Chinese Economics Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Which job that need to employ people as much as the job that AI gonna disrupt?

Of course there will be more specialize job but It won't employs people as much as the job that get disrupted.

I already explained it in my previous comment, looks like you didn't understand it. If people have more money due to more prosperity coming from AI, then people will have more money for luxuries such as more entertainment, more massage, more servants, more butlers, more specialized jobs that focus on only one thing, such as sommelier or steak expert, dog groomers. Just look at how wealthy people live and imagine if even middle-class are enjoying the same level of luxuries, that's the level of servants and specialized service provides there will be. There will never be a shortage of jobs.

 

[Arij Javaid]

The 21st century economy will be heavily dependent on technological prowess. Despite China's declining population, if China leads the rest of the world in cutting edge technology, its exports and global demand will continue to make china's GDP grow.

Finally, to address the demographics, China has a lot of different ways to tackle it some of which is not applicable right now.

Once china's GDP per Capita grows and living standards rise, China can allow immigration from south east Asian countries like Indonesia and other countries like mongolia and Vietnam as immigrants from these countries will be attracted by high living standards.

The 2nd way is to implement automation in every sector of the economy, this will ensure that China's productivity and manufacturing capabilities remain. The only problem would be consumption, however if China excels in all other areas, the lack of domestic consumption can be overshadowed.

 

[donjasjit]

Once china's GDP per Capita grows and living standards rise, China can allow immigration from south east Asian countries like Indonesia and other countries like mongolia and Vietnam as immigrants from these countries will be attracted by high living standards.

The 2nd way is to implement automation in every sector of the economy, this will ensure that China's productivity and manufacturing capabilities remain. The only problem would be consumption, however if China excels in all other areas, the lack of domestic consumption can be overshadowed.

Immigration is a non-starter as experience with ethnically similar Korea and Japan reveals. The east asian culture likes to be homogeneous, they don't want to get immigrants.

Japan and Korea desperately need immigrants and they are rich enough to attract them and yet they don't get too many immigrants. China will be a similar story.

Automation is already happening at an incredible pace.

 

[Umut]

India will soon be a land of regular 40+ C temperatures. The Indian monsoon is also increasingly disrupted and shortened. They won't make it.

İn any case, it is necessary to find a solution to the population decline.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Immigration is a non-starter as experience with ethnically similar Korea and Japan reveals. The east asian culture likes to be homogeneous, they don't want to get immigrants.

Japan and Korea desperately need immigrants and they are rich enough to attract them and yet they don't get too many immigrants. China will be a similar story.

Automation is already happening at an incredible pace.

Also, the bigger problem is that the population loss that China would need to make up exceeds the combined total of all mass immigration in human history. For example, in 2022 alone, the number of births dropped by over 1 million, which is about 2/3 of all annual births in Vietnam. So even if 2/3 of Vietnam's entire population moved to China in only one year, it would only make for that one year of decline.

Further, if the immigrants assimilated into Chinese society, they would adopt the same ultra low birth rate norms and in another generation, China would be right back where it started with the same problem.

Therefore, only real solution is for China to figure out how to raise its native birth rate.

 

[xypher]

For example, in 2022 alone, the number of births dropped by over 1 million, which is about 2/3 of all annual births in Vietnam. So even if 2/3 of Vietnam's entire population moved to China in only one year, it would only make for that one year of decline.

So you're saying that China is losing 60+ million people each year since 2/3rd of Vietnam's entire population (around 100 million) would only offset one year? You have any proof of that?

 

[Serb]

Therefore, only real solution is for China to figure out how to raise its native birth rate.

And most likely scenario to accomplish this, 20-30 years from now, will be implementing some kind of government policy allowing for more children in their social credit system or something similar, meaning clear benefits for having more children, and clear penalties for not having more children. Who knows, maybe they even invent something akin to artificial wombs. China is the only country in the world that could accomplish something like this due to its unique hyper-efficient political system and supporting population. I don't think that immigrants are necessary in their case, nor that they are the most optimal choice for them because they are smart, unlike the West, and principally value societal homogeneity.

 

[paiemon]

And most likely scenario to accomplish this, 20-30 years from now, will be implementing some kind of government policy allowing for more children in their social credit system or something similar, meaning clear benefits for having more children, and clear penalties for not having more children. Who knows, maybe they even invent something akin to artificial wombs. China is the only country in the world that could accomplish something like this due to its unique hyper-efficient political system and supporting population. I don't think that immigrants are necessary in their case, nor that they are the most optimal choice for them because they are smart, unlike the West, and principally value societal homogeneity.

Imho, a key part in the low birth rate is people don't want to sacrifice their lifestyles to support children, especially since for most people it involves huge expenditures (both financial and emotional) since most societies don't provide much support to families. Therefore, if countries want more children, they are going to have to step up to the plate and offer those social supports (enforced, not just on paper) such as parental leave, subsidized child care, education expenses, workforce accommodation, housing costs, etc. If society benefits from children, they should share in the burden, it should not be parents left holding the bag for 20+ years.

Regarding immigration, China like most East Asian societies is homogeneous, but it would be foolish to turn down valuable talent. China doesn't need the volume immigration to fill job/skills gaps, it has plenty of tools to address that via automation or skills development in its existing population. However, should the opportunity arise to attract value-add talent who fit with the society, it would be prudent to do so, like a talent acquisition program.

 

[TK3600]

Imho, a key part in the low birth rate is people don't want to sacrifice their lifestyles to support children, especially since for most people it involves huge expenditures (both financial and emotional) since most societies don't provide much support to families. Therefore, if countries want more children, they are going to have to step up to the plate and offer those social supports (enforced, not just on paper) such as parental leave, subsidized child care, education expenses, workforce accommodation, housing costs, etc. If society benefits from children, they should share in the burden, it should not be parents left holding the bag for 20+ years.

Regarding immigration, China like most East Asian societies is homogeneous, but it would be foolish to turn down valuable talent. China doesn't need the volume immigration to fill job/skills gaps, it has plenty of tools to address that via automation or skills development in its existing population. However, should the opportunity arise to attract value-add talent who fit with the society, it would be prudent to do so, like a talent acquisition program.

Exactly. Birth rate is a cultural issue. The best example would be France. Its declining birth rate started way back before French revolution. Despite generally being a colonizer and embrace industrial revolution, its birth rate failed to go up like neighbors.

Culture is the only causal factor here. It will control birth rate independent of economic factors, contraceptions. If people value big family, they will have kids. If they don't no amount of money will convince them.

 

[Chish]

The 21st century economy will be heavily dependent on technological prowess. Despite China's declining population, if China leads the rest of the world in cutting edge technology, its exports and global demand will continue to make china's GDP grow.

Finally, to address the demographics, China has a lot of different ways to tackle it some of which is not applicable right now.

Once china's GDP per Capita grows and living standards rise, China can allow immigration from south east Asian countries like Indonesia and other countries like mongolia and Vietnam as immigrants from these countries will be attracted by high living standards.

The 2nd way is to implement automation in every sector of the economy, this will ensure that China's productivity and manufacturing capabilities remain. The only problem would be consumption, however if China excels in all other areas, the lack of domestic consumption can bethe less overshadowed.

China do take immigrants who have relevant PhD or skills. Some Korean , Japanese and Taiwanese are already working in China. But it's only a short term solution.
In one or two decades much of Asean will be much more developed and advanced , they too will be attracting immigrants from less developed areas. Some affluent and successful people already made Singapore their second home. Singapore offers permanent residency for highly qualified immigrants and temporary visa or daily pass over the Causeway, thus already competing with China for best employees.