Chinese Economics Thread

luosifen

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While China's real economy will do fine, its stock markets will likely stay suppressed for some time to come. Look for future bargain hunting opportunities if you're interested in this sort of stuff.

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2023-10-04 09:36:07China Daily Editor : Li Yan
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The ongoing investigation into China Evergrande Group's founder and the heavily indebted property developer's offshore debt restructuring plan may continue to weigh down market confidence despite its stock price surge on Tuesday as it resumed trading following last week's suspension, analysts said.
The group's shares jumped 42 percent during morning trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The stock closed up 28.1 percent at HK $0.41 ($0.05).
Analysts cautioned against extrapolation from the stock price surge, citing the probe into the suspected illegal activities of Evergrande's founder Xu Jiayin, also known as Hui Ka Yan, and the uncertain prospect of the developer's offshore debt restructuring process as factors that will continue to affect investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, shares of China Evergrande Property Service Group Ltd — a subsidiary of China Evergrande Group — initially rose by as much as 14 percent during morning trading, but experienced a downturn and closed with a dip of over 3 percent.
Trading in shares of the group and its affiliated companies was suspended on Thursday, with the company announcing that Xu, its board chairman and executive director, is subject to mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspected illegal activities.
Guan Rongxue, an analyst with the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center, said that Evergrande's return to trading will probably fall short of allaying investor concerns about the company's debtcrisis due to the investigation and rising challenges facing its debt settlements.
The group's shares saw a brief surge before paring some of the gains, along with the dip in the company's property service unit shares, signaling the still hovering market concerns, Guan said, adding that it is too early to declare that all the bearish factors have vanished.
The debt-laden developer's previous 17-month trading halt was lifted just one month prior to the most recent suspension.
Evergrande — once China's topselling property developer — is struggling with more than 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) in liabilities. Things got further complicated last week after the company said it was unable to issue new debt due to an investigation into the company's flagship subsidiary — Hengda Real Estate Group.
In August, the developer had filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 15 of the United States Bankruptcy Code in New York City. The chapter shields non-US companies that are undergoing restructuring from creditors who hope to sue them or seize their assets in the US.
Yan Yuejin, director of the Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institution, said as a result of the recent setbacks, the likelihood of Evergrande not being able to reach an offshore debt restructuring agreement with its creditors and the risk of its liquidation have increased.
Nonetheless, the active steps of Chinese regulators provide hope for resolving the problem, which will to some extent help safeguard market stability and the interests of home-buyers, Yan added.
 

luminary

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Screenshot_20231004-042342.png
The list is headed by China, with $3.6 trillion or 14% of total exports. The country has been the largest exporter of goods in the world since 2009.

Top 11CountryExports (USD)
1 China$3.6T
2 U.S.$2.1T
3 Germany$1.7T
4 Netherlands$965.5B
5 Japan$746.9B
6 South Korea$683.6B
7 Italy$656.9B
8 Belgium$632.9B
9 France$617.8B
10 Hong Kong$609.9B
11 United Arab Emirates$598.5B

In 2022, the
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exported from China by value were phones (including smartphones), computers, optical readers, integrated circuits, solar power diodes, and semiconductors.
 

siegecrossbow

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View attachment 119617
The list is headed by China, with $3.6 trillion or 14% of total exports. The country has been the largest exporter of goods in the world since 2009.

Top 11CountryExports (USD)
1China$3.6T
2U.S.$2.1T
3Germany$1.7T
4Netherlands$965.5B
5Japan$746.9B
6South Korea$683.6B
7Italy$656.9B
8Belgium$632.9B
9France$617.8B
10Hong Kong$609.9B
11United Arab Emirates$598.5B

In 2022, the
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exported from China by value were phones (including smartphones), computers, optical readers, integrated circuits, solar power diodes, and semiconductors.

Hmm how is UAE so high on the list?
 

weig2000

Captain
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View attachment 119617
The list is headed by China, with $3.6 trillion or 14% of total exports. The country has been the largest exporter of goods in the world since 2009.

Top 11CountryExports (USD)
1China$3.6T
2U.S.$2.1T
3Germany$1.7T
4Netherlands$965.5B
5Japan$746.9B
6South Korea$683.6B
7Italy$656.9B
8Belgium$632.9B
9France$617.8B
10Hong Kong$609.9B
11United Arab Emirates$598.5B

In 2022, the
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exported from China by value were phones (including smartphones), computers, optical readers, integrated circuits, solar power diodes, and semiconductors.

China is in a league of its own. The US and Germany form the next tier. The rest of the countries/economies in the table are closely stuck together at around $600B, with Netherlands being a slight outlier.

US actually hasn't done too poorly, it's just that its import appetite has gone out of control. Germany and South Korea are real export powerhouses, relative to the size of their respective economy. Italy surprisingly exports a lot. Netherlands and Hong Kong are probably mostly transit trades.
 

TK3600

Major
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China is in a league of its own. The US and Germany form the next tier. The rest of the countries/economies in the table are closely stuck together at around $600B, with Netherlands being a slight outlier.

US actually hasn't done too poorly, it's just that its import appetite has gone out of control. Germany and South Korea are real export powerhouses, relative to the size of their respective economy. Italy surprisingly exports a lot. Netherlands and Hong Kong are probably mostly transit trades.
US export is down right pathetic relative to economy size. It is just bit higher than Germany. China is highest, but not at ideal level yet. If China is developed at the same economy size, I expect 4.5T. Good developed export economy should be 25%~ of gdp.
 
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weig2000

Captain
Most of Hong Kong's exports come from China. So it is more like 3.6T + 0,6T = 4.2T which is pretty close to 4.5T.

Are China's exports to Hong Kong part of the $3.6 trillion? If not, that would be wild

You need to take out the exports between mainland China (CHN) and Hong Kong (HK) to avoid double counting. Let's do a quick calculation. Hong Kong export and import to/from CHN are from
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.

CHN export: overall X = $3600B, to HK x = $268B
HK export: overall Y = $610B, to CHN y = $350B

Net CHN + HK export = (X - x) + (Y - y) = $3332B + $260B = $3592B ~ 3.6T

So the net effect of adding Hong Kong export is negligible, which makes sense since HK is more of trade intermediary for CHN.
 

coolgod

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Registered Member
You need to take out the exports between mainland China (CHN) and Hong Kong (HK) to avoid double counting. Let's do a quick calculation. Hong Kong export and import to/from CHN are from
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.

CHN export: overall X = $3600B, to HK x = $268B
HK export: overall Y = $610B, to CHN y = $350B

Net CHN + HK export = (X - x) + (Y - y) = $3332B + $260B = $3592B ~ 3.6T

So the net effect of adding Hong Kong export is negligible, which makes sense since HK is more of trade intermediary for CHN.
I think your math makes sense, but if we follow similar logic, European countries total export is vastly over counted. A lot of european countries act as trade intermediaries for each other. That said, it's probably wise to focus on China's exports. The days of HK being China's trade intermediaries is over, it will be less and less relevant in the future.
 
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