. The US presidential election is just two months from now.
Kind of surprised myself that the CCP has chose to be this patient.
Even though, the CCP still has ample policy levers and maneuvering room, for fiscal stimulus, for monetary stimulus, but they went the laissez-faire route of letting the exports grow in doing more business, and the stated directed approach of encouraging more tech investment.
Maybe the CCP is actually waiting for the EUV to appear inside China, that way that removes a potential bottleneck to the economy. If they commit the money for a stimulus, and uh-oh no EUV and running out of chips, then that is a real downer.
Maybe China is just a difficult place to govern, so sometimes got to wait because no one is on the same page.
Guess is my view. Things are not that great, it is not that bad either. So that being the case, I think things are pretty good! Hehe.
Must admit kind of impressed on how passionately everyone argued about things, which is essentially either 1% or 2% of GDP growth for China in any given year. You guys really care. That is good!
On one point I completely agree with you. Something will change, and it will have to be soon.
If President Trump returns, have to expect the CCP to try to turn the Europeans some more, and make bets in that direction.
If the West collectively becomes more protectionist, have to expect the CCP to obviously look harder internally to solve growth issues.
Realistically, cannot expect them to commit either way until we know more, and the CCP is rather cautious by nature.
Mod showed he is not "sleepystudent". No need to accuse him. He also appears to be much smarter. I guess that makes him "sleepyprofessor"? I kid.
The current sleepystudent clone is chough34, who is banned from the thread. He gets to be promoted to sleepyTA for dodging ban for so long.