Chinese Economics Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Except it is tho. We clown on India because it is very far behind even the number 2, and most of that Indian gdp goes towards keeping the country itself afloat.

But India is surely a lot more useful than fucking Germany lol. Germany which has a miniscule army that can donate at the most a few hundred T72 equivalents, their supposed strong point being their industrial sector, which is comparable in quantity and quality to a single Chinese province.

Yes, India is undeniably more powerful than that, and the real, adjusted, comparative gdp is needed in order to represent that reality.

Absolutely wrong. There is no such thing as comparing nominal GDP between 2 different currencies.

The reason is simple, if you do not calculate inflation, you're using 1 country's standards to calculate everyone else's.

If you forget to calculate inflation, what you're looking at is an alternate reality where for example Chinese people pay 100 000$ for a simple surgery, or pay 10$ for a carton of eggs. What your measure is saying is that in this alternate reality, China would be a smaller economy than the US. But that is wrong and not reflecting of reality.

No, that is just how the central bank believes is most conductive to growth.

To provide you of an example of why not normalising for inflation will give you shit results: consider the following, China can simple decide to massively hike the RMB and conduct several big "transactions" which do not affect the economy (if you normalize it out), that way, the gdp nominal of China would hike by trillions within 1 day. Using that method, China can have a nominal GDP of 40, 50 trillion, really the sky is the only limit.

But if you normalize for inflation, China would still fall back to the 32.9 trillion that their economy actually is.

You do not evaluate how someone looks based on photoshop picture, because that is temporary and prone to personal fluctuations. You look at them based on what they actually look like, because that is a non quickly unalterable product.

Per the word's definition, China is the largest economy and market in the world. This isn't a subjective measure that can be avoided with humbleness or what not. It is simply based on the hard numbers and economy sizes.

But just being the largest economy does not mean it can dictate global economy alone. China must still work in collaboration with smaller economies that together make up a larger share than China does.

Are you seriously comparing India with Germany, the same Germany that steamrolled through Europe with its industrial might? Its so funny. India cannot even produce its own handgun without foreign help. Germany with its mature industry can easily produce every type of planes, tanks and submarines there is and in huge numbers.

Just because Germany deliberately chose to develop a weak military because of their political positions has nothing to do with their economic and industrial power to produce weapons. If they do decide to change their mindset and decide to get rid US vassalism and develop their true military potential, They would easily beat Russia in Weapons production.


But again, GDP is not just about Industrial might. I am talking about overall economic might. The only reason we care about comparing countries with GDP is because of how powerful and important an economy is, not because how cheap haircut is between two countries.

GDP PPP measures how many haircuts and other services each country does in 1 year tries to put equal value in the price that haircut.

But one cannot just put equal value to haircuts in 2 countries. There is a reason a haircut is more expensive in a rich country like Germany or US compared to the likes of India. Its because there are highly developed industries such as chips, biotech or car industry available in the country which attracts most of the labor force. So, this demand for labor creates opportunities for even low skilled labor to attain a high enough price.


If US or Germany has inflation and its currency is still NOT losing value, that means their currency has enough staying power due to exports and investor faith. That is not true for China for example which must battle Investor fear and capital flight with strict capital controls. That is the difference in economic might between China and the US or other rich countries.

 

[J.Whitman]

BNP (nominal) is still an important measurement. The IMF 2028 estimate is;

- USA : $32,690,373
- China: $23,608,859

The United States GDP (nominal) will be 28% larger than that of China in 2028. Then you look at the GDP (PPP) numbers for 2028;

- China: $43,889,882
- USA : $32,690,373

China will see a GDP (PPP) that is 26% larger than that of the United States in 2028. In 2015 the United States had a GDP (PPP) that was 2% larger than the Chinese GDP (PPP). China may only have reach less 1/3 or less of it its economic potential. The cumulative growth for China is staggering compared to the United States. Using the IMF estimate China will see a GDP (PPP) per capita at $31,237. Mexico will reach $29,144 the same year. China is becoming wealthier and so prices and salaries will go up along GDP (nominal). As China produce so much - Chinese products and to some extent services are cheap in China. Thus, this has an mitigating effect on GDP (nominal) growth and less so in terms of GDP (PPP). About 1/3 of American GDP growth stem from inflation but they are not becoming so much more productive. China has low inflation and high productivity. This may explain why the diffrences between GDP (nominal) and GDP (PPP) is so sharp in China.

Unlike Tamsen_Ikard and the rest Captain Americas on this forum do not grasp is that China has profound ambitions. These are deeper than leading the United States on IMF spreadsheet. When it come to China one should look at the GDP (PPP) numbers but even the PPP numbers do not reflect how large the chinese economy actually is. I wrote this is the American Economy Thread;

Ships built (in Gross tonnage) in the U.S and China (Mainland) according to UNCTAD;

USA (China in parentheses)

2014: 212,133 (22,851,302)
2015: 355,067 (25,275,424)
2016: 351,092 (22,365,449)
2017: 225,593 (23,682,160)
2018: 201,678 (23,259,789)
2019: 131,415 (23,074,209)
2020: 71,289 (23,257,200) - COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023)
2021: 32,343 (26,863,204)
2022: 72,679 (25,893,611)

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This actually reflect the massive diffrences between the United States and China in terms of (real) economy. The United States use all kind of accounting and finance schemes they can to stay on top on a IMF spreadsheet. There is of course a reason for this. The United States has U.S. dollar and that make it possible for them to borrow an insane amount of money and print as it´s no tomorrow. Without the USD the American GDP (nominal) would be considerable smaller. I do not know but I would guess maybe 20% smaller. Thus, the GDP (nominal) should be slightly larger than that of China.

When it come to high-quality goods. Well, chinese are taking significant steps in this regard. This is in particular true when it come to cars and EV in particular. In 2022 China produced 27,020,615 cars or 32% of all cars produce that year. The United States produced 10,060,339 cars or about 12%. What is worse for the United States is that their ownership share of car brands has been shrinking. The major manufacturers in the United States are; GM, Ford and Stellantis. Stellantis are owned by the Europeans. GM´s Asian market is co-owned with China through SAIC-GM. Ford and Tesla is still American.

The American economy is still stellar in many ways but the United States is a declining country in terms of military, economic, social and cultural power. The United States is also disappearing morally and ethnically. The Wasps that built the United States are today just a small minority and so is their progressive Northeastern "Leitkultur". Soon the generic whites and their violent neo-liberal "Americana" culture will be gone. China will remain intact 50 years from now. The ancient Chinese Civilization will live on. America will be gone. For the chinese that is worth more than all the money in the world.

Contemporary China

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Contemporary United States

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[Biscuits]

Are you seriously comparing India with Germany, the same Germany that steamrolled through Europe with its industrial might? Its so funny. India cannot even produce its own handgun without foreign help. Germany with its mature industry can easily produce every type of planes, tanks and submarines there is and in huge numbers.

Just because Germany deliberately chose to develop a weak military because of their political positions has nothing to do with their economic and industrial power to produce weapons. If they do decide to change their mindset and decide to get rid US vassalism and develop their true military potential, They would easily beat Russia in Weapons production.


But again, GDP is not just about Industrial might. I am talking about overall economic might. The only reason we care about comparing countries with GDP is because of how powerful and important an economy is, not because how cheap haircut is between two countries.

GDP PPP measures how many haircuts and other services each country does in 1 year tries to put equal value in the price that haircut.

But one cannot just put equal value to haircuts in 2 countries. There is a reason a haircut is more expensive in a rich country like Germany or US compared to the likes of India. Its because there are highly developed industries such as chips, biotech or car industry available in the country which attracts most of the labor force. So, this demand for labor creates opportunities for even low skilled labor to attain a high enough price.


If US or Germany has inflation and its currency is still NOT losing value, that means their currency has enough staying power due to exports and investor faith. That is not true for China for example which must battle Investor fear and capital flight with strict capital controls. That is the difference in economic might between China and the US or other rich countries.

You... You do know the modern day Germany is a lot smaller and less developed (relative to it's time period) than WW2 Germany... Right?

Countries lose and gain in power all the time. India today is more useful than Germany in many ways.

Also lol at Germany not losing value. Have you been living under a rock since Feb 2022? The likes of Germany or UK are the prime examples of countries who can't control their own economies and end up facing mass contraction.

We're comparing the size of transactions within 2 countries, and when you do it, you must normalize when there's 2 different currencies with differing inflation in play. It is not a question of preference, but it is something you MUST do to have a result that is comparable.

It is not down to your opinion or not, it is simply impossible to compare without accounting for inflation. The results are nonsense.

Questions of which economy is more "influential" is not the same as which is "bigger". Bigger is objective, and the largest economy is by objective measures China. "influential" is based on many different factors that aren't just objective transaction sizes. You can here argue that US, or perhaps US + EU are more influential or similarly influential as China, but that isn't economy size, and not what we were discussing.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

You... You do know the modern day Germany is a lot smaller and less developed (relative to it's time period) than WW2 Germany... Right?

Countries lose and gain in power all the time. India today is more useful than Germany in many ways.

Also lol at Germany not losing value. Have you been living under a rock since Feb 2022? The likes of Germany or UK are the prime examples of countries who can't control their own economies and end up facing mass contraction.

We're comparing the size of transactions within 2 countries, and when you do it, you must normalize when there's 2 different currencies with differing inflation in play. It is not a question of preference, but it is something you MUST do to have a result that is comparable.

It is not down to your opinion or not, it is simply impossible to compare without accounting for inflation. The results are nonsense.

Questions of which economy is more "influential" is not the same as which is "bigger". Bigger is objective, and the largest economy is by objective measures China. "influential" is based on many different factors that aren't just objective transaction sizes. You can here argue that US, or perhaps US + EU are more influential or similarly influential as China, but that isn't economy size, and not what we were discussing.

Indian economy, as much as I like to dunk on them, isn't all that worse than most 3rd world ex colonial countries. They have the mass and they still can extract enough surplus profit to build a semi successful space program. That's much more than most countries can do.

China is the exception. India is the norm. There have only been 3 cases of low income countries in 1950 becoming high income countries without oil in 2022:

Singapore, South Korea, China. That's it.

Every other high income country was either already developed (US and western Europe) or at least a medium income country (Japan, Latin America and Eastern Europe) in 1950.

Every other country poor in 1950, stayed poor or at most advanced to medium income.

 

[TK3600]

From military perspective

Are you seriously comparing India with Germany, the same Germany that steamrolled through Europe with its industrial might? Its so funny. India cannot even produce its own handgun without foreign help. Germany with its mature industry can easily produce every type of planes, tanks and submarines there is and in huge numbers.

Just because Germany deliberately chose to develop a weak military because of their political positions has nothing to do with their economic and industrial power to produce weapons. If they do decide to change their mindset and decide to get rid US vassalism and develop their true military potential, They would easily beat Russia in Weapons production.


But again, GDP is not just about Industrial might. I am talking about overall economic might. The only reason we care about comparing countries with GDP is because of how powerful and important an economy is, not because how cheap haircut is between two countries.

GDP PPP measures how many haircuts and other services each country does in 1 year tries to put equal value in the price that haircut.

But one cannot just put equal value to haircuts in 2 countries. There is a reason a haircut is more expensive in a rich country like Germany or US compared to the likes of India. Its because there are highly developed industries such as chips, biotech or car industry available in the country which attracts most of the labor force. So, this demand for labor creates opportunities for even low skilled labor to attain a high enough price.


If US or Germany has inflation and its currency is still losing value, that means their currency has enough staying power due to exports and investor faith. That is not true for China for example which must battle Investor fear and capital flight with strict capital controls. That is the difference in economic might between China and the US or other rich countries.

First off, off topics. I will just reply once and call it. As much we make fun of India we must give credit where it is due.

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India has been making small arms on its own. I am sure they can make a hand gun if they feel like it. They do have a bad habit of taking superior foriegn products instead of improve domestic version. That is a separate issue, not that they are incapable.

Now lets talk about Germany. Many of its products are multinational. In the cold war they could do it on their own, but not anymore. Projects like Eurofighters require other nation as partners. If a country like France drop out, they will not be able to complete it. This is the case for most countries.

Now you may want to say "but no, what if they get rid of US?" Sorry that is still not happening. If they do not have the expertise, they need to start from scratch. They also need the money for it. Both of which is not something to gain overnight. Hell, do they even have the energy to sustain current industry let alone expand?

Higher GDP let Germany but foriegn product better, but when it comes to operate and domestic production, PPP matters, and that is where bulk of the cost is. A skilled technician will always cost more in Germany than in India.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

You... You do know the modern day Germany is a lot smaller and less developed (relative to it's time period) than WW2 Germany... Right?

Countries lose and gain in power all the time. India today is more useful than Germany in many ways.

Also lol at Germany not losing value. Have you been living under a rock since Feb 2022? The likes of Germany or UK are the prime examples of countries who can't control their own economies and end up facing mass contraction.

We're comparing the size of transactions within 2 countries, and when you do it, you must normalize when there's 2 different currencies with differing inflation in play. It is not a question of preference, but it is something you MUST do to have a result that is comparable.

It is not down to your opinion or not, it is simply impossible to compare without accounting for inflation. The results are nonsense.

Questions of which economy is more "influential" is not the same as which is "bigger". Bigger is objective, and the largest economy is by objective measures China. "influential" is based on many different factors that aren't just objective transaction sizes. You can here argue that US, or perhaps US + EU are more influential or similarly influential as China, but that isn't economy size, and not what we were discussing.

You... You do know the modern day Germany is a lot smaller and less developed (relative to it's time period) than WW2 Germany... Right?

Countries lose and gain in power all the time. India today is more useful than Germany in many ways.

Also lol at Germany not losing value. Have you been living under a rock since Feb 2022? The likes of Germany or UK are the prime examples of countries who can't control their own economies and end up facing mass contraction.

We're comparing the size of transactions within 2 countries, and when you do it, you must normalize when there's 2 different currencies with differing inflation in play. It is not a question of preference, but it is something you MUST do to have a result that is comparable.

It is not down to your opinion or not, it is simply impossible to compare without accounting for inflation. The results are nonsense.

Questions of which economy is more "influential" is not the same as which is "bigger". Bigger is objective, and the largest economy is by objective measures China. "influential" is based on many different factors that aren't just objective transaction sizes. You can here argue that US, or perhaps US + EU are more influential or similarly influential as China, but that isn't economy size, and not what we were discussing.

Germany with on the cutting edge of Industry like Siemens, Bosch or in software industry like SAP, Or in Biotech BionTech ( MRNA Covid Vaccine) is less useful than India with 50% people still working in Agriculture and no world class company? Hahaha. You live in Fantasy land it seems.

Germany may have declined but it still a huge force in the world of business and industry. To dismiss Germany just because you dislike its recent political or geopolitical decisions is foolish at best.

India has nothing going for it except a huge population for the world to sell to. That's the only reason companies invest there, to sell it more goods. What is India selling to the world?


Again Germany US or the west in general maybe in decline. But that doesn't mean they are not on top of the world. They are still on top. China is gaining massively each year. But its still too weak to fight the west. Its industry is still maturing and moving up the value chain. Its technology is still in catch up mode. Its financial system still not mature enough to open up.

These are the things China itself says about itself. That it still has long ways to go towards economic number 1 position. Using GDP PPP to try to make China number 1 is just boasting or posturing. This is what India does to try to make itself SupaPAWA.

 

[Biscuits]

Germany with on the cutting edge of Industry like Siemens, Bosch or in software industry like SAP, Or in Biotech BionTech ( MRNA Covid Vaccine) is less useful than India with 50% people still working in Agriculture and no world class company? Hahaha. You live in Fantasy land it seems.

Germany may have declined but it still a huge force in the world of business and industry. To dismiss Germany just because you dislike its recent political or geopolitical decisions is foolish at best.

India has nothing going for it except a huge population for the world to sell to. That's the only reason companies invest there, to sell it more goods. What is India selling to the world?


Again Germany US or the west in general maybe in decline. But that doesn't mean they are not on top of the world. They are still on top. China is gaining massively each year. But its still too weak to fight the west. Its industry is still maturing and moving up the value chain. Its technology is still in catch up mode. Its financial system still not mature enough to open up.

I don't think you understand the difference between a third tier power and a first tier one. A single of the largest Chinese provinces or 2 of some smaller ones is similar sized in economy terms as all of Germany. And that province carries within itself similar levels of technology, industry etc.

So if you consider Germany top of the world, then what would you consider China that has literally half a dozen Germanies baked inside it?

Which country produced the largest amount of research in terms of both quality and quantity? Which country leads the world in terms economy size, industrial output and industrial technology? So conventionally speaking, who does that make the top of the world belong to?

China hasn't fought the west directly, but arguments that they think they are too weak to fight the west would have a lot more stock if the west itself wouldn't be too weak to fight the likes of Russia.

These are the things China itself says about itself. That it still has long ways to go towards economic number 1 position. Using GDP PPP to try to make China number 1 is just boasting or posturing. This is what India does to try to make itself SupaPAWA.

You seem to think number 1 = cold war over. Either that or you're shilling US. Being number 1 in economic size (not necessarily influence or any other subjective measure) doesn't equate instantly solving all problems. China still has to work with other economies, some unfriendly ones, which also take up big shares of the global economy. I do not state the fact that China is the largest economy because I believe it means the cold war is over, I state it because we should be truthful about the conditions we're discussing. Otherwise, we throw in garbage and get garbage in return.

We are only using gdp to measure because that's what for example even the CIA factbook does. And among gdp, the only measure that can be used to compare 2 different currencies is gdp normalized for inflation. Anyways, we can use other measures such as energy output, automobile sales, productive capacity etc etc. to measure economy size.

Reiterating hard numbers is no boast or posturing. When discussing things, it is important to have the correct measurments.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I don't think you understand the difference between a third tier power and a first tier one. A single of the largest Chinese provinces or 2 of some smaller ones is similar sized in economy terms as all of Germany. And that province carries within itself similar levels of technology, industry etc.

So if you consider Germany top of the world, then what would you consider China that has literally half a dozen Germanies baked inside it?

Which country produced the largest amount of research in terms of both quality and quantity? Which country leads the world in terms economy size, industrial output and industrial technology? So conventionally speaking, who does that make the top of the world belong to?

China hasn't fought the west directly, but arguments that they think they are too weak to fight the west would have a lot more stock if the west itself wouldn't be too weak to fight the likes of Russia.

You seem to think number 1 = cold war over. Either that or you're shilling US. Being number 1 in economic size (not necessarily influence or any other subjective measure) doesn't equate instantly solving all problems. China still has to work with other economies, some unfriendly ones, which also take up big shares of the global economy. I do not state the fact that China is the largest economy because I believe it means the cold war is over, I state it because we should be truthful about the conditions we're discussing. Otherwise, we throw in garbage and get garbage in return.

We are only using gdp to measure because that's what for example even the CIA factbook does. And among gdp, the only measure that can be used to compare 2 different currencies is gdp normalized for inflation. Anyways, we can use other measures such as energy output, automobile sales, productive capacity etc etc. to measure economy size.

Reiterating hard numbers is no boast or posturing. When discussing things, it is important to have the correct measurments.

I think you and I are talking on two different wavelengths. You are just looking at the PPP dollar value of an economy and totally ignoring the power of an economy in terms of what kind of goods it actually produces or what kind of technological edge it has all over the world.

But I am talking about economic power not just economic size measured by how many haircuts one country does in 1 year.

Yes, Several provinces in China like Shaanxi or Hubei provinces combined may have more GDP than Germany. But what kind of world class companies does those provinces have compared to Germany?

China maybe producing the most steel in the world, but is it all high quality steel used for high tech products or just low quality steel used for steel rods in buildings?

China maybe producing the most cars in the world. But how many of those cars are actually designed in China with a Chinese brand How many of the sensors, chips and other high tech components inside a car are made in China?

Most of China's GDP from manufactuing is still contract manufacturing for foreign brands. That's the fact. A lot of the products made in China are full of foreign high tech components and just the assembly happens in China.

But is it changing? Yes, very fast. China is developing its own brands of cars, TVs, Phones. China is moving up the value chain and producing more of the high quality components.

But it still has ways to go before it catches up to the top of technological ladder. That's the hard numbers I care about. Not the amount of raw steel rods China makes.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Germany with on the cutting edge of Industry like Siemens, Bosch or in software industry like SAP, Or in Biotech BionTech ( MRNA Covid Vaccine) is less useful than India with 50% people still working in Agriculture and no world class company? Hahaha. You live in Fantasy land it seems.

Germany may have declined but it still a huge force in the world of business and industry. To dismiss Germany just because you dislike its recent political or geopolitical decisions is foolish at best.

India has nothing going for it except a huge population for the world to sell to. That's the only reason companies invest there, to sell it more goods. What is India selling to the world?


Again Germany US or the west in general maybe in decline. But that doesn't mean they are not on top of the world. They are still on top. China is gaining massively each year. But its still too weak to fight the west. Its industry is still maturing and moving up the value chain. Its technology is still in catch up mode. Its financial system still not mature enough to open up.

These are the things China itself says about itself. That it still has long ways to go towards economic number 1 position. Using GDP PPP to try to make China number 1 is just boasting or posturing. This is what India does to try to make itself SupaPAWA.

Anyone can write meaningless superlatives like "cutting edge".

If SAP is the leading edge of German software they're in deep shit compared to the likes of Alibaba, Baidu, Huawei and Tencent which produce far more revenue and have far more IP.

Huawei (120k) alone has the same number of patents as Siemens (65k) and Bosch (77k) combined.

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But this isn't the point. If you think nominal GDP tells the whole story, how can you explain the difference in price between industry standard or ISO conforming products between markets? You cannot, and in this situation, the higher priced market would be less efficient (higher price for equal quality) yet have the higher nominal GDP contribution.

 

[gelgoog]

Most of China's GDP from manufactuing is still contract manufacturing for foreign brands. That's the fact. A lot of the products made in China are full of foreign high tech components and just the assembly happens in China.

But is it changing? Yes, very fast. China is developing its own brands of cars, TVs, Phones. China is moving up the value chain and producing more of the high quality components.

I would say that Xiaomi, Oppo, TCL are well known Chinese brands at this point. Other companies like Midea, Hisense, Geely, or BYD are also increasingly well known.

As for Germany it is behind even India in terms of aerospace industry. Most of its aerospace projects are cooperations with other European countries, and if you look closely at the German tech inputs in those projects, they are kind of low tech. And Germany is pretty much down the scale in either computer software or hardware. With only a couple companies in the sector. The most advanced chip foundry in Germany has its origins in East Germany (X-Fab). Siemens has basically vanished from the consumer electronics market.