Chinese Economics Thread

[henrik]

1) These rankings of Universities are useless as they are based on published papers with dubious quality (and China excels at quantity)
2) 90% own their home, and I'm sure many own for speculation 2 or 3 homes which is one of China problems right now. And not saving accounts but investment in ghost cities has been the primary saving technique and a tool to urbanize China and deal with unemployment. This over-invesment in properties actually saved the world economy during the 2008 crisis generating artificial demand for commodities and let's see how China will deal with it . So far writing off debt, evergrande, etc
btw just checked for EU, it's not a perfect correlation but basically the poorer the country, the higher the property owning

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

These rankings of Universities are based on high quality published papers, as Chinese published papers are also leading in terms of the number of times they are quoted by other research papers.
Chinese researchers now excel in both at quantity and quality.

 

[BrokeGambler]

That is reality, even wikipedia will not say anything different.

Bull markets and bear markets come and go.

This is the measurable reality:

The complete biotech HK index halved for the last year

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And wuxi bilogics is 75% down for the year but of course this info will not be addressed in the forum.

And these sanctions were already 2-3 years in preparations and after finalized the Chinese have no plan, no strategy, just hope that USA might release it's grip.
"The House committee’s bill contains a “misleading description” of Zhisheng Chen, CEO and executive director of the company, WuXi Biologics contends. WuXi Bio added that Chen has neither worked for China’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences or any military-affiliated institution, nor has he received compensation from military-affiliated institutions in the country."

Trying to slowly cut Chinese biotech from foreign contracts?
China’s overseas rivals for contract research and manufacturing businesses advanced, with South Korea’s Samsung Biologics Co. rallying more than 5%. Swiss competitor Lonza Group AG closed 14% higher on Friday.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

One could imagine what will happen when Trump is back ..

These rankings of Universities are based on high quality published papers, as Chinese published papers are also leading in terms of the number of times they are quoted by other research papers.
Chinese researchers now excel in both at quantity and quality.

are they quoted from other Chinese research papers How are these quotes counted and where do you have this info from? Here is one nice article about the quantity..

“To survive in Chinese academia, we have many KPIs [key performance indicators] to hit. So when we publish, we focus on quantity over quality,” says a physics lecturer from a prominent Beijing university. “When prospective employers look at our CVs, it is much easier for them to judge the quantity of our output over the quality of the research,” he adds.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[Serb]

1) These rankings of Universities are useless as they are based on published papers with dubious quality (and China excels at quantity)

That's a very low IQ sentence. Only research papers published in 82 of the highest-quality journals in the world are counted in Nature Index. Do you know what the rejection rates for them are?

How can they be of "dubious quality", what are you smoking man, haha? These are the leading scientific authorities in the world.

And the Nature Index is from a Western-based org. that is generally recognized as the leader in this research of scientific output.

Wanna go even deeper? Go into

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

of scientific papers of countries, China leads there too.

China is now also #1 in

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

— the ones that get instant recognition (swiftly build up citations).

Also for example the West is more reliant on collaboration with researchers from other countries

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, talking about quality....

In 2022, China’s Share/Count ratio reached 82% (a ratio of 100% would indicate no international collaboration at all). This number has been rising steadily for several years: in 2015, China’s ratio was 72%, for instance.

At the same time, the ratio for most other major science nations has been falling. For example, the US ratio was 75% in 2015 and 70% in 2022, and for Germany, the ratio

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. In some scientific journals and fields, the trend is even more pronounced (see ‘Minimal collaboration’ and ‘Opposite directions’).

Here are more sources in areas, the last two directly from the US sources, but this time about engineering and computer science:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1727921872170606866

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1644735701995630593

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572892455896489984

90% own their home, and I'm sure many own for speculation 2 or 3 homes which is one of China problems right now.

Urban ownership of multiple homes is around 20%, another low IQ answer.

And not saving accounts but investment in ghost cities has been the primary saving technique and a tool to urbanize China and deal with unemployment.

Yeah, LGFVs are in part financed by state banks.

This over-invesment in properties actually saved the world economy during the 2008 crisis generating artificial demand for commodities and let's see how China will deal with it . So far writing off debt, evergrande, etc

Yeah, they oversupplied, however, that is no problem because they still have a 35% rural population

And all that oversupply will now be absorbed thanks to falling prices of real estate happening now.

That's the fundamental law of economics called supply and demand.

Now is the cycle of lowered home prices, deleveraging the real estate sector by large, and preventing future bubbles like in the US.

After that is done, the buildup will continue, but this time at more affordable prices for average people, until they reach 80-90% urbanization like SK/Japan.

Homes are for living, not speculation. In the future Chinese people will get more affordable homes!

 

[Serb]

Thought so, but it's getting boring, all the same mantra here about the growing economy as the world is laughing at China as company valuations are making lower extremes 4th year in a row and Chinese entrepreneurs are begging USA to spare them from blacklisting. It's a sad story for China because if you are weak and clueless your enemy feels it and becomes bolder.
If all these cities are so prosperous why are so many Chinese trying to settle in EU and USA? It's because they will have higher standard of living there. I personally have Chinese friends who tell me how many people compete for a place in China, how difficult it is, low food and air quality, etc. This might change but it depends on the direction in which China is steered and recently it's towards isolation .. which reminds me of North Korea - during the 1950/1960 was doing better than South Korea but everyone can see what happened next with one man deciding everything policy.

That's an availability heuristic, China has 1.4 billion people, of course, some people will settle out (especially in the past), but the trend is reversing.

Anyway, why do all these people emigrate to China if it's such fine and dandy in the EU? Do you realize how stupid and ignorant you sound now?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

low food and air quality,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581891706114306048

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1697033374408593524

 

[BrokeGambler]

I must correct myself: China have great Universities, but it's difficult to measure the quality, and I'm aware of a lot of scam papers

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Now is the cycle of lowered home prices, deleveraging the real estate sector by large, and preventing future bubbles like in the US.

Real estate bubbles in USA? And not in China? They have commercial real estate bubble in USA but residential?

Anyway, why do all these people emigrate to China if it's such fine and dandy in the EU? Do you realize how stupid and ignorant you sound now?

They are mostly Chinese anyway and currently is difficult for them abroad and many simply wants to return home. The majority of Chinese are staying in EU/USA and also a lot of foreigners are leaving China. This is due to increased nationalism, geopolitics, not that western ppl will have better chances in China if this is what you imply

And still no word about the Chinese biotech sector which is cut from the world .. how much time could China be self sufficient?

 

[Serb]

Real estate bubbles in USA? And not in China? They have commercial real estate bubble in USA but residential?

Half of US tenants can’t afford to pay their rent. Here’s what’s ahead​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Most homes for sale in 2023 were not affordable for a typical U.S. household​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is the real bubble. Meanwhile, prices for homes fell even more in China recently, and the bubble popped. Only stupid developers who didn't get the memo on time backed by foreign capital lost money in this so-called crisis. These write-ups are from Mr. Godfree Roberts from Twitter.

Chinese folks tend to own their homes. I don't mean with the bank like in the US. I mean they own 100% of their homes. "Mortgages aren’t as common in China as in the West: Only 18 percent of homeowners have one." - FP In the US a stunning 64.8% of "homeowners" don't own their home at all; the bank does. "According to the US Census, the total percentage of homeowners mortgage in the US is 64.8%." Millions of Chinese homeowners have seen the value of their homes rise by double or even ten fold in the last couple decades. Honestly, few care if suddenly their home lost a few percentage points in value in the last year. They aren't 'refinancing.' They already own their home. The use of western metrics to view China's property markets look silly when you actually know the details. The only folks not being made whole will likely be developers and speculators. So, some rich Wall Street boys are put out by recent developments. Chinese families, not so much. Those with investments in unfinished homes are being made whole. China, again, has shown the superiority of its economic system. The US has a lot to learn about and from the China-model.

The Evergrande story. Back in 2009, Beijing announced a domestic real estate deceleration would begin in 2018. By then, 96% of folks would own their homes and the country would need to invest in high tech. Every year since 2010, Xi has gone on TV, warning that homes are for living in, NOT for speculating. Seeing the writing on the wall, 99% of real estate developers repaid their bank loans, merged with competitors, and began bidding on high tech construction projects. The banks followed Beijing's directive by cutting back new loans. That kind of cooperation explains why developers' bankruptcy rate has remained steady at 0.2%. We hear about Evergrande only because its owner ignored Beijing and bypassed the banks by incorporating in Hong Kong and borrowing from foreign investors. Those foreign investors (who bet against Beijing, whether they knew it or not) now claim that the entire sector is collapsing. Our media are amplifying their complaints as usual. Meanwhile, Beijing is ensuring that everyone who paid for new homes gets them. Once that's done, subcontractors and their employees will be made whole. And when they're all happy, foreign bondholders will learn the depth of their haircut and will see that capitalism works quite well when it's regulated by a government that makes capitalists, rather than taxpayers, pay for their mistakes.

 

[jx191]

It's clear that China's real estate market is being de-leveraged by Xi Jinping.

Do you think this will have a knock on effect for birth rates?

Housing in big cities in China is notoriously unaffordable, and that leads to young people not getting married and not having kids.

Once the real estate bubble is fully deflated, will housing be more affordable?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

And what are banks doing with their saving accounts? They have two options - investing in the same intangible stock market or make shadow lending to CCP related oligarchs

Do you have trouble with the English language? You were just told what banks are doing with their clients' savings accounts:

In bank savings that eventually get them built stuff like this below.

 

[Shams]

China have great Universities, but it's difficult to measure the quality, and I'm aware of a lot of scam papers

U.S have universities? As how do you define universities may i know? Shouldn't you be aware of that people now are more conscious about US stooges who try to scam others , like you?

And still no word about the Chinese biotech sector which is cut from the world .. how much time could China be self sufficient?

What is there to be worried? The source of Western sciencetfic progress is immigration. China is the size of the world, US+Europe combined does not measure upto the level of China, how would you cut the world from the world itself?

Thought so, but it's getting boring, all the same mantra here about the growing economy as the world is laughing at China as company valuations are making lower extremes 4th year in a row and Chinese entrepreneurs are begging USA to spare them from blacklisting

I think the name of the beggar was Mark Milley , it really is a sad story when you print all the money in the world yet most of the country live on road side tent,while Western companies as well as their politicians beg China for "fair market access".

In this forum equities are ignored because they reveal the ugly picture of Chinese economy. But these valuations reveal how the world votes for both economies. All Asian stocks are better nit only USA and this is for a reason. As I shared a link the real Chinese ppl also invest outside. And CCP is simply stuck with one man show without an obvious plan instead of being smarter, to drop overregulations and purges, to stimulate and release animal market spirits and to convince own ppl to invest in china not in Nasdaq

Now you come to the point silly boy. Releasing animal market spirits. I have told many times , US is simply a stock market to make cheap money.This reveal the ugly picture of US's very existence.
The people who live in US does not live there because they love the scenarios, but because US is source of cheap money to them. US is not a country, but a luxury hotel you go for relaxation and entertainment.
China & US is fundamentally different. China being a real country, can never get rid of the boundaries that makes it a nation.
One can name US United States of Nasdaq and nobody,you as well,will not bother.
Two are not even remotely comparable. China is the biggest economy. US is not even a economy. It is more like a lengthy residential luxury motel . So your argument about China convincing it's own people is null and void. My kids like amusement park more than home and school. I do not try to convince them which one is good.

 

[henrik]

are they quoted from other Chinese research papers How are these quotes counted and where do you have this info from? Here is one nice article about the quantity..

These quotes are from international researcher papers. This particular ranking of quantity of quoting by other research papers was done by international reputable entities. Someone posted it on this forum already, maybe they can post it again here. All the major countries are listed in this ranking. We all know you are saying that this ranking is invalid since China is ranked high, but somehow it was valid when some other country was ranked high? That would be double standard, You don't have to believe at all, it does not really matter anyways.