Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Or maybe the RMB is misused by China. Maybe that explains why the RMB is 15-20% undervalued?

Misuse as defined by whom? China does not accept Western definitions. China uses the RMB to grow the Chinese economy and surpass the US. If that is underway, it is achieving its purpose and there is no misuse.

Maybe it´s not some smart secret move to sell more plastic toys to Western countries? Another explanation is that the value of RMB reflect the fact that China is a third world country and poorer than Mexico, Saint Lucia, Turkey, Argentina, Malaysia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Argentina and Turkey are in economic crisis. Mexico is a crime-stricken third world country. Russia is at war and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are "stans" part of Central Asia. You think about that.

I think you're alone in your desperate wishes. China is labelled a second world country. The US says China is a developed country. China disagrees and says it's right where it should be. The whole Western world is in a panic that it cannot halt China's technological and economic advances. Only you live in this imagination where China is somehow less than small inconsequential economies. This is called whistling past the graveyard.

China is as of 2024 poorer than Mexico.

What does poorer mean? That these countries can afford more military hardware? That they live in more modern cities? It means nothing just like being a first world country means nothing when the economy is stagnant, people are struggling and drug addicted, crime so common it's basically legalized, so many problems that the CCP would never allow to happen in China that just a handful is too much for you to respond to.

I actually pointed out that China is in terms of technology is to some degree a developed country

LOLOL If you went to China, you will see that it is the most advanced country in the world. Apartment gates can recognize owner faces and fingerprints, shopping carts link to your smartphone to tell you how to complete your shopping list, trains that run as smooth as a room in your house on schedules displayed and updated to be accurate to less than 1 minute, criminals that can expect to see the police at their homes waiting before they even arrive because of camera tracking. There is no Western country that can come close to rivalling China; as China moves forward into the technological future, the West falls back on "tradition" and rustic culture closing their eyes while telling themselves that they are the most advanced. It is only the imaginary nominal GDP, a fluid number that China controls to its own devices, that you can create a fantasy world where China is less other nation.

Funny story, you actually remind me of Italians. I visited both Rome and Almaty. The Kazakhs were humble and polite; Italians were arrogant and ignorant. They believed themselves to be amongst elite Western Europeans but actually Italy is ancient, outdated, dirty full of begging homeless Gypsies. The only technology I saw resided in a 600 Euro/night American 5 star hotel. Almaty, on the other hand, was beautiful and clean; crime and homelessness nowhere to be seen. Their regular apartments used Chinese systems to open doors electronically with ID verification. Their living quarters (regular Airbnb, no fancy hotels) were elegant and used modern stoves and air conditioning while Italian residences made me think I was living in the 1970's. Kazakh supermarkets were beautiful, large, well lit and modern while Italian marketplaces were old and run down. Seeing the Kazakhs speaking so humbly to me because I was Chinese and came to them from the US, I had to tell them that they had no reason to drop their heads to any foreigners. Almaty puts any US city to shame. But I think they only thought I was being polite. They don't know their own excellence and you'd probably chime in with some worthless statement about their per capita GDP being below Italy's hence LOL

but so is Russia - a country forever trapped in the "middle-income trap" and perpetual poverty and corruption. When it come to the United States I hold little hope. I really hope that China has loftier goals than become another United States.

LOLOL Where the hell are you from that you think you can criticize China, Russia, and the US together? Your country would die in any of their butt cracks if they sat on you.

 

[Serb]

Or maybe the RMB is misused by China. Maybe that explains why the RMB is 15-20% undervalued?

It is not misused, it is purposefully made in a way that China could become modernized, industrialized, and technologically advanced in the fastest way possible. And at the same time, for example, made the US more deindustrialized, weak, and addicted to Chinese products. Basically left with only virtual intangible sectors like finance and service and government/administrative and rent-seeking sectors that are useless for comprehensive national power as the main structure. And despite their higher standards of living on paper, people are still unhappier, more unsatisfied with everything, and on the verge of a civil war? So, maybe actually China knows what it's doing, and you don't? Look at the mirror.

Maybe it´s not some smart secret move to sell more plastic toys to Western countries?

What plastic toys in 2024? Today they have 10 times more high-tech exports than the US. They also lead in nearly all emerging and critical tech.

Another explanation is that the value of RMB reflect the fact that China is a third world country and poorer than Mexico, Saint Lucia, Turkey, Argentina, Malaysia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Argentina and Turkey are in economic crisis. Mexico is a crime-stricken third world country. Russia is at war and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are "stans" part of Central Asia. You think about that. China is as of 2024 poorer than Mexico.

Who cares what some imaginary number low IQ Westoids on Reddit look at say? What matters is the real world.

I actually pointed out that China is in terms of technology is to some degree a developed country but so is Russia - a country forever trapped in the "middle-income trap" and perpetual poverty and corruption. When it come to the United States I hold little hope. I really hope that China has loftier goals than become another United States.

Not to "some degree". China is already the strongest technological power in the world.

 

[AndrewS]

Your citation is nearly 20 years old at this point but it’s largely immaterial to my point that on the expensive intensive margin, US healthcare is “better”. You effectively concede the point actually since the U.S. comparison group isn’t a global panel but is one of other wealthy countries

No. You can see this is a pattern from over 20 years ago, to more recent studies from 5 years ago.
The examples include gastro surgery, heart attack surgery, and overall mistake rates.

This isn't the "expensive intensive margin" as you can it. These procedures comprise the bread and butter of any hospital system.

I used the UK and Japan as developed world examples because their data is easy to get.
And they illustrate how the US system has also obscene costs combined with middling or worse outcomes.

There is absolutely no way you can justify US healthcare costs being even 4x higher for comparable procedures, never mind the instances when they go up to 100x more expensive.

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But if you want to compare against China, let's take the example of childbirth, which literally half the population undergoes in their lifetime, mostly more than once. Again, this isn't an "expensive intensive margin" healthcare product as it is so common.
And comparisons for this data are easily available because it is a topic which is researched globally.

Maternal mortality rates in the US are amongst the highest in the developed world.
Plus it gets worse. US death rates for mothers are twice that of China - which is still only a middle income country.
Remember the death rate for the mother is the most important metric by far.

And at first glance, it looks like the US is at least 5x more expensive than China for equivalent childbirth procedures.

How does that square with the US system delivering twice as many deaths whilst also charging many times more?

You cannot credibly argue that the US healthcare system is better.
And remember that in China, Japan, the UK and most other countries - you can always go into the private healthcare system and pay more, if you wish to.

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There is a reason why people in literally every other country in the world are disgusted with the US healthcare system.
It feels like the US healthcare system is simply there to exploit patients by charging them ridiculous amounts of money.

 

[SlothmanAllen]

Outside of research, I don't think the US healthcare system should be praised!

Life expectancy, infant mortality and other metrics show them falling behind other OECD countries. On top of that, medical procedures and drug costs are financially ruinous for things like cancer. This has been known for ages!

Unless you are a multi-millionaire, in which case you likely can buy access to the best doctors and treatments in the world within the US, your health outcomes with be worse when compared against public healthcare providing OECD countries.

I would put any praise of US healthcare alongside praise for the second amendment and overall gun ownership / culture in the US. The US is the only country in the OECD that continues to suffer from horrific gun violence (just like poor health outcomes), yet there is no ability to honestly evaluate and fix the issues leading to these situations.

 

[abenomics12345]

Outside of research, I don't think the US healthcare system should be praised!

Life expectancy, infant mortality and other metrics show them falling behind other OECD countries. On top of that, medical procedures and drug costs are financially ruinous for things like cancer. This has been known for ages!

Unless you are a multi-millionaire, in which case you likely can buy access to the best doctors and treatments in the world within the US, your health outcomes with be worse when compared against public healthcare providing OECD countries.

Some 50% of healthcare spending is for people within 6 months of passing away in the US.

Just some numbers to level set the discussion here -




Contrary to popular belief, pharma costs are not the problem. This is the problem:



The US healthcare system is really a disease care system - I have no doubt that the best specialists at Johns Hopkins or Mayo Clinic or Memorial Sloan Kettering are indeed the 'best' in the world for what they do.

But when you have a systematic lack of GP doctors that keep people healthy from regular ailments, or a lack of access for general public for regular diseases due to the proliferation of high deductible 'insurance' plans; you have a life expectancy that is substantially below that of Western Europe despite spending nearly 2x as a % of GDP.

As for drug research, don't get me started. Majority of drug molecules in the R&D pipeline today are what are classified as orphaned drugs - keep in mind, 4000 patient population @ 250k / year = 1bln/year in sales for an innovative biologic drug. Which is the revenue of the average biologic drug. This is 'great' for the 4000 patients no doubt, but there is a question to be asked whether optimizing for the 4000 people who can afford this drug is a better use of time/R&D dollars than trying to make sure millions of people with COPD don't have to pay equivalent of their monthly mortgage costs for Advair because of the stupid diskus patent.

 

[AndrewS]

Some 50% of healthcare spending is for people within 6 months of passing away in the US.

Just some numbers to level set the discussion here -

View attachment 124734
View attachment 124735

Contrary to popular belief, pharma costs are not the problem. This is the problem:

View attachment 124736

The US healthcare system is really a disease care system - I have no doubt that the best specialists at Johns Hopkins or Mayo Clinic or Memorial Sloan Kettering are indeed the 'best' in the world for what they do.

But when you have a systematic lack of GP doctors that keep people healthy from regular ailments, or a lack of access for general public for regular diseases due to the proliferation of high deductible 'insurance' plans; you have a life expectancy that is substantially below that of Western Europe despite spending nearly 2x as a % of GDP.

As for drug research, don't get me started. Majority of drug molecules in the R&D pipeline today are what are classified as orphaned drugs - keep in mind, 4000 patient population @ 250k / year = 1bln/year in sales for an innovative biologic drug. Which is the revenue of the average biologic drug. This is 'great' for the 4000 patients no doubt, but there is a question to be asked whether optimizing for the 4000 people who can afford this drug is a better use of time/R&D dollars than trying to make sure millions of people with COPD don't have to pay equivalent of their monthly mortgage costs for Advair because of the stupid diskus patent.

The other thing is the sheer amount of time wasted trying to navigate the system, because there is no actual system.
The Economist previously estimated that this bureaucracy and paperwork is at least one-third of all US healthcare costs.

Just the chaos of tens of thousands of healthcare delivery providers of different types, being paid from a myriad of different schemes with different rules. So when you walk into a hospital, you have absolutely no idea what it will cost.

It feels very Byzantine or Kafka

 

[supercat]

You neglect to mention that the US healthcare system has more medication and treatment errors than the UK, Germany, Canada etc

This is arguably the most important "quality" metric in any healthcare system, yet the US "spends" so much more

Source below.

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If you use the yardsticks of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, the US is now behind China, a country with a per capita GDP of 1/5 of America's. Life expectancy is strongly and positively co-related with per capita GDP, so do maternity and infant mortality rates. Yet the US has one of the highest ones among OECD countries, indicating the high degree of inefficiency and the enormous wastefulness of America's healthcare system.

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[chgough34]

Some 50% of healthcare spending is for people within 6 months of passing away in the US.

This is why using life expectancy as a measure of healthcare outcomes is faulty. Population determinants of health outcomes are broadly, not related to healthcare. Obesity, motor vehicle injury, firearm injury, falls, etc -> all of these are nearly entirely outside of hospital activities that drive changes in life expectancy

Just some numbers to level set the discussion here -

View attachment 124734
View attachment 124735

Contrary to popular belief, pharma costs are not the problem. This is the problem:

View attachment 124736


The US healthcare system is really a disease care system - I have no doubt that the best specialists at Johns Hopkins or Mayo Clinic or Memorial Sloan Kettering are indeed the 'best' in the world for what they do.

Yeah. These docs at Hopkins, the Mayo Clinic, Sloan Kettering, etc drive a massive share of health expenditures. This is generally what I mean by the expensive, intensive margin.

As for drug research, don't get me started. Majority of drug molecules in the R&D pipeline today are what are classified as orphaned drugs - keep in mind, 4000 patient population @ 250k / year = 1bln/year in sales for an innovative biologic drug. Which is the revenue of the average biologic drug. This is 'great' for the 4000 patients no doubt, but there is a question to be asked whether optimizing for the 4000 people who can afford this drug is a better use of time/R&D dollars than trying to make sure millions of people with COPD don't have to pay equivalent of their monthly mortgage costs for Advair because of the stupid diskus patent.

For incurable diseases that are made treatable, this is incredibly valuable. If you make a disease with 100% mortality into one with a standard life table, then just the value of accounts payable/accrued payable at 60K a year with 3% in salary growth at a 3% discount rate over 40 years is worth $4.4m + more for nonecomomic benefits. US healthcare expensive has a clear payoffs and these types of interventions only really happen in the U.S. since a lot of consumer surplus is captured by consumers.

you didn’t post it but I feel it’s necessary to address - maternal mortality is simply not comparable across countries, the mechanisms to measure maternal mortality are not the same; having consistent and reliable surveillance of healthcare outcomes is an indicia of quality, and out of pocket costs for medical procedures in other countries are not reliable because the government has a greater share of costs.

 

[gelgoog]

In the US babies and mothers die all the time because of cost cutting.

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[AssassinsMace]

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The US has the most perfect health care system in the history of the world. Just don't ask nor include the people who can't afford it.