Chinese Economics Thread

[BrokeGambler]

1. automotive: +12%, still world's largest, and became world's top auto exporter.

I was surprised that Belgium is given as China EU market, but indeed

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however, the question is are EU going to allow China to ruin their car industry (one in the forum said if EU is smart they will import batteries because they don;t have the capacity, but no one will buy EU car with cheap Chinese ones ..)

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And recently BYD not doing well

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5. smartphone: Huawei Mate 60 achieves 30 million sales vs iPhone 42 million in same period, but Apple is declining. Samsung is dead in China.

even with this drop i'm surprised how many Chinese are buying these overpriced IPhones ...

6. semiconductor equipment: 16% growth at NAURA, 32% at AMEC.

Let's see if they manage to be competitive in future when ASML machines cannot be used anymore to keep up to date with less nm from West - I think this is the biggest economy challenge for China?

India's roughly 8% but a little under it; China's a little over 5% but the US 6%?? Where's that from?

this 6 perc is ridiculous i think the biscuit gave it, Cannot check everything and sometimes writing fast on phone , etc

Now if you were simply arguing that China's stock market is not a good long term investment, I'd have to agree with you. It's a short term winner take all gamblers' market. America's stock market is a much better long term investment

Obviously it isn't - no need to argue here. My initial question has been why is this allowed and how pension funds in Honk Kong/China are dealing with this problem. Even if the locals don't invest in stocks when there government funds and others. For instance I'm reading that South Korean pensioners are having huge problems/exposure​

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More than 90 per cent of the notes are held by retail investors, with nearly a third of the holders being over the age of 65.

 

[Biscuits]

Do you have a trillion USD to exchange? Otherwise, let's stick to reality and not your imaginary world.

Do not move goalposts! We're comparing the whole Chinese economy to the whole American economy, not talking about mine or your personal economy. You are purporting American can directly translate trillions of USD to the same value as indicated by forex in RMB. Is that a point you're still arguing?

The rest, irrelevant hypothetical drivel. Reality for the average Chinese person is that their wage growth has far outstripped inflation, they've gone from affording a bike to affording yearly plane travel.

Oh and that car you talk about, just got 20% cheaper for global customers to buy despite Chinese workers putting in the same amount of work.

Not the gotcha you think it is. Use your brain a tiny bit and think what the implication of creating a better product that can reach a larger audience means. Now that more people can afford that car, either the company can mark up the prices to keep selling to the original audience, giving them a bigger profit, or the demand for cars increase, allowing them to hire more workers and/or put their line on higher capacity.

Why else do you think wages are constantly going up in China?

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

I was surprised that Belgium is given as China EU market, but indeed

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however, the question is are EU going to allow China to ruin their car industry (one in the forum said if EU is smart they will import batteries because they don;t have the capacity, but no one will buy EU car with cheap Chinese ones ..)

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It's no longer the question of whether or not Europeans are buying cars with Chinese components - they already are. Find any Tesla or VW in Europe and look at their parts. Now, the question for the future of Europeans is whether they'll be ABLE to afford a car if Chinese cars are kept out. Meanwhile, companies like VW will happily make 2x more money from guillible Europeans for the same cars built in China.

You are way behind the times, buddy.

 

[Nobo]

China´s inflation for 0.2% was 2023. Inflation was 3.1% for United States the same year and I adjusted for inflation.

Spare us the Hollywood bs. US economy is fraud economy, where you can "value" twitter 50 trillion + onlyfan 150 trillion, US will become 200+ trillion economy overnight.

Too bad that writing here can't fix the economy, for that one needs critical thinking

So it needs freedom, democracy & Star Trek 5 level critical thinking?

One can always learn from major biscuit, that 5% growth in China is more than 8% of India and than 6% in USA

You totally nailed It buddy. 6% growth in US economy is like adding another... what ..like 30k additional onlyfan stars? We gotta totally learn how to expand "economic & consumer fields" from US....No.

even with this drop i'm surprised how many Chinese are buying these overpriced IPhones ...

I'm surprised how poor Chinese are buying them, given how bad the economy is doing, & death of a few billion Chinese during COVID . It's another miracle story like the russian one, oh poor Russians, after running out of ammunition 3 years ago & running out of soldiers 2 years ago, now Russia is fighting in Ukraine with ghosts armed with shovels

 

[azn_cyniq]

however, the question is are EU going to allow China to ruin their car industry (one in the forum said if EU is smart they will import batteries because they don;t have the capacity, but no one will buy EU car with cheap Chinese ones ..)

Why not? Chinese batteries are currently regarded as the best in the world.

 

[MortyandRick]

one in the forum said if EU is smart they will import batteries because they don;t have the capacity, but no one will buy EU car with cheap Chinese ones ..)

Not sure who said that but Tesla produced at Tesla Berlin is already using BYD batteries since 2023. And Europeans are buying Tesla model Y cars.

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And recently BYD not doing well

Sure they exceeded their sales target, but not their profits target. Have you seen Tesla?

I can cherry pick too

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[abenomics12345]

If I proclaimed a country with just me and my roommate in it, then set 1 unit of its currency to be equal to 30 trillion USD and buy a cup of coffee from the roommate with 1 unit, does that now give me a larger economy than the US one?

Do not move goalposts! We're comparing the whole Chinese economy to the whole American economy, not talking about mine or your personal economy.

You're the one who brought out this ludicrous example - and I'm the one moving the goal post? Give me a break.

China's nominal GDP is by definition (in the nominal part) not affected by inflation, since it's in RMB.

My original point here stands - this is the dumbest thing that anyone has ever said in the history of currency.

According to you, when 500g of pork used to cost 1.2 rmb 30 years ago and now they cost 8-10 rmb - that is not inflation at all.

either the company can mark up the prices to keep selling to the original audience, giving them a bigger profit, or the demand for cars increase, allowing them to hire more workers and/or put their line on higher capacity.

You mean like all the steel companies that went bankrupt in 2015 as they were producing steel that nobody wanted? You mean like all the empty apartments built in fucking Hegang or Hohhot that everyone is lining up to buy?

Use your brain, 'production' or 'stuff' is only useful in so far that is used.

 

[Biscuits]

You're the one who brought out this ludicrous example - and I'm the one moving the goal post? Give me a break.

You can have your break when you explain how forex rates can be applied 1:1 when dealing with sums like 20-30T USD equivalent. That's was your original idiotic point, which you have yet to address.

My original point here stands - this is the dumbest thing that anyone has ever said in the history of currency.

According to you, when 500g of pork used to cost 1.2 rmb 30 years ago and now they cost 8-10 rmb - that is not inflation at all.

I was talking about the inflation of other currencies not affecting China's nominal, RMB denominated GDP, nitwit. Stop twisting words.

You mean like all the steel companies that went bankrupt in 2015 as they were producing steel that nobody wanted? You mean like all the empty apartments built in fucking Hegang or Hohhot that everyone is lining up to buy?

Real triple A tier analysis right there: "bankrupt companies and empty apartments exist, therefore everything is horrible". No mention of statistical trends or indicators at all. Urbanisation? Who needs that? Who has the largest steel industry and economy in the world? Who cares. There were a few companies that went bust. Ergo: everything is horrible.

 

[TK3600]

Conversion dont matter more than needs to use USD for trade. US products are not competitive. On other hand, US import more from China. It makes more sense to measure US economy with yuan than reverse (dont do either).

 

[abenomics12345]

I was talking about the inflation of other currencies not affecting China's nominal, RMB denominated GDP, nitwit. Stop twisting words.

This is categorically and objectively false you imbecile.

Sinopec and PetroChina imports petroleum in USD from Non-Russian sources (and in USD from all sources before the war) - when the price of oil goes up in USD terms, Sinopec and Petrochina have to raise prices or lose money. Your argument here would be akin to claiming that gasoline/polyethylene/polypropylene prices in China do not fluctuate when global oil prices move.

When COFCO imports soybeans from the US it pays for it in USD, your argument here would be as stupid as to claiming that soybean and therefore beef prices in China do not fluctuate when global soybean prices move.

When ENN Energy imports LNG using a J-curve based off of Brent, or straight up with a processing fee added onto Henry Hub, your argument would be as dumb as to claiming that natural gas prices in China do not fluctuate when natural gas prices globally fluctuate.

When Baowu steel imports coking coal or iron ore from Australia they do so in USD, your argument would be as dumb as to claim that when iron ore or coking coal prices fluctuate in USD that steel prices in China do not move.

You can have your break when you explain how forex rates can be applied 1:1 when dealing with sums like 20-30T USD equivalent. That's was your original idiotic point, which you have yet to address.

I specifically made a point here to address the idiocy of your original statement - you are the one who started comparing entire economies.

Urbanisation?

Because everyone is just *dying* to move to Hegang.

Conversion dont matter more than needs to use USD for trade.

...and unless we are in a world where RMB is a globally accepted currency, USD/RMB conversion rates matter especially considering how big of a component international trade matters. You want to sell EVs to Europe? You sell in Euros in *2024*. You want to sell Sany excavators to SE Asia? You sell in USD in *2024*.

The claim that "inflation in other currencies do not impact inflation in China" is so farfetched from reality that you need to check into an mental hospital.

To invert this claim, do you also claim that when cheaper Chinese EVs hit Europe it doesn't cause deflationary forces in Europe? Because that's the level of stupidity embedded in @Biscuits' assumption.