Chinese Economics Thread

J.Whitman

New Member
Registered Member
Your data is inaccurate. The data it claims to source is a projection. There is more accurate measured data from US CDC and the World Bank.

US CDC puts the life expectancy at 77.5.

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World Bank has US at lower life expectancy than China as well. Thats 2 consistent data sets that agree with me and disagree with you.

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If people died to COVID then they're still dead. Failure to manage COVID is still a failure.

But to address that we can look at 65 year survivorship rates. If US life expectancy decline is only due to COVID killing old people then the US cohort survival rate to 65 years should be high.

Yet that is not what the data says. China is higher than the US on those too.

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Seems like I was wrong. I´m not a demographer and the diffrences between China and USA seem to be minor but what do I know.
Turkey and Argentina had lower GDP per capita than China last year and grew 30% nominally due to 60%+ inflation.
Most of this discussion here can be falsified through quantitative methods. If we want to know if hypothesis is true one could do this with data and a SPSS and I´m sure it´s already done. This is something that could be answered easy. What you write seem plausible but what do I know.
China still has a long way to go. You're right about that. However, the data at the beginning of your post shows that China's GDP more than doubled in 10 years. Last year, China's GDP grew by 5.2% and it is expected to grow by around 5% this year. At this rate, it should double in another 14 years. What makes you say that China has already failed given that it is still growing at a more than reasonable pace?

In the last three years, China's GDP per capita in US dollar terms has indeed stagnated, but given China's increasing technological sophistication would it not be better to measure China's progress using the Chinese yuan? An increasing percentage of China's commodity imports are purchased using the Chinese yuan. The only industries that China lags behind the West in are semiconductors and jet engines, but they're rapidly catching up. China is drastically reducing its dependence on the US dollar and it seems to be doing fine, so would it not be wiser to assess China's progress through the lens of the Chinese Yuan?
I´m not saying that China has failed. I do not believe that something is written. This is why I avoid to say; "never". I believe that the low GDP (nominal) capita numbers might be problematic and that they need further discussion. Overall I think China do well.
Misuse as defined by whom? China does not accept Western definitions. China uses the RMB to grow the Chinese economy and surpass the US. If that is underway, it is achieving its purpose and there is no misuse.

I think you're alone in your desperate wishes. China is labelled a second world country. The US says China is a developed country. China disagrees and says it's right where it should be. The whole Western world is in a panic that it cannot halt China's technological and economic advances. Only you live in this imagination where China is somehow less than small inconsequential economies. This is called whistling past the graveyard.

What does poorer mean? That these countries can afford more military hardware? That they live in more modern cities? It means nothing just like being a first world country means nothing when the economy is stagnant, people are struggling and drug addicted, crime so common it's basically legalized, so many problems that the CCP would never allow to happen in China that just a handful is too much for you to respond to.

LOLOL If you went to China, you will see that it is the most advanced country in the world. Apartment gates can recognize owner faces and fingerprints, shopping carts link to your smartphone to tell you how to complete your shopping list, trains that run as smooth as a room in your house on schedules displayed and updated to be accurate to less than 1 minute, criminals that can expect to see the police at their homes waiting before they even arrive because of camera tracking. There is no Western country that can come close to rivalling China; as China moves forward into the technological future, the West falls back on "tradition" and rustic culture closing their eyes while telling themselves that they are the most advanced. It is only the imaginary nominal GDP, a fluid number that China controls to its own devices, that you can create a fantasy world where China is less other nation.

Funny story, you actually remind me of Italians. I visited both Rome and Almaty. The Kazakhs were humble and polite; Italians were arrogant and ignorant. They believed themselves to be amongst elite Western Europeans but actually Italy is ancient, outdated, dirty full of begging homeless Gypsies. The only technology I saw resided in a 600 Euro/night American 5 star hotel. Almaty, on the other hand, was beautiful and clean; crime and homelessness nowhere to be seen. Their regular apartments used Chinese systems to open doors electronically with ID verification. Their living quarters (regular Airbnb, no fancy hotels) were elegant and used modern stoves and air conditioning while Italian residences made me think I was living in the 1970's. Kazakh supermarkets were beautiful, large, well lit and modern while Italian marketplaces were old and run down. Seeing the Kazakhs speaking so humbly to me because I was Chinese and came to them from the US, I had to tell them that they had no reason to drop their heads to any foreigners. Almaty puts any US city to shame. But I think they only thought I was being polite. They don't know their own excellence and you'd probably chime in with some worthless statement about their per capita GDP being below Italy's hence LOL

LOLOL Where the hell are you from that you think you can criticize China, Russia, and the US together? Your country would die in any of their butt cracks if they sat on you.
As I wrote before. If GDP (nominal) per capita is a measurement of wealth - than China is poorer than Mexico. I´m not saying that wealth it´s all about GDP (nominal) per capita. There are several economic factors to be considered. I have actually been to China (Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) but I have never lived there. I´m from Sweden - a country in rapid decline. When it come to Rome. I have only visited once. The quality of accommodation has always been a disappointment in Southern Europe. I cannot really afford to live at 5 star hotels how they are so I would not know about the quality. I stay at more modest 3-4 star hotels.

One have to wonder. Why do 12-13 million Chinese live in Western countries and 10 million of them in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand? The United States alone hold 5.3 million Chinese people. In 1950 Sweden had 397 Chinese immigrants. By the end of 2022 Sweden had 43,980 immigrants - more than half of them are women. Why do Chinese come to the West? Is this because China is economically, culturally and politically developed or is it because China is a impoverished third world country? You live in white man´s land and I doubt you are a mail-order wife.

I will say that I enjoy your writings. It´s proactive instead of the self-hate that is so common among Chinese and other Asians (in particular some Asian women) in the diaspora.
Not to "some degree". China is already the strongest technological power in the world.
When China has their own high-bypass engine and is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry I might agree with you.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Outside of research, I don't think the US healthcare system should be praised!

Life expectancy, infant mortality and other metrics show them falling behind other OECD countries. On top of that, medical procedures and drug costs are financially ruinous for things like cancer. This has been known for ages!

Unless you are a multi-millionaire, in which case you likely can buy access to the best doctors and treatments in the world within the US, your health outcomes with be worse when compared against public healthcare providing OECD countries.

I would put any praise of US healthcare alongside praise for the second amendment and overall gun ownership / culture in the US. The US is the only country in the OECD that continues to suffer from horrific gun violence (just like poor health outcomes), yet there is no ability to honestly evaluate and fix the issues leading to these situations.
U.S. healthcare is very good for the ultra rich. The access and options you have is amazing if you are in the top 0.5%. Look at the type of concierge medicine you can obtain if you are a millionaire living in NYC of San Francisco.

For everybody else the system isn’t so good. It ranks towards the bottom in terms of cost and patient satisfactions. This is especially true when it comes to chronic diseases.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
using life expectancy as a measure of healthcare outcomes is faulty. Population determinants of health outcomes are broadly, not related to healthcare.

Disagree - what about the lack of access to adequate insurance with real coverage (as opposed to a 1000/yr healthcare savings account)? The lack of readily accessible basic care is how you end up with people bankrupt from an acute incident - the cumulative deleterious effect of avoiding care does not scale linearly (Delaying cancer treatment by 20% in time doesn't decrease your odds of remission by 20%).

If you make a disease with 100% mortality into one with a standard life table, then just the value of accounts payable/accrued payable at 60K a year with 3% in salary growth at a 3% discount rate over 40 years is worth $4.4m + more for nonecomomic benefits.

Okay now do the same for the premature deaths of the COPD population because they couldn't afford Advair.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Seems like I was wrong. I´m not a demographer and the diffrences between China and USA seem to be minor but what do I know.

Most of this discussion here can be falsified through quantitative methods. If we want to know if hypothesis is true one could do this with data and a SPSS and I´m sure it´s already done. This is something that could be answered easy. What you write seem plausible but what do I know.

I´m not saying that China has failed. I do not believe that something is written. This is why I avoid to say; "never". I believe that the low GDP (nominal) capita numbers might be problematic and that they need further discussion. Overall I think China do well.

As I wrote before. If GDP (nominal) per capita is a measurement of wealth - than China is poorer than Mexico. I´m not saying that wealth it´s all about GDP (nominal) per capita. There are several economic factors to be considered. I have actually been to China (Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) but I have never lived there. I´m from Sweden - a country in rapid decline. When it come to Rome. I have only visited once. The quality of accommodation has always been a disappointment in Southern Europe. I cannot really afford to live at 5 star hotels how they are so I would not know about the quality. I stay at more modest 3-4 star hotels.

One have to wonder. Why do 12-13 million Chinese live in Western countries and 10 million of them in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand? The United States alone hold 5.3 million Chinese people. In 1950 Sweden had 397 Chinese immigrants. By the end of 2022 Sweden had 43,980 immigrants - more than half of them are women. Why do Chinese come to the West? Is this because China is economically, culturally and politically developed or is it because China is a impoverished third world country? You live in white man´s land and I doubt you are a mail-order wife.

I will say that I enjoy your writings. It´s proactive instead of the self-hate that is so common among Chinese and other Asians (in particular some Asian women) in the diaspora.

When China has their own high-bypass engine and is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry I might agree with you.
I mean you can cherry pick whatever statistics you want. China had higher GDP per capita than Mexico in 2022, did that materially change the relative quality of life between China and Mexico in 1 single year?

The same is true for ALL the countries you listed. ALL of them had slighy lower GDP pet capita in 2022 and slightly higher in 2023.

So was it that within the single year of 2023 all of China fell to ruin while the slums of Mexico were replaced by mansions or something???

And if the RMB appreciated by 10% and there was 5% inflation without any increase in economic activity, raising the nominal GDP per capita by 15%, does Mexico suddenly regress to mud huts and hunter gatherers?
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
When China has their own high-bypass engine and is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry I might agree with you.

This is an availability heuristic, middle schooler-type collection of words (because it can't even be called an argument), and your own feelings and beliefs. You need to look comprehensive distribution of tech achievements in various areas, not just 1-2 areas. It's like saying some random country is technologically weak if it doesn't have good HSR tech, EV battery tech, photovoltaics, or some random area I picked because I feel like it and am dumb to look at the whole picture or find some broad dataset.

You need comprehensive and real research statistics to evaluate this topic. You need to look at the entire picture, not just 10% of the picture. Anyways, 'arguments' like this aren't supposed to be on a forum of this quality. Even other more educated Westerners from professional research institutions admit that China is ahead of the US technology, so I don't know what are you coping with. It was already posted many times over here (you probably saw it too, but are now trolling) alongside similar things, so I won't be posting it again and wasting my time.
 
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chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Disagree - what about the lack of access to adequate insurance with real coverage (as opposed to a 1000/yr healthcare savings account)? The lack of readily accessible basic care is how you end up with people bankrupt from an acute incident - the cumulative deleterious effect of avoiding care does not scale linearly (Delaying cancer treatment by 20% in time doesn't decrease your odds of remission by 20%).
I dont think that’s very common since ~95% of people are insured
Okay now do the same for the premature deaths of the COPD population because they couldn't afford Advair.
It’s not going to be particularly high; people marginally attached to the workforce who don’t have employer-sponsored health insurance don’t make a lot (since the ACA mandates health insurance for ppl employed over 35hr/wk). Inb4, I’m explaining why gdp accounting can indeed make sense on healthcare even if it is highly inequitable.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is an availability heuristic, middle schooler-type collection of words (because it can't even be called an argument), and your personal feelings and beliefs. You need to look comprehensive distribution of tech achievements in various areas, not just 1-2 areas. It's like saying some random country is technologically weak if it doesn't have good HSR tech, EV battery tech, photovoltaics, or some random area I picked because I feel like it and am dumb to look at the whole picture or find some broad dataset. You need comprehensive and real research statistics to evaluate this topic. You need to look at the entire picture, not just 10% of the picture. Anyways, 'arguments' like this are mainly found on Reddit and aren't supposed to be on a forum of this quality. Even other more educated Westerners from professional research institutions admit that China is ahead of the US technology and that only the Collective West combined can be on par with them nowadays, I don't know what are you coping with. It was already posted many times over here (you probably saw it too damn well, but are now trolling), so I won't be posting it now and wasting time.
China already has a leading position in the semiconductor industry relative to 99% of countries. There simply aren't that many players after all.

If Israel and Ireland - both of which have 0 domestic leading edge fabs and 0 equipment industry - can be considered semiconductor superpowers, then what is China? China which is tied for 2nd highest global wafer capacity, has 7 nm domestic fabs and domestic equipment, does not have semiconductor industry? Huh???

1706885677621.png
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is why using life expectancy as a measure of healthcare outcomes is faulty. Population determinants of health outcomes are broadly, not related to healthcare.

How is this the case, when you have this stat for the US? Why do wealthier have better life expectancies, if not for healthcare quality?



1*AT7vMW9lzyyb_R5D6L8y-g.png
 
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