Chinese Economics Thread

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Also agree with everything that my Serbian pal wrote, just gonna add few more details.
The major hype in western MSM is overinvestment and overconstruction in China, like as they say ``ghost towns`` infrastructure (road, rail) that leads from nowhere to nowhere... and similar bollocks.
Real estate and infrastructure investments are ahead of urbanization pace, but that is highly justified and desirable by many reasons:
- Using cheaper labor, material, energy at the moment, to build as much as possible real estate and infrastructure, because construction costs in the future will be much higher (see the US, they are struggling to construct anything, even to maintain existing staff coz of overpriced costs of everything, like even minor stadium refurbishments costs half a billion of dollars lol).
- Using availability of construction materials, energy (oil, iron ore...) sensitive to geopolitical competition, that might be unavailable, or less available with much higher prices any time in the future.
US is honestly just getting trolled by their own artificial price inflation, created by their face saving need to make their gdp higher.

American workers are not particularly expensive. Within the lowest tier, many take home less money than their direct counterparts in China. What is expensive is getting permits, insurance and admin/paperwork for the operation.

A pervasive culture of corruption have allowed government officials and rentiers to demand exceptional prices for extremely simple services. Like billing 1000$ for a bag of saline. How do most Americans manage to pay for these services while having less savings than most Europeans and Chinese? The answer is, they don't. Insurance, which is the buddy of the officials and capitalists, pays. And how does insurance gain the money from which they pay this? By having connections with the companies and government agencies which set the standards and control the supply.

This type of absurdity is why it's expensive to do stuff in America, even as the people themselves aren't rich.

It's an ever increasing circulation of worthless(they're not used to expand the country's capability nor to improve living standard) dollars collected into bank accounts of billionaires.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
China really needs to up its game in biology, medicine, healthcare technologies and research. UK and US lead in these fields by quite some margin with some of China's major contributions here being in agricultural biology, not even for human healthcare. Might have something to do with prioritising resources, having a huge population, being relatively poorer, lower value of life and lower social development compared to industrialised and fully developed western nations. Still with China absolutely smashing it in basically every other industry and scientific field, biosciences is a glaring oversight.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
In reality, Pharma- US leads because medicine is a priority sector. This sector attracts the best talent and get huge infusion of funds. It is substantially more than in China or Europe. Your logic about health in the two countries is not credible.


Why is it a priority sector? Because mega corporations in that sector lobby and control governments and create favorable conditions for their businesses to thrive in that country, hence having more money and attracting more talent. I thought this was basic common knowledge, just look at painkiller or anti-depressant relative usage in China vs the US, look at drug costs (more profit for corporation, allowing for bigger growth), etc.

It is very common for Chinese drugs to cost up to 30-50 times less than in the US, just follow the news, the most recent ones were one diabetic drug and one cancer drug. If you get injured somehow in China, doctors prescribe you much fewer painkillers, etc, no bullshit SSRI, government is in power and not greedy mega-corporations. See how they are allowed to market heavily to doctors, and legally bribe them, etc. None of this is legal in China. You are mistaking the cause and consequence. Their bigger talent pool is a result of all of those factors I mentioned on a fundamental level, it didn't come from nothing.

And that's not logic about health in two countries, it's facts. China spends 2 times less on healthcare (but for the complete population than the US spends on only a fraction of the population) and still gets better results (in terms of life expectancy and health span measured by various metrics like metabolic syndrome and other chronic diseases). Just go look at life expectancies. It's common knowledge that the Chinese healthcare system and culture historically focus heavily on prevention and something is way easier and less expensive to treat the earlier it is found.

More on healthcare, the primary difference is that the healthcare system in the US is fully private, and private actors care mostly about their own profits, they care less about the healthiness of their citizens, that's human nature. That's why socialized healthcare systems like in China work much better in almost all cases. In the US, pharmaceutical giants are pushing ultra-expensive drugs, and private clinics are charging millions of dollars, so not many people can afford it all, and they don't care all that much about prevention. (Also can put way more harmful chemicals into the food, because once again, corporations control the government in the US, and the opposite is in China).

That's why China is winning in healthcare. Real affordable and prevention-focused healthcare system and government slapping around its pharmaceutical companies to lower prices and to not even think about getting their citizens drugged on unnecessary medications. That's why Chinese pharmaceutical giants don't have that much money for R&D like in the US. Because there is no need for such over-production of drugs.


Transportation- As you surmised USA leads because of its aircraft industry. This is one the hardest sectors to break into both technically and financially. Even China’s indigenous jet C919 has lots of foreign parts.


They lead in aircraft manufacturing because that's the strategic transportation sector to them historically. After all, they are a much less densely populated country and that is the most optimal primary national way of transportation for them in between large cities.

Meanwhile, for China, the primary national transportation is high-speed rail due to the population density of the area in which the majority of them live. You can go among major Chinese cities with high-speed rail in just 4 hours, and due to the economics of scale, at super cheap costs.

And now compare Chinese achievements in the aircraft manufacturing industry (not their primary), and the US achievements in high-speed rail (not their primary), and it's a staggering achievement. Imagine the US beating China in high-speed rail in 10 years, and that's what China will do to them in aircraft manufacturing.


Lastly, regarding IT, just look at the industries in which US startups originate, vs in China, and you will see that most of that US IT "might" go into services, whereas Chinese IT goes into much more valuable sectors. (Not that crazy if you understand their different GDP structures).
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Going to transportation (ex. motor vehicles), the bulk of this will probably come from the US's stronger aircraft manufacturing industry. But you need to see the fundamental reason for this once again. For China, due to its geography and population distribution, it was simply way more beneficial to develop the high-speed rail industry first than the aircraft industry (the US way more sparsely populated country).

Just to add:

If you take Hubei province in the middle of China and then draw a 1000km circle (3-4 hours on a high speed train) from there, you get 1 billion people and all of this area has a high or a very high population density.

On average you're looking at 2-3x that of Germany or France.

That is enough population density for trains to beat airplanes in terms of efficiency/applicability.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also agree with everything that my Serbian pal wrote, just gonna add few more details.
The major hype in western MSM is overinvestment and overconstruction in China, like as they say ``ghost towns`` infrastructure (road, rail) that leads from nowhere to nowhere... and similar bollocks.
Real estate and infrastructure investments are ahead of urbanization pace, but that is highly justified and desirable by many reasons:
- Using cheaper labor, material, energy at the moment, to build as much as possible real estate and infrastructure, because construction costs in the future will be much higher (see the US, they are struggling to construct anything, even to maintain existing staff coz of overpriced costs of everything, like even minor stadium refurbishments costs half a billion of dollars lol).
- Using availability of construction materials, energy (oil, iron ore...) sensitive to geopolitical competition, that might be unavailable, or less available with much higher prices any time in the future.

Yeah, and China should build up its infrastructure now when the labor costs are relatively cheaper in the economy than in the future as the people's standards of living rise. And while they still have that many skilled workers in those heavy construction industries circulating further lowering their labor cost (for now probably most of them in the world by any country and by a landslide margin).

But, just a side note, China produces most of those kinds of raw materials for the infrastructure necessary in the world (they don't import it from elsewhere), so they get it for way cheaper, with no transportation or import costs, and hassles, materials made everywhere, great supply and demand dynamics as well, and that's why infrastructure is so much cheaper in China. That's why people get much lower transportation costs, electricity costs, water costs, other utilities costs, telecommunications, etc.

Because of the economics of scale, more people share the same infrastructure due to China's tremendous population density so the cost gets spread out among all of them, allowing the government to charge less on bills. But no one from the West factors information like these when calculating actual tangible standards of living between China and the world. And that's not even explaining other hidden factors.
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
China really needs to up its game in biology, medicine, healthcare technologies and research. UK and US lead in these fields by quite some margin with some of China's major contributions here being in agricultural biology, not even for human healthcare. Might have something to do with prioritising resources, having a huge population, being relatively poorer, lower value of life and lower social development compared to industrialised and fully developed western nations. Still with China absolutely smashing it in basically every other industry and scientific field, biosciences is a glaring oversight.
If you actually look at the numbers, it doesn't seem to shabby.
China is at roughly 17% in global Pharmaceutical output, while the US is at 28.4%.
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Meanwhile the US isn't just the bigger economy, but it also spends 3 times more of its GDP on healthcare than China.
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I'd expect China to double its share of healthcare to GDP with its aging demographics, at that point Chinas greatly expanded internal market should lead to a much higher pharmaceutical output.
 
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Arij Javaid

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you actually look at the numbers, it doesn't seem to shabby.
China is at roughly 17% in global Pharmaceutical output, while the US is at 28.4%.
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Meanwhile the US isn't just the bigger economy, but it also spends 3 times more of its GDP on healthcare than China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I'd expect China to double its share of healthcare to GDP with its aging demographics, at that point Chinas greatly expanded internal market should lead to a much higher pharmaceutical output.
China is a bigger economy than US if you measure it by PPP. So china can afford to spend more.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
In reality, Pharma- US leads because medicine is a priority sector. This sector attracts the best talent and get huge infusion of funds. It is substantially more than in China or Europe. Your logic about health in the two countries is not credible.

I would respectfully disagree on this point.

As I got some very deep ingrained biases.

In America this is all a racket.

The stock market and financial industry is rigged, it is a racket.

The pharmaceutical industry has the big companies own everyone's you know what, that is an entire racket.

Even education is a racket, with certain schools not admitting the best academically qualified students.

That is why for some industries like health care and education, in America the costs are always going up far more than anything else because they industries are rackets nowadays.

Now the entrenched special interests are too deep into the system to be able to root out some of the problems.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
The main culprit is China doing policies which greatly suppress medical costs, this is good for the consumers and for life expectancy, but not good to grow the market, or provide an ideal environment for medical staff.

Even so, when it comes total pharma production, China is by far a net exporter, they're just not the no1 when it comes to the total value of the pharms. Which value basically depends on what local pharmacy benefit managers negotiate.
 

supercat

Major
The major hype in western MSM is overinvestment and overconstruction in China, like as they say ``ghost towns`` infrastructure (road, rail) that leads from nowhere to nowhere... and similar bollocks.
It's probably not that much compared to the trillions of dollars the US wasted in the wars of choices and their annul military budget.

China's growth forecast by the Bank of China:
  • 5.3% in 2023
  • 5.0% in 2024
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Electricity consumption rose 6.3% YoY in the first 11 months.

The retail sales of social consumer goods climbed 7.2% YoY in the first 11 months.

China will be the world's largest auto exporter in 2023.

China may be exporting more than it appears. But at what cost?

Is China understating its own export success?​

The $230bn puzzle at the heart of the country’s trade figures

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