Chinese Economics Thread

[Quan8410]

And China grew by 5.5%. That's despite having a larger economy, so each percentage point is worth more than it'd be for the EU or US economies.

5.5 is 3 percentage points more than US and 5 more than EU. I'm not making some realist, expert prediction here, I'm just telling you that a China that's always 3 percentage points ahead of a flagging west is going to have no issues retaining global power. Your ideas that somehow a 5% growth is terrible for China are unrealistic.

If you wants China surpassing the West, China growth must be more because the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ (even Japan, South Korea also counts). China has more population than the entire block and China should have a larger economy than the entire block, not just US or EU. 5.5% this year is slow. If this rate continue, it will take another 2-3 decades for China to surpass the entire block.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

If you wants China surpassing the West, China growth must be more because the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ (even Japan, South Korea also counts). China has more population than the entire block and China should have a larger economy than the entire block, not just US or EU. 5.5% this year is slow. If this rate continue, it will take another 2-3 decades for China to surpass the entire block.

While the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ+Japan+South Korea is inded larger than China by quite a bit.

But I don't think it's really a case of 1 + 1 > 2 nor even 1 + 1 = 2, yes I think the whole west, as the countries gets 'added together', there's a 1 + 1 is smaller than 2 effect.

China is ONE large rather cohesive country.
While the various states, local governments etc. in China does have some autonomy, along with, ofc, power struggles internally in China. At the end of the day the people inside all recognize themselves belonging to the country China (not to mention the central government in China having strong control over lots of SOEs, including very big and critical ones that have strangleholds over many important sectors).

While 'the West' on the other hand, we have a large collection of many countries, which does center around the US, but the US ability to command and control those countries is weaker and worse than the control the Central government in China has over local chinese governments.
Not to mention control over companies, economy etc. (and 'the West' would also have worse problems when it comes to internal power struggles, both internally in each country but also between the countries, especially as the US is starting to leech off the other countries to try and strengthen itself)

Basically, one's a single big say 1m diameter rock while the other 'rock' might be 1.5m diameter, but it's actually made of multiple pieces, all of different sizes, badly bound together to form that 1.5m diameter rock (and the biggest core rock is at the same time trying to cut off pieces of the smaller rocks, to somehow absorb into itself).

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

While the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ+Japan+South Korea is inded larger than China by quite a bit.

SK will not be in the Western bloc for more than another 1-2 decades, maximum.

 

[Biscuits]

If you wants China surpassing the West, China growth must be more because the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ (even Japan, South Korea also counts). China has more population than the entire block and China should have a larger economy than the entire block, not just US or EU. 5.5% this year is slow. If this rate continue, it will take another 2-3 decades for China to surpass the entire block.

They aren't cohesive though. @Michaelsinodef already explained it very well.

Easiest way to "surpass" the whole west is the Gorbachev strategy. Force Americans to give up on their satellite states, through diplomatic, economical and military pressure.

Just by rendering EU inert and unable to support America, China can already say mission accomplished. Why do you think there's proxy wars and weird stuff going on in the eurozone anyways?

At that same time, China needs to nurture a new captive market, which is what the "global south" is going to become. But these places won't grow at a serious pace until they have adopted CPC theories.

 

[Serb]

If you wants China surpassing the West, China growth must be more because the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ (even Japan, South Korea also counts). China has more population than the entire block and China should have a larger economy than the entire block, not just US or EU. 5.5% this year is slow. If this rate continue, it will take another 2-3 decades for China to surpass the entire block.

Dude, in some economic metrics China is already ahead of the entire West combined, like pure industrial capacity.

 

[In4ser]

China is holding a massive foreign reserves and July foreign reserves is rising even more than expected. And if (with I think is the case) dollar is majority of the reserves then China is holding a massive pile of useless paper because you cannot buy anything from the US while more countries is already open to trade in yuan. Sell a bit of these reserves and the government can provide stimulus without going into too much debt. Holding dollar is a trap.

They have been but you can’t do it all at once without crashing the global market or the value of the USD you are holding. At the end of the day, globalization means mutual interdependence which for better or worse is difficult for both China and America to divorce.

 

[In4ser]

Lol let's not pretend China is anywhere close to recession today. The economy is still booming, people are still spending at a level commensurate with China's no1 status, the domestic markets are bigger than ever, and in many cases (like autos, just as an example), they're actually larger than what the size of the economy would suggest they should be.

There is a saying that you don't need to be fast enough to outrun a bear, only fast enough to outrun the slowest person in your group. China doesn't need and it doesn't even have the ability to grow 10% every year. But it doesn't need to, it just needs to make sure the west is hurting way more, as long as that is true, they won't ever catch up.

Forever 3% growth in China while 0 to -3% in NATO is good enough.

I’m looking forward not today but Q4 or 2024 onwards when the West crashes and the ripples splash everyone in the process. Just because it hurts the West more doesn’t mean it’s gonna be fun for China either.

Broadly speaking, most Chinese born in past 30-40 years have only known a time of economic success and growing opportunities and China will not come out of this financial storm unhurt. This will deeply affect domestic consumption as well as exports.

 

[Quan8410]

Dude, in some economic metrics China is already ahead of the entire West combined, like pure industrial capacity.

Seriouly wtf does Hong Kong produce let alone export today an amount of half the amount of China and double the amount of Germany? These Hong Kong export is just import from China and re-export to other countries. Also the China number is not China alone as many FDI have their goods produced in China (and they take majority of profit, like Apple).

 

[horse]

China is not anywhere close to recession yet but so is the west. EU expanded by 0.3% and US by 2.4%. Your scenario is unrealistic, sorry. Let alone forever 3% growth in China and forever negative growth in the west. You cannot in recession forever, even Japan has growth.

Uh, no.

Ever since Obama, during his reign till now, the US economy rarely grew at 3% per year, which was its historical average.

But that is not the whole story. There is a real question of whether the West economies will flatline for a very long time.

Economic growth is anemic in Europe for a generation or two.

The United States seems to be heading that way themselves.

That is the question, will the United States get its act together and start to be its old self, or will it start to resemble more and more like Europe.

Every passing year, they look more like Europe than the America run by the boomers when they were young.

If you do not believe anything I wrote, just look up that recent story where some credit rating firm cut the rating for US Treasury bonds or something like that. The government said it was an interpretation or some weird thing, haha.

When they cut your credit rating, they do not believe things are going well.

 

[horse]

If you wants China surpassing the West, China growth must be more because the West = US+EU+Australia+NZ (even Japan, South Korea also counts). China has more population than the entire block and China should have a larger economy than the entire block, not just US or EU. 5.5% this year is slow. If this rate continue, it will take another 2-3 decades for China to surpass the entire block.

You have to understanding something, about what the world economy is like.

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China is the biggest driver to the world economy. In other words, there use to be three growth poles, US, Europe, China, like 20 years ago. Now there is one big one, and a lot of smaller growth poles.

In that sense, China is already more powerful economically speaking than the entire West combined. If they combine Japan with them too, China still contributes more growth to the world economy than all those countries combined.

This is not a dick measuring contest.

This game is perpetual.

All the government can really do is put the country into the best position to succeed in the long run.

That was why these US started trade war and tech war are so weird.

One, they will not hurt China in the long, in the short run it may cause a blip. Two, it probably will hurt American interest more.

Doing dumb things usually does not put a country in a better position for the long run.

Look at the policies causing de-industrialization in German today. That is not good for their country.