Chinese Economics Thread

[Quickie]

You need to take out the exports between mainland China (CHN) and Hong Kong (HK) to avoid double counting. Let's do a quick calculation. Hong Kong export and import to/from CHN are from

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.

CHN export: overall X = $3600B, to HK x = $268B
HK export: overall Y = $610B, to CHN y = $350B

Net CHN + HK export = (X - x) + (Y - y) = $3332B + $260B = $3592B ~ 3.6T

So the net effect of adding Hong Kong export is negligible, which makes sense since HK is more of trade intermediary for CHN.

Only a certain percentage of the amount of $268B and $350B are reexported, with the rest locally consumed. The reexported is also normally with added value.

Taking into account this, the Net of both CHN + HK could be much higher.

 

[TK3600]

I think your math makes sense, but if we follow similar logic, European countries total export is vastly over counted. A lot of european countries act as trade intermediaries for each other. That said, it's probably wise to focus on China's exports. The days of HK being China's trade intermediaries is over, it will be less and less relevant in the future.

I was thinking South Korea and Taiwan. China should be like that but scaled up. That is what I expect a matured China be like, if not more.

 

[Minm]

I was thinking South Korea and Taiwan. China should be like that but scaled up. That is what I expect a matured China be like, if not more.

The world isn't big enough for China to export as much as Korea. Large countries will naturally have a lower share of world exports because they have a substantial domestic market, while countries like Korea don't

 

[Maikeru]

In between all the articles about imminent property-linked economic collapse, I found this:

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[escobar]

Much of the reported decline in China’s UST holdings reflects a drop in UST valuations, not sales. China’s UST sales were also offset by china $100B in Agency MBS purchases over the same period

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1709927986256846977

 

[TK3600]

The world isn't big enough for China to export as much as Korea. Large countries will naturally have a lower share of world exports because they have a substantial domestic market, while countries like Korea don't

Just by moving up value chain alone China can get there.

 

[Jamie28]

Much of the reported decline in China’s UST holdings reflects a drop in UST valuations, not sales. China’s UST sales were also offset by china $100B in Agency MBS purchases over the same period

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1709927986256846977

So every MSM is reporting a wrong news and only this Rashad Ahmed noticed it?

 

[Moonscape]

Much of the reported decline in China’s UST holdings reflects a drop in UST valuations, not sales. China’s UST sales were also offset by china $100B in Agency MBS purchases over the same period

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1709927986256846977

This is wrong because china's UST holdings are mostly short-term, and those are less affected by the rise in rates (which tanks the value of longer term bonds)

 

[henrik]

The world isn't big enough for China to export as much as Korea. Large countries will naturally have a lower share of world exports because they have a substantial domestic market, while countries like Korea don't

Korea trade will shrink due to low technology and competitiveness against a rising India.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Korea trade will shrink due to low technology and competitiveness against a rising India.

More like they’ve restored too much to India and the Indian government will cause them to go bankrupt by suing the companies for tax evasion.