Chinese Economics Thread

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Most commodity future contracts traded on future exchanges are not for delivery, I think it is like around 1% is actually exercised for delivery.

So?
Treasuries are not commodity futures. Treasury trades are all settled. My point was how broadly immaterial China’s treasury holdings are due to how liquid the treasury market is.

further, the speculation is illogical because what else is China supposed to do with a stash of dollars? If it puts them in an account at the nyfed, they’d earn no interest.
 

sunnymaxi

Captain
Registered Member
If you mean the high end DUV equipment then this "growth" comes with orders from EU. And because of this growth ASML stocks beat expectation multiple times but now have conservative 2024 outlook because of more China related restrictions effective from 2024. And if you mean the low end then the statement that China semi equipment is growing rapidly is correct but as I said their most advanced machines are coming from ASML and not SMIC. And they can use these some years but wheterr they will succeed copying them let alone invent similar/better ones is anyone's guess. And even now with the imported ones they dont have EUV. And production price will always remain high as they try to make miracles with old DUVs with higher failire rate.

"semiconductor equipment suppliers in China are expected to benefit, winning more orders from local" yes, for low end and they will win even more orders as other sources dry up with sanctions. This is overall good for they industry *if* they manage to catch up in few years with high end but the latter is far from certain

"China has looked to boost its domestic semiconductor industry, as it targets self-reliance and to wean itself off of foreign semiconductor firms." again, they are talking of self reliance but this is about to be seen. Not saying impossible but also quite not a fact yet.
we are off topic here but i couldn't stop myself to reply on this post ..

your entire paragraph is completely wrong. you must be live under the rock. oh i guess you watch too much western media.

its SMEE not SMIC is responsible for domestic DUVi.

you said, ''they can use these some years but wheterr they will succeed copying them let alone invent similar/better ones is anyone's guess''. you should go back to school if you think, someone can copy or reverse engineering lithography machine.

let me burst your bubble. China have had domestically produced advanced immersion DUV since 2021.. lithography is the most complex machine. this is the reason why SMEE took this much time for solving issues and verification. from this year SMEE will increase the production. 20+ units will be delivered.

SMEE's 28nm DUV patent officially revelead.png

last year you have seen, Chinese fabs purchased so many machines from ASML. coz there are dire need of lithography as expansion of chip production in mainland. world's factory need more chips than rest of the world combined. SMEE cannot fulfil demand. so Chinese fabs stock pile lithography from ASML one last time.

this is just for DUVi .. i have yet to talk about indigenous EUV.

5 different Chinese institutes developing EUV light source. LMAO. have you ever seen this kind of luxury? not even America can afford this. all core components of EUV have successfully developed.

"semiconductor equipment suppliers in China are expected to benefit, winning more orders from local" yes, for low end and they will win even more orders as other sources dry up with sanctions. This is overall good for they industry *if* they manage to catch up in few years with high end but the latter is far from certain

this is another retarded paragraph. far from the reality. it shows the lack of knowledge you have.

NAURA/AMEC/Jingce/ACM/KingSemi/Piotech all these companies have 28nm/14nm complete set of tools and rapidly advancing towards 7nm.

AMEC in-fact the supplier of 5nm Plasma Etching tool to TSMC. AMEC also replaced LAM in ICP equipment in Mainland. soon will wipe out from mainland market..

Image

this is the elite club of semiconductor equipment manufacturers. reserved for West and Japan. but in 2023 A Chinese child called ''NAURA'' broke the monopoly and entered in top 10 list for the first time. NAURA was nobody in 2019-2020 but look at the growth. thanks to sanctions.

more Chinese companies will break into top 10 in next few years. we are witnessing the greatest shift in 500 years.. you have no idea, what is coming for you.

When China has their own high-bypass engine and is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry I might agree with you.


DXqdO2EW0AAcKSY.jpg
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China currently have Three active high bypass Turbofan Engine programs.

WS-20 entered in production
CJ-1000 about to enter in LRIP stage
CJ-2000 entered in prototype stage
 

BrokeGambler

New Member
Registered Member
You are bashing Hong Kong on the performance of one stock
Actually I the whole honk Kong biotech index is down 50% for last year.
There are four pillars to the Hong Kong economy. Biotech is not one of them. Financial industry, tourism industry, logistics and services, that is the Hong Kong economy.
You might be right. The reason I mentioned biotech is the recent rout there. Don't know about the other pillars but the financial industry is definitely not doing well

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And when the main industry deteriorates then services and logistics usually follow with a lag.

5 different Chinese institutes developing EUV light source. LMAO. have you ever seen this kind of luxury? not even America can afford this
Why would America need in-house EUV when they have the semi industry working for them in Netherlands, Taiwan, Japan, Korea.. the world.They had the stupid idea to move tsmc in the USA which I don't think would work.
NAURA/AMEC/Jingce/ACM/KingSemi/Piotech all these companies have 28nm/14nm complete set of tools and rapidly advancing towards 7nm.
And what does this have with euv? I'm not an expert but euv is complicated as you wrote and still not in china. I didn't mean reverse engineer asml but making sth similar. Even you only speak in future tense for advanced lithography. But future is uncertain in a world changing each year so dramatically

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
And what does this have with euv? I'm not an expert but euv is complicated as you wrote and still not in china. I didn't mean reverse engineer asml but making sth similar. Even you only speak in future tense for advanced lithography. But future is uncertain in a world changing each year so dramatically

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China has several concurrent efforts to develop technologies for EUV lithography. The one in the article is just one of them.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Is there some special talent that only white westerners have that Chinese and Japanese don't?

The OECD data is measuring academic affiliation which is the best metric for assessing which academics are working where.

really? The US recently just approved a Chinese made cancer drug. The manufacturers charge 40x higher price in the US.

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The FDA even allows unapproved Chinese drugs to be imported to the US.

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What happened to semiconductors? Tell me what happened to semiconductors in China.

Semiconductor industry in China is growing rapidly.

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Semiconductor equipment also growing rapidly.

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Really?
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Are Chinese bonds defaulting, or the bonds of private enterprises that happen to be located in China?

If they could, they would. They don't, because they can't.
Why are you guys WASTING TIME ARGUING WITH AN INDIAN SUPER GENIUS? it's a COLOSSAL waste of your time because people like @BrokeGambler is firmly in place and dead set with his views on Chinese economy, governance, leader(s), and China as a whole. He's here to rile people up with his takes that he wants to insist are true about China and people here would argue otherwise going back and forth to no one's satisfaction or even clear winner. Only time will tell how accurate we are (those that are sanguine about China's economic strategy) vs people like @BrokeGambler and his acolytes that sees the opposite.

I just find it hillarious that it's always these damn Indians that argue on behalf of the west (America, Europe, Japan) and lectures China and the Chinese people on how to run a country and companies which is rich coming from an Indian of India who's country seems to rest on being the perpetual next China. Lol
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I do not have to stand by my government and a policy I do not support.
Yeah, like I said, you're here just to criticize everything, actually like a broke gambler. It's a sign of total ruin when one just wishes to cast gloom on others and has lost self-preservation.
Unlike China - we have real elections.
And unlike China, your country is in decline. There is no country with "real elections" that can rival China's growth. That's why we don't need or want "real elections."
There are no perfect societies. The incompetence of Western governments are beyond pale which you certainly agree with. We [the West] are losing against China because we as a collective have made wrong decisions for centuries. The United States is a huge reason why the West is falling. I´m a aware of the history of the Communist Party of China and all it´s achievements. I´m also impressed by Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and Vietnam. As white people have decided to commit suicide we can only hope that "yellow people" carry the human civilization forward.
If you're so aware then why did you ask why Chinese people went to the West to live? That question makes me think you have no background in the matter at all.
Statements about how China is economically stronger than the United States seem silly in the context that U.S. shocks administered, even indirectly, cause large changes in equity values in China, but the reverse is nowhere near true.

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You know what shows that China is economically stronger than the US? (Other than America's slums, drug addiction, homeless rate, degrading infrastructure, high crime rate, imputed rent/expensive education+healthcare-inflated fake economy, etc...) The fact that America's trying to shock China with trade and tech wars while China just stays in its own lane and grows. If America was confident that its economy was stronger and on a more solid trajectory, it would outgrow China instead of wasting its efforts on sabotage. People who can win fairly don't resort to desperate underhanded tactics.
Imo people implicitly reveal this position when the United States is the lodestar among which everything is centered, the U.S. being ipso facto the gold standard and center of all attention. China is compared to the United States; the United States is not compared to China, and no other country is ever mentioned except in passim. The existing power structure implicitly reveals itself
I don't see this at all. If China is compared to the US, then the US is compare to China. It is equal and it is because China is the young lion and the US is the old lion; it's the center stage fight of the world.
Thought so, but it's getting boring, all the same mantra here about the growing economy as the world is laughing at China as company valuations are making lower extremes 4th year in a row and Chinese entrepreneurs are begging USA to spare them from blacklisting. It's a sad story for China because if you are weak and clueless your enemy feels it and becomes bolder.
If the West laughs at China, it's the kind of laugh someone spouts out as they feel insanity creep into their nerves from the frustration of repeated failures. America's not becoming bolder; it's becoming more desperate as it seeing China's economy and technology continue to grow despite all of America's best efforts at sabotage. It may be a sad story for Chinese companies that wanted to make money with American partners and suppliers but it's a beautiful story for the ones that wish to build a Chinese future cutting America and the West out.
If all these cities are so prosperous why are so many Chinese trying to settle in EU and USA? It's because they will have higher standard of living there.
No, it's because of the decades long dogma that the West is better. Despite everything in China being better now, higher tech, low crime rate, clean cities, all the good stuff that is crumbling in the West, it takes a long time before people realize that their dogma needs to change. And many Chinese people who come to America actually show disappointment at how "slummy'' their cities are. Despite this, the ones back home don't believe them and need to see for themselves.
I personally have Chinese friends who tell me how many people compete for a place in China, how difficult it is, low food and air quality, etc.
And I personally have American friends who went to China for business and realized that the US has fallen far far behind, something they would not have believed had they not seen it with their own eyes.
This might change but it depends on the direction in which China is steered and recently it's towards isolation ..
Well, don't want to be contaminated by these criminal hobo drug addict nations.
which reminds me of North Korea - during the 1950/1960 was doing better than South Korea but everyone can see what happened next with one man deciding everything policy.
False comparison. North Korea stood strong and South Korea took a knee to America. One's a starved wolf in the mountains and the other is a man's fat dog on a leash. It actually reminds me of India, which was ahead of China in 1950/1960 but everyone can see what happened next with their democracy vs China's "one man" rule.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Citations here:


Even though that's about US IPO market slumping, I believe it may be related to Chinese economy too.

Investors are taking their money out of US IPOs, which supposedly represent new and disruptive productive forces in the economy, and instead putting them into the same incumbents that have been dominating the economy.

That means investors are viewing "new" things as too risky to buy equity in.

Isn't this basically Chinese companies as a whole though? Rising Chinese companies play the same role as IPOs: innovators that open up new supply in the economy and disrupting old incumbents.

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