ASEAN ex-Singapore will take much longer than one or two decades. I give it three to four decades minimum.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Not at all. China is losing 1 million births a year which is about 2/3rd of Vietnam's annual births of 1.5 million.
This isn't true at all. East Asian countries simply aren't rich enough to attract the kind of immigrants they want yet. That doesn't mean they're anti-immigration.
Japan is anti-immigration and they are rich. And that's despite them being in the Western block with defining pro-immigration ideology. The same is true for South Korea.
Both Japan and Korea have around 7 times fewer immigrants as a percentage of the population than major countries in the EU and the US.
Therefore, I see even less of a chance for China, which is not under the Western block, to accept any kind of mass immigration in the future, basically 0 chance. I'm not including overseas Chinese returning, high net-worth individuals, or other specialized programs.
We can talk about selective, high-quality immigration of educated and intelligent immigrants, but that's not many people.
And also China has no problem with creating a high-quality productive and educated population from its own base in tremendous numbers.
When you say East Asian, I typically associate it only with China, Japan, and Korea, and they are very close culturally and genetically. (Also all 3 are historically very closed societies due to their geographies).
Therefore, if under Western pressure Japan and South Korea are anti-immigration, then it's logical to assume that China is even more so that.
China was never a closed society. We didn't go from small bronze age tribes along the Yellow River to a continent spanning empire by being closed off. Our culture did not spread from China to the furthest reaches of Central Asia and tropical Vietnam by being closed off.
China's geography is closed on 2 sides, but open to the north, particularly the northwest, and connected with Indian Ocean trade to the south. We ruled an empire, so did Persia and Rome, we could not afford to be closed off. We sent envoys to India and Persia in 100 BC and Japan in 200 AD. Expensive missions with the main purpose of exploration and learning. We tried to reach Rome but were tricked by the Persians. We traded with Arabia via sea. Closed off? Meanwhile Japan and Korea were hanging people for talking with foreigners.
Korea was known as the hermit kingdom, but nobody ever said China was the hermit empire.
For today:
Japan and South Korea are not rich enough for the hard work necessary to integrate to attract immigrants.
Example: South Korea is legally very open to immigration. They've been trying to attract immigrants.
You just have to learn Korean, the language furthest from indo European languages that 50% of the world speaks - further than even Chinese. Korean does not even have the same sentence structure as indo European languages and the language changes depending on the relative social position because of honorifics. You have to learn it well enough to live there for 5 years while employed by a Korean company.
Then you and all your children have to agree to be conscripted for 2 years in your youth, to fight in case of apocalyptic nuclear WW3.
Then you have to accept that your children will be working as hard as they would in a 3rd world country in school.
You know how Indians talk about how they lose sleep and cram for JEE tests for IIT? That's everyone in South Korea.
And for all that, you get paid 3k USD a month while paying developed country prices.
An IT professional in India can get paid 10-15k USD while paying Indian prices.
that's not hourly. Koreans work some of the longest hours in the world.
and 50% of Koreans attend university so what usually gets someone in the door in the west is just normal in South Korea.
Demographic decline of China in future is the only card the west has to stop the rise of China. In every single article predicting the decline of China, demographic decline is the main reason given. In every thing else, it is acknowledged that China will catch up and maybe even overtake the west.
In fact, this belief that the future of China is bleak because of demographic decline is one of the main reasons for the present state of bad relations between the West and China.
Western politicians are convinced that if they can only hold China back for a few years through tech sanctions, then the demographic decline will start biting into China’s progress and China will never become a great power to challenge the west. These politicians don‘t accept the argument that demographic decline can be countered with robotics and A.I. because these cannot solve the problem of demand.
If however, China manages to show to the world that there won’t be any big demographic decline then the belligerence of Western politicians will drop drastically. They will come to accept that the rise of China is inevitable so why quarrel with a power that will eclipse you soon. They will try to find ways to collaborate rather than confront.
If China stands a dedicated corps to battle demographic decline, I will volunteer.
Keep in mind that unlimited population growth is not desirable. Any growth in population means significant a significant impact on the environment, which is already very strained. There aren’t unlimited resources on the planet, and using as much as we are isn’t sustainable.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
This is an imagined scenerio. The truth is, the US always looks for something in China to convince itself that China can be defeated, because otherwise, they would just have to look at how many Chinese people there are, how many study STEM, how they dominate all STEM academics in the West, and conclude they should give up early for some grace. Americans used to talk about "Authoritarian governments create people who can't innovate," a fotal flaw, right? Now Raimundo's screaming at Europe to help stall Chinese innovation LOL. Then there was the "inevitable" hard landing, middle-income trap, etc... Even the only dude who gave you a like on your post, @gadgetcool5, exhibits the exact same pattern. He used to always talk about China's declining or stagnant car sales as the sure-fire sign the China's economy is stalled. No matter what metric you showed him, GDP growth, electricity usage, start ups, whatever, it didn't matter to him; China's economy is doomed because car sales won't go up. Now that that's over and China leads heads and shoulders over the rest of the world in EV, he's never mentioned a car again; he prefers horse carriage now.... oh, and talking about the "demographic crisis," of course LOL.
I'm not worried about it at all. This is just a trend like all others and birth rate will always find homeostatis with resources and needs. China might rebalance into a lower more high-tech, high-standard of living population but once homeostasis is reached with the resources available, the birth rate will reflect that and sustain the population again. And whatever that number is, it will be a more modern, more educated society and way more than what America can handle because even 1 on 1, Chinese kids easily smoke the competition in every American school. Demgraphic "crisis" nothin'.
And don't ever expect a dominant power to throw the fight to you; it has never happened in history. Don't waste your time trying to convince them of anything; they cling to power until it is ripped from them by a greater force. Prepare for the conflict with anticipation; savor your preparation; relish your time waiting for him and your plans of what you will do to him. Be angry and disappointed if your enemy denies it to you by backing down. That is the way to win.
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