Chinese Economics Thread

[Psyclonus]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic and some are too optimistic to China's economy. I am in Shanghai now, the economy situation is really tough in 2023. I got my bachelor and master diploma in top university in China, learning STEM, which give me more advantage in employment market when I graduate from school. It is a fact that it has been hard in recent years for students to find a job. We have to admit a fact that the rapid development in 2010s comes to an end, like other countries in the world.
The progress in high technology industry do create more jobs for us. Our lab was aimed at intelligent vehicle since 2004, for a long time students have no chance to find jobs in this area, but the development in EV and AI change something. But the increased number of head counts still don't match the increasing number of graduate students. The EV brands here are under severe competition, every one works very hard, btw.
Stock market has not been a good investment for a very long time, most Chinese know this. In the last 20 years, the real estate market is. Since 2020 (or maybe earlier), government has decided to change because the economy relies too much on real estate. Even in Shanghai, the price of houses has been decreased. Many families worried that there is no good way for investment.
The reasons are complicated. Since Deng's reform, Government chose be careful with Neo-liberalism reform, partially because the will increase the gap between rich and poor, partially because it will finally lead to De-industrialization. We can see it in today's conflict in Gaza and Ukraine, the western has no power to produce enough weapons. China now is the world biggest industrial country. Although stock market sucks, inflation suppression is good. I can't feel big change in living cost.

 

[chgough34]

How is this the case, when you have this stat for the US? Why do wealthier have better life expectancies, if not for healthcare quality?

Wealthier countries are able to simultaneously improve healthcare quality and provide all kinds of public health non-healthcare interventions such as sanitation and nutrition that also improve life expectancy. The omitted variable bias here is very large. The big determining factor, imo, is that for most people, healthcare utilization has not increased over the past number of decades, yet life expectancy has so the effect of healthcare in particular will be lesser

 

[Randomuser]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic and some are too optimistic to China's economy. I am in Shanghai now, the economy situation is really tough in 2023. I got my bachelor and master diploma in top university in China, learning STEM, which give me more advantage in employment market when I graduate from school. It is a fact that it has been hard in recent years for students to find a job. We have to admit a fact that the rapid development in 2010s comes to an end, like other countries in the world.
The progress in high technology industry do create more jobs for us. Our lab was aimed at intelligent vehicle since 2004, for a long time students have no chance to find jobs in this area, but the development in EV and AI change something. But the increased number of head counts still don't match the increasing number of graduate students. The EV brands here are under severe competition, every one works very hard, btw.
Stock market has not been a good investment for a very long time, most Chinese know this. In the last 20 years, the real estate market is. Since 2020 (or maybe earlier), government has decided to change because the economy relies too much on real estate. Even in Shanghai, the price of houses has been decreased. Many families worried that there is no good way for investment.
The reasons are complicated. Since Deng's reform, Government chose be careful with Neo-liberalism reform, partially because the will increase the gap between rich and poor, partially because it will finally lead to De-industrialization. We can see it in today's conflict in Gaza and Ukraine, the western has no power to produce enough weapons. China now is the world biggest industrial country. Although stock market sucks, inflation suppression is good. I can't feel big change in living cost.

Graduates being unable to find jobs is a global crisis and will only get worse. To think it's a China only thing is actually an insult to people suffering around the world who are sending their 100th application. And I'm talking jobs not underemployment where a master degree guy has to work at McDonald's. Underemployment has been haunting places like Taiwan and Korea for decades now.

There are simply too many graduates and not enough jobs of the required level for those people. With automation and outsourcing coming in, it's even worse.

Governments whine about low birthrates. Maybe they should whine more about low proper employement. But they deep down know they don't have a solution to it.

 

[Serb]

Wealthier countries are able to simultaneously improve healthcare quality and provide all kinds of public health non-healthcare interventions such as sanitation and nutrition that also improve life expectancy. The omitted variable bias here is very large

Isn't this confirming exactly what I said? If the US has better sanitation and nutrition like you say, why is their life expectancy the way it is?

The only explanation left is that their healthcare system is designed very poorly on a broad societal level. Turbo capitalism + bureaucracy.

You see from that graph I posted that rich people there will all soon live to the nineties, but for most people LE stagnates or falls nowadays.

 

[abenomics12345]

I dont think that’s very common since ~95% of people are insured

Wrong. Note the proliferation of High Deductible Health Plan (read: massive co-pay that can bankrupt you)

 

[manqiangrexue]

I´m not saying that China has failed.

Memory fail

Chinese Economics Thread

China`s GDP per capita from National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2013 to 2023; 2023: 89,358 RMB ($12,584) 2022: 85,310 RMB ($12,017) 2021: 81,370 RMB ($11,462) 2020: 71,828 RMB ($10,117) 2019: 70,078 RMB ($9,871) 2018: 65,534 RMB ($9,231) 2017: 59,592 RMB ($8,394) 2016: 53,783 RMB...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

"China seem to fail it´s mission."

As I wrote before. If GDP (nominal) per capita is a measurement of wealth - than China is poorer than Mexico.

OK and as I wrote before, it is a very inaccurant measure of wealth and standard of living. This is the first time I see you've added an "if" to your statement.

I´m not saying that wealth it´s all about GDP (nominal) per capita.

I don't think anybody would, reading your past posts, conclude this about your argument. I'll take this as a new sentiment.

There are several economic factors to be considered. I have actually been to China (Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) but I have never lived there. I´m from Sweden - a country in rapid decline. When it come to Rome. I have only visited once. The quality of accommodation has always been a disappointment in Southern Europe. I cannot really afford to live at 5 star hotels how they are so I would not know about the quality. I stay at more modest 3-4 star hotels.

Ok so now you've ragged on China, Russia, USA, your own country. Name a country in the world you have a high opinion of. At this point, it sounds like a I-hate-the-world rant.

One have to wonder. Why do 12-13 million Chinese live in Western countries and 10 million of them in USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand? The United States alone hold 5.3 million Chinese people. In 1950 Sweden had 397 Chinese immigrants. By the end of 2022 Sweden had 43,980 immigrants - more than half of them are women. Why do Chinese come to the West? Is this because China is economically, culturally and politically developed or is it because China is a impoverished third world country? You live in white man´s land and I doubt you are a mail-order wife.

You have to wonder?? This is obvious. Coming out of WWII, China was impoverished and in disarray. The CCP was founded in 1949 and as a new government, spent the first few decades just getting people's spirits on track. Only in the last 3-4 decades did China really start to develop its economy from a very poor and very technologically backward starting point. It's a very very recent development that China's cities and living standards can rival and surpass the West. Before this point, many people wanted to go somewhere else where the standard of living and level of technology were higher. And decades of that left a heavy psychological impact causing many unlearned Chinese to believe that that is still the case even though the world has changed. It will take some serious time before the dogma that the West is best is dissipated by China's superior performance.

I will say that I enjoy your writings.

Can't say the same. You go on here attacking everything with nonsense and you don't even defend your own country like a gambler at a casino placing bets with empty pockets.

It´s proactive instead of the self-hate that is so common among Chinese and other Asians (in particular some Asian women) in the diaspora.

Another comparison as strange as the China vs Africa one you made LOL. What can I say, I'm not weak-minded and can live in the US without being brainwashed by it.

When China has their own high-bypass engine and is one of the leaders in the semiconductor industry I might agree with you.

Strongest doesn't mean stronger than everyone else combined. Currently no country satisfies your standards; the US has the former but not the latter. The Netherlands has the latter but not the former. China is leading in quantum technology, telecom technology, manufacturing, supercomputing, robotics, EV cars, etc... It published more high impact scientific papers than any other country. Is it the strongest? There's really no final metric but no country can claim any comprehensive superiority over China in all critical fields while China can claim this over the vast majority of other nations, basically eveyone except the US.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic and some are too optimistic to China's economy. I am in Shanghai now, the economy situation is really tough in 2023. I got my bachelor and master diploma in top university in China, learning STEM, which give me more advantage in employment market when I graduate from school. It is a fact that it has been hard in recent years for students to find a job. We have to admit a fact that the rapid development in 2010s comes to an end, like other countries in the world.
The progress in high technology industry do create more jobs for us. Our lab was aimed at intelligent vehicle since 2004, for a long time students have no chance to find jobs in this area, but the development in EV and AI change something. But the increased number of head counts still don't match the increasing number of graduate students. The EV brands here are under severe competition, every one works very hard, btw.
Stock market has not been a good investment for a very long time, most Chinese know this. In the last 20 years, the real estate market is. Since 2020 (or maybe earlier), government has decided to change because the economy relies too much on real estate. Even in Shanghai, the price of houses has been decreased. Many families worried that there is no good way for investment.
The reasons are complicated. Since Deng's reform, Government chose be careful with Neo-liberalism reform, partially because the will increase the gap between rich and poor, partially because it will finally lead to De-industrialization. We can see it in today's conflict in Gaza and Ukraine, the western has no power to produce enough weapons. China now is the world biggest industrial country. Although stock market sucks, inflation suppression is good. I can't feel big change in living cost.

Job market is tough everywhere. A lot of my colleagues have ten+ years of experience and they’ve been laid off, and job searches in tech could easily take half a year or more.

 

[chgough34]

View attachment 124772

Wrong. Note the proliferation of High Deductible Health Plan (read: massive co-pay that can bankrupt you)

HDHPs are generally offered as a cafeteria plan where people choose between HDHPs or more traditional health insurance plans. Since most people don’t use too much healthcare and only need insurance for freak accidents, it makes sense for them to opt into a HDHP (esp. since they’ll get access to a super tax advantaged HSA). These people with employer sponsored health insurance plans in higher income strata are also going to have more liquidity to meet the high deductibles anyway -

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[chgough34]

Isn't this confirming exactly what I said? If the US has better sanitation and nutrition like you say, why is their life expectancy the way it is?

Sanitation and nutrition are not healthcare interventions.

The only explanation left is that their healthcare system is designed very poorly on a broad societal level. Turbo capitalism + bureaucracy.

No. The healthcare system is not responsible for motor vehicle injury or accidental falls or suicide or for most drivers of unnatural death. The U.S. has been uniquely homicidal and uniquely accident-prone for decades among high income countries, and has consequently, had lower LE. It’s not a failure of healthcare.

You see from that graph I posted that rich people there will all soon live to the nineties, but for most people LE stagnates or falls nowadays.

Again, the confounding variables between GDPPC and LE are very large. There is a healthcare channel but there are also public health channels and for that matter, even cases where they’d be negatively causal such as in case of obesity or cars. Using life expectancy to proxy healthcare quality would ignore the hundreds of other more important variables

 

[abenomics12345]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic and some are too optimistic to China's economy. I am in Shanghai now, the economy situation is really tough in 2023. I got my bachelor and master diploma in top university in China, learning STEM, which give me more advantage in employment market when I graduate from school. It is a fact that it has been hard in recent years for students to find a job. We have to admit a fact that the rapid development in 2010s comes to an end, like other countries in the world.
The progress in high technology industry do create more jobs for us. Our lab was aimed at intelligent vehicle since 2004, for a long time students have no chance to find jobs in this area, but the development in EV and AI change something. But the increased number of head counts still don't match the increasing number of graduate students. The EV brands here are under severe competition, every one works very hard, btw.
Stock market has not been a good investment for a very long time, most Chinese know this. In the last 20 years, the real estate market is. Since 2020 (or maybe earlier), government has decided to change because the economy relies too much on real estate. Even in Shanghai, the price of houses has been decreased. Many families worried that there is no good way for investment.
The reasons are complicated. Since Deng's reform, Government chose be careful with Neo-liberalism reform, partially because the will increase the gap between rich and poor, partially because it will finally lead to De-industrialization. We can see it in today's conflict in Gaza and Ukraine, the western has no power to produce enough weapons. China now is the world biggest industrial country. Although stock market sucks, inflation suppression is good. I can't feel big change in living cost.

For those of you who feels I'm getting my information from Serpentza because I'm not as optimistic as they are, listen to someone who's actually in the trenches, who by the way describes exactly what I've been saying.