Chinese Economics Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

Oh the crashing economy with 30 million cars sold! The horror! What will the Chinese do with their terrible stock market and only bountiful, low-priced material goods! Where will they put all that money that they earned??? The Europeans are so lucky, living off American Freedom Gas (TM) [Supply not guranteed] and enjoying their healthy stock market! Surely the signs of a vibrant economy must be paying over twice the price for the same car produced in China!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677258594352345088

but but but you don't understand, a car is a depreciating asset, see? it just went down in price even against the orders of VW's CEO!

now stocks, that's an appreciating asset, same with a 500 sq ft studio in the ghetto that rents for $3000 USD. only way to go is up!

 

[GodRektsNoobs]

but but but you don't understand, a car is a depreciating asset, see? it just went down in price even against the orders of VW's CEO!

You are absolutely right, but I would much rather appreciate their depreciation before I buy them - as in case of Samsung phones. Not after.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

You are absolutely right, but I would much rather appreciate their depreciation before I buy them - as in case of Samsung phones. Not after.

The only problem of the Chinese economy right now is that it is under attack by financial sharks.

Physical health is fine from the core consumer and industrial categories:

1. automotive: +12%, still world's largest, and became world's top auto exporter.

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2. retail: +7.2%

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3. ecommerce: +11%, still world's largest

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4. renewable energy: still world's largest, contributed 26% GDP

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5. smartphone: Huawei Mate 60 achieves 30 million sales vs iPhone 42 million in same period, but Apple is declining. Samsung is dead in China.

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6. semiconductor equipment: 16% growth at NAURA, 32% at AMEC.

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The only problem is the sharks. And to deal with sharks, you need shark hunting equipment.

 

[Chevalier]

Oh the crashing economy with 30 million cars sold! The horror! What will the Chinese do with their terrible stock market and only bountiful, low-priced material goods! Where will they put all that money that they earned??? The Europeans are so lucky, living off American Freedom Gas (TM) [Supply not guranteed] and enjoying their healthy stock market! Surely the signs of a vibrant economy must be paying over twice the price for the same car produced in China!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677258594352345088

Maybe the VW CEO needs to be reminded of how a market economy works; we don't all live in a feudal oligarchy like the anglo led 'Rules Based Order'. Some of us have to adapt to market conditions.

 

[Maikeru]

Latest IMF World Economic Outlook Update published:

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[siegecrossbow]

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[abenomics12345]

And for asset-backed debt, we should look at the utilization rates/value of those assets, not the value of GDP, for debt-carrying capacity.

The world bank economic update I shared had this - the return on those LGFVs in aggregate are below the cost of said asset backed debt.

Xi doesn't hold absolute power yet, seeing by all the crying the oligarchs are able to do.

BTW, speaking of Hong Kong markets:

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Hedge funds will GTFO the moment they see a negative data print - you really don't realize this is not actually the type of 'investors' you want to attract, do you.

2. retail: +7.2%

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Let me remind you again how how I was attacked for being "overly conservative" when I forecasted 8% retail sales in 2023 a year ago - 7.2 is below 8.

 

[J.Whitman]

Although China saw it´s GDP (nominal) grow with 5.2 in 2023 and that China lost two million people there has been little change in GDP (nominal) per capita. China´s GDP (PPP) per capita is rising and China become more productive but the weak RMB drives down the nominal GDP. China has also a rising problem with debt and not only demographics. Many commentators at this forum claim that China will eventually pass the USA´s GDP (nominal) and perhaps this is true but this may take decades. To some extent the 2023 was overall a disappointing year for China compared with the pre-Covid era.

 

[Biscuits]

Although China saw it´s GDP (nominal) grow with 5.2 in 2023 and that China lost two million people there has been little change in GDP (nominal) per capita. China´s GDP (PPP) per capita is rising and China become more productive but the weak RMB drives down the nominal GDP. China has also a rising problem with debt and not only demographics. Many commentators at this forum claim that China will eventually pass the USA´s GDP (nominal) and perhaps this is true but this may take decades. To some extent the 2023 was overall a disappointing year for China compared with the pre-Covid era.

China's nominal GDP is by definition (in the nominal part) not affected by inflation, since it's in RMB. In China, activity is conducted nominally through RMB only, in order to compare economies with some place that doesn't also only conduct activity by only RMB, you'll need to adjust for inflation first.

 

[abenomics12345]

China's nominal GDP is by definition (in the nominal part) not affected by inflation, since it's in RMB.

???

So you're saying when China imports crude from Russia using RMB, it uses 'real RMB' as opposed to 'nominal RMB'?