Chinese Economics Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

And what are banks doing with their saving accounts? They have two options - investing in the same intangible stock market or make shadow lending to CCP related oligarchs

Bank loans are indeed how businesses in China are financed. Equity is only 1 way to raise money.

Thought so, but it's getting boring, all the same mantra here about the growing economy as the world is laughing at China as company valuations are making lower extremes 4th year in a row and Chinese entrepreneurs are begging USA to spare them from blacklisting. It's a sad story for China because if you are weak and clueless your enemy feels it and becomes bolder.
If all these cities are so prosperous why are so many Chinese trying to settle in EU and USA? It's because they will have higher standard of living there. I personally have Chinese friends who tell me how many people compete for a place in China, how difficult it is, low food and air quality, etc. This might change but it depends on the direction in which China is steered and recently it's towards isolation .. which reminds me of North Korea - during the 1950/1960 was doing better than South Korea but everyone can see what happened next with one man deciding everything policy.

China having high levels of competition is nothing novel. Yet emigration is down from historical levels and there is gain on the highest elite talents: PHD holding scientists and professors.

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China is gaining not only ethnic Chinese researchers but also attracting non-Chinese talent:

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actually, the net trade in talent ends up being positive for both sides. US says they want

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. China says it wants immigration of top scientific talent.

Both sides got their stated goals. I don't see why you're so angry.

 

[BrokeGambler]

yes, as i said, a lot of Chinese students are returning home (and many are still staying abroad) for various reasons
"The OECD data are not measuring the movement of non‐Chinese into China or non‐Americans into the United States. The OECD

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inflows and outflows of published scientific researchers based on changes in institutional affiliation. If an author who was previously affiliated with a different country publishes another article in a new country, the new country will be credited as receiving a new research scientist. The OECD

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more Chinese scientists returning to China for the sudden reversal in Chinese and American inflows."

It's interesting that Japanese are moving to China. But for sure it's not the case for white Westerners.

I'm not angry and couldn't care less for US or EU. But every day there are news like China biotech banned from rest of the world, you know what happened to semiconductors, China bonds are defaulting - and always some explanation like this was intended, they popped the property market, stocks are annihilated - no problem, Chinese don't care about financial markets, they are self sufficient. They save in banks and the latter "personally" are building nice cities and trains for the good of the small person, who for some reason loves the banksters, or wait, they are "goverment" banks And of course "the goverment banks" know better how to manage the economy, bridge by bridge, trains, buildings, like they did in the former USSR. I wonder why do all out of china banks bother to go thru some entrepreneurs as middlemen as they could do all by themselves? Nice pictures from towns which can be done for any country. It's just so absurd given the dire monetary situation in China that I just have to make a comment from time to time. The only achievement on the financial arena last year for China was managing to protect the 7.3 level in usd/chn which was at risk at one point (not because of economic strength).

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

yes, as i said, a lot of Chinese students are returning home (and many are still staying abroad) for various reasons
"The OECD data are not measuring the movement of non‐Chinese into China or non‐Americans into the United States. The OECD

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inflows and outflows of published scientific researchers based on changes in institutional affiliation. If an author who was previously affiliated with a different country publishes another article in a new country, the new country will be credited as receiving a new research scientist. The OECD

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more Chinese scientists returning to China for the sudden reversal in Chinese and American inflows."

It's interesting that Japanese are moving to China. But for sure it's not the case for white Westerners.

Is there some special talent that only white westerners have that Chinese and Japanese don't?

The OECD data is measuring academic affiliation which is the best metric for assessing which academics are working where.

I'm not angry and couldn't care less for US or EU. But every day there are news like China biotech banned from rest of the world

really? The US recently just approved a Chinese made cancer drug. The manufacturers charge 40x higher price in the US.

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The FDA even allows unapproved Chinese drugs to be imported to the US.

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, you know what happened to semiconductors,

What happened to semiconductors? Tell me what happened to semiconductors in China.

Semiconductor industry in China is growing rapidly.

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Semiconductor equipment also growing rapidly.

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China bonds are defaulting - and always some explanation like this was intended, they popped the property market, stocks are annihilated - no problem, Chinese don't care about financial markets, they are self sufficient. They save in banks and the latter "personally" are building nice cities and trains for the good of the small person, who for some reason loves the banksters, or wait, they are "goverment" banks And of course "the goverment banks" know better how to manage the economy, bridge by bridge, trains, buildings, like they did in the former USSR. I wonder why do all out of china banks bother to go thru some entrepreneurs as middlemen as they could do all by themselves?

Really?

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Are Chinese bonds defaulting, or the bonds of private enterprises that happen to be located in China?

Nice pictures from towns which can be done for any country.

If they could, they would. They don't, because they can't.

 

[AndrewS]

And what are banks doing with their saving accounts? They have two options - investing in the same intangible stock market or make shadow lending to CCP related oligarchs

That is a factually incorrect statement.

Banks aren't investing in the stock market or shadow lending to CCP related oligarchs.

The chart below shows that since 2020, net bank lending to the real estate industry has dropped to zero.

At the same time, this has been replaced by lending to industry.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713428622319738962

Twitter.com/harshmadhusudan/status/1713428622319738962

 

[AndrewS]

And what are banks doing with their saving accounts? They have two options - investing in the same intangible stock market or make shadow lending to CCP related oligarchs

And why do you assume that there are many oligarchs in China?

Look at the Forbes list of the richest people in China below. Almost all of them made their billions in consumer, tech or industrial companies.

Whilst I don't doubt they have good relations with the government, they operate in industries with a lot of competition and success is overwhelmingly determined by how efficient and effective their companies are.

Oligarchs who rely on their success due to the government are typically found in naturally monopolistic sectors like energy, natural resources or telecoms. Note these industries are outright government-owned in China.

And as for the real estate "oligarchs" - we can see that government banks are trying to get rid of their exposure.


forbes.com/lists/china-billionaires/

 

[Moonscape]

Ban this guy for constant blanket statements without any support.

 

[Taiban]

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IMF report on China for 2024

 

[BrokeGambler]

Semiconductor equipment also growing rapidly.

If you mean the high end DUV equipment then this "growth" comes with orders from EU. And because of this growth ASML stocks beat expectation multiple times but now have conservative 2024 outlook because of more China related restrictions effective from 2024. And if you mean the low end then the statement that China semi equipment is growing rapidly is correct but as I said their most advanced machines are coming from ASML and not SMIC. And they can use these some years but wheterr they will succeed copying them let alone invent similar/better ones is anyone's guess. And even now with the imported ones they dont have EUV. And production price will always remain high as they try to make miracles with old DUVs with higher failire rate.

"semiconductor equipment suppliers in China are expected to benefit, winning more orders from local" yes, for low end and they will win even more orders as other sources dry up with sanctions. This is overall good for they industry *if* they manage to catch up in few years with high end but the latter is far from certain

"China has looked to boost its domestic semiconductor industry, as it targets self-reliance and to wean itself off of foreign semiconductor firms." again, they are talking of self reliance but this is about to be seen. Not saying impossible but also quite not a fact yet.

The FDA even allows unapproved Chinese drugs to be imported to the US.

yes, they also import fentanyl even without approval, but this doesn't change the fact that the biotech sector is next in US sanctions list and Chinese companies are already affected as I gave clear data of the magnitude.

 

[Overbom]

You guys are baited way too easily. 10+ pages of successful baits in just a few days

 

[azn_cyniq]

1) These rankings of Universities are useless as they are based on published papers with dubious quality (and China excels at quantity)
2) 90% own their home, and I'm sure many own for speculation 2 or 3 homes which is one of China problems right now. And not saving accounts but investment in ghost cities has been the primary saving technique and a tool to urbanize China and deal with unemployment. This over-invesment in properties actually saved the world economy during the 2008 crisis generating artificial demand for commodities and let's see how China will deal with it . So far writing off debt, evergrande, etc
btw just checked for EU, it's not a perfect correlation but basically the poorer the country, the higher the property owning

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The Nature Index is not useless. It only considers papers published in the most prestigious science journals in the world. Here is the list:

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The papers published in these journals are not of dubious quality. The rise of Chinese science is real.

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Clarivate recently published a list of the 6,849 most influential researchers in the world. The US leads the list with 2,669 researchers. China (mainland China and Hong Kong) has 1,395 researchers on the list. Japan has 96, South Korea has 65, and India has 18. China still has a long way to go, but its progress so far has been good.