Chinese Economics Thread

[chgough34]

China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp is highly indicative that China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption.

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[manqiangrexue]

China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp is highly indicative that China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption.

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LOL That doesn't "mirror" anything more than a bear "mirrors" a frog because they both have legs. Do you know how many economic curves in the world can be said to "mirror" each other at some point in time if those 2 lines are said to "mirror" each other?

What is the source? Noahopinion blog? LOLOL WTF are you trying to reach for??

 

[valysre]

China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp is highly indicative that China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption.

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Wouldn't this imply that China and Poland had an identical set of "capital deepening" and "technical catch-up" prompters in time? Otherwise, how could these prompters lead to a mirrored graph?

Is it instead possible that China and Poland simply coincidentally have a similarly shaped graph?

 

[Heresy]

China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp is highly indicative that China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption.

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How about you sod off back to the American Economic Thread? You've already polluted one thread and here you are spreading your stench to another?

The use of something that is utterly devoid of credibility of Noahpinion ought to be a bannable offense.

 

[chgough34]

Wouldn't this imply that China and Poland had an identical set of "capital deepening" and "technical catch-up" prompters in time? Otherwise, how could these prompters lead to a mirrored graph?

Is it instead possible that China and Poland simply coincidentally have a similarly shaped graph?

There are generally only 3 things that increase overall productive capacity (productivity improvements, capital deepening, and increases in the labor force). Within productivity - it’s going to be either technical catchup, newfound innovation/productivity, or improvements in governance. There was a fairly large debate on what caused China’s post-1978 growth spurt: if it was due to secular increases in productivity, the growth rates shouldn’t have decreased as per capita gdp have increased (for example, in the U.S., gdp per capita growth has been 2% for decades and decades); but if it was due to capital deepening, China’s growth rate would decline as gdp per capita increased since capital has a declining marginal product. Since China’s growth rate has declined precipitously, it was clear that it was capital deepening doing a lot of the legwork. And in the Polish case - which China is now mirroring - it was about removing market distortions and technical catch-up in the post-Soviet environment that led to its growth, not productivity. If China was uniquely productive, it would have higher growth rates than poland

 

[chgough34]

The use of something that is utterly devoid of credibility of Noahpinion ought to be a bannable offense.

It was the graph itself from Noahpinion. Analysis was completely mine

 

[Sinnavuuty]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815287985254137947

Someone posted earlier that tax reform are coming, indeed tax reform are coming and local goverments should be able retain more than before

I mentioned this:

Chinese Economics Thread

https://www.pekingnology.com/p/lou-jiwei-on-key-challenges-in-chinas Lou Jiwei on Key Challenges in China's Next Fiscal and Tax System Reform Former Minister of Finance, Lou Jiwei, highlights “five key issues that this new round of fiscal-tax system reform must address”: 1. Increase the share...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

China would have to be forced to plan tax reform to save regional economies. Han Wenxiu, Deputy Bureau of the Financial and Economic Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC Central Committee), said China plans to expand the fiscal sources of regional budgets.

Taking into account the financial difficulties of local and grassroots governments, China would have to improve financial relations between central and local governments by increasing local independent financial resources and expanding local fiscal sources. The plenary decision involves improving the correspondence between financial resources and the powers of territorial-administrative units at municipal and district levels. It is proposed to increase the powers of the center accordingly, increase the share of the center's expenses and not require local authorities to organize auxiliary funds in violation of the rules.

From what I have studied, including watching a lecture by a former Chinese Finance Minister talking about this, China is wanting to pass on VAT income to provincial governments. They also want to assume part of the Provinces' debts and other measures.

 

[valysre]

There are generally only 3 things that increase overall productive capacity (productivity improvements, capital deepening, and increases in the labor force). Within productivity - it’s going to be either technical catchup, newfound innovation/productivity, or improvements in governance. There was a fairly large debate on what caused China’s post-1978 growth spurt: if it was due to secular increases in productivity, the growth rates shouldn’t have decreased as per capita gdp have increased (for example, in the U.S., gdp per capita growth has been 2% for decades and decades); but if it was due to capital deepening, China’s growth rate would decline as gdp per capita increased since capital has a declining marginal product. Since China’s growth rate has declined precipitously, it was clear that it was capital deepening doing a lot of the legwork. And in the Polish case - which China is now mirroring - it was about removing market distortions and technical catch-up in the post-Soviet environment that led to its growth, not productivity. If China was uniquely productive, it would have higher growth rates than poland

So, you are saying that the events of "capital deepening" and "technical catch-up" in China played out in the exact same chronological order, to produce the exact same (rather, a mirror) graph as Poland?
Because I fail to see any other way the graph could be a mirror. Just because there are the same causes, does not mean the graph is the same. The causes would have to happen in the same order and magnitude for the graph to be the same.
I find this very hard to believe, especially considering that the way, degree and speed at which China conducted "capital deepening" and "technical catch-up" were very different to the way the Polish did so.

In general, whenever people compare graphs, and say that they look similar, we must ask for much more convincing arguments than that. I see very little in the linked article beyond "the graphs look similar for the first 20% of what can be matched, so clearly the other 80% will be similar as well".

 

[manqiangrexue]

There are generally only 3 things that increase overall productive capacity (productivity improvements, capital deepening, and increases in the labor force). Within productivity - it’s going to be either technical catchup, newfound innovation/productivity, or improvements in governance. There was a fairly large debate on what caused China’s post-1978 growth spurt: if it was due to secular increases in productivity, the growth rates shouldn’t have decreased as per capita gdp have increased (for example, in the U.S., gdp per capita growth has been 2% for decades and decades); but if it was due to capital deepening, China’s growth rate would decline as gdp per capita increased since capital has a declining marginal product. Since China’s growth rate has declined precipitously, it was clear that it was capital deepening doing a lot of the legwork. And in the Polish case - which China is now mirroring - it was about removing market distortions and technical catch-up in the post-Soviet environment that led to its growth, not productivity. If China was uniquely productive, it would have higher growth rates than poland

Are you trying to come up with a Americans-are-risk-loving-not-irresponsible-so-they-can't-save-money type of excuse to pretend that China's not innovating based off of the commonly known trend of decreasing growth when transitioning from the fast and dirty phase into the high tech phase?

It was the graph itself from Noahpinion. Analysis was completely mine

Your "analysis" is based on cherry-picking small segments of 2 basically erratic curves, which even then still barely resemble each other in a world full of different scenarios and counties and claiming that they "mirror" each other LOL

 

[valysre]

China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp is highly indicative that China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption.

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Okay, reading this post again, it's extremely disappointing that you could produce such an analysis.

"China’s growth pattern mirroring Poland’s at the same level of per capita gdp" (A)
"China’s high growth spurt was not due to unique productivity gains but instead due to capital deepening and technical catch-up/absorption" (B)

First of all, (A) is not convincingly true. The Chinese graph is 20% of the length of the Polish graph, meaning that the similarity is statistically insignificant due to sample-size disparity.
Second of all, even if (A) were convincingly true, it does not imply (B). There could be a myriad of explanations to explain why China (an economy quite different to that of Poland, in terms of size, etc.) would have a similar graph to Poland, besides "Aha, China must be the next Poland and will clearly follow exactly the path of Poland".