Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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It will fade with time, especially as their country becomes poorer (worse reputation) and Quality of their product falls (both relative to competition, but possibly also in actual production quality as things worsen in their country).
The protection will succeed, on paper. China will hit back, turning any survivor into zombies through lack of market, resource access. Zombies will make crap products, high price, but survive. Its people will suffer low quality of life. The zombies feeling secured by states, deteriote further because no incentives to make good products. They are state backed monopolies. The society then implodes soviet union style. Hypothetically they could survive as 2nd tier country with limited tariff on China to maintain competition. But knowing western politicians this demands too much skills. So they will collapse.What is going to happen, for obvious reasons, if we know what the Europeans are like, the Europeans will try to protect their industries, (from Chinese industries), behind a tariff wall.
And that is a real conundrum.
1. Europe is rich because of trade. Now they feel compelled they have to do the opposite.
2. Will protection of domestic industries really do anything, such as improve competitiveness? No, they are doing the tariff wall for survival reasons.
What will happen next, seems pretty obvious to me.
These tariffs will protect European industry. But that just slows down the current competitiveness decline.
In short, the European tariffs on Chinese products, will only slow down European industrial decline. But, we realistically have to expect that decline to continue.
That is the part those dumb politicians in Europe do not understand. The German business people try to explain to them those politicians so many times and they just don't get it.
Right now, if Europa and China compete head to head, China will win on many industries.
If Europe retreats behind a protectionist wall, then there is no reason to believe that their industrial decline will not continue, because it will.
What is the growth rate of Europe. Like 1%. That means their market is growing at 1% for their tariff protected European companies.
What great a plan this is.
They're screwed.
proelite
Junior Member
The quality of the product will be from Chinese inputs. The value added for European companies will be from their brand, final assembly, and software.
That's already partly the case with Airbus. They keep expanding their Chinese operations and sourcing more and more from Chinese suppliers. Yes, key components are still Western but craftmanship also matters (see Boeing).
Refrigeration has been saturated in China since the 1990's.
AC is unnecessary in China which is temperate and subtropical, not desert like half the US. Even in Europe only 10% of households have AC compared with US at same latitude.
I mean industrial refrigeration. Last I read about it China was still behind there.
And yet more and more people keep installing them.
industrial refrigeration growth rate is comparable to household refrigeration which is already saturated.
AC growth rate in China is also only 2.7%, lower than EU.
broadsword
Brigadier
I think people in many regions of China will disagree with you. Other than in Yunnan, I see ac in Shanghai and up north in Beijing. When the temperature gets to 33, it is not comfortable.
It is unnecessary in Beijing households, but in businesses with higher heat load, it may be advisable.
if it was necessary, the installation growth rate should be higher. China doesn't lack money for ACs.