Chinese Economics Thread

[Biscuits]

World economy is not in recession, maybe for some countries but definitely not all the world. For example, Indonesia just has one of the best Q2 for several years. The world still manage to grow although slower. Recession is when the growth is below zero.

All of China's usual customers are busy losing an economic war on Russia, an economic war that they themselves decided to start, mind you.

Unfortunately, the China aligned are not yet economically powerful enough to replace the west. They can't be looked towards to fully fulfil lost western demand.

Despite being the largest economy by a fair margin, we have as our captive markets only Russia, a Germany sized economy, and after that, nobody of economical note. That is the tragic reality, most of China's allies are much worse developed and can't be counted on to provide economic assistance. The cumulative west, if they can coordinate as one entity (doubtful tho), still have the upper hand in global economy share.

 

[56860]

All of China's usual customers are busy losing an economic war on Russia, an economic war that they themselves decided to start, mind you.

Unfortunately, the China aligned are not yet economically powerful enough to replace the west. They can't be looked towards to fully fulfil lost western demand.

Despite being the largest economy by a fair margin, we have as our captive markets only Russia, a Germany sized economy, and after that, nobody of economical note. That is the tragic reality, most of China's allies are much worse developed and can't be counted on to provide economic assistance. The cumulative west, if they can coordinate as one entity (doubtful tho), still have the upper hand in global economy share.

... asean?

 

[Quan8410]

All of China's usual customers are busy losing an economic war on Russia, an economic war that they themselves decided to start, mind you.

Unfortunately, the China aligned are not yet economically powerful enough to replace the west. They can't be looked towards to fully fulfil lost western demand.

Despite being the largest economy by a fair margin, we have as our captive markets only Russia, a Germany sized economy, and after that, nobody of economical note. That is the tragic reality, most of China's allies are much worse developed and can't be counted on to provide economic assistance. The cumulative west, if they can coordinate as one entity (doubtful tho), still have the upper hand in global economy share.

This war may take years. And as you said, Chinese's allies are mostly jokes. China should be the one who provide economic assistance, not them. BRI is doing exactly that but it will take very long with a lot of hurdles to come through. China biggest advantage is mostly its massive market and if boosted correctly, the additional consumption has the potential to outstrip the entire west.

 

[In4ser]

Problem is Chinese aren’t spending money, opting to save as many suffered heavily with the housing bust, worsening jobs market (from declining exports) and older demographic consumer habits akin to Japan’s 1990’s liquidity trap. Moreover the government is hesitant to follow the American debt based model of massive stimulus and lower interest rates to prop the economy…so I think these headwinds are going to be something we’ll have to wait and see.

Hopefully, it will be a short recession but I fear we’re only seeing the beginning of a global recession or even a depression as China tends to be more of a leading indicator for the West’s collapsing consumer demand from their own internal issues.

 

[Quan8410]

Problem is Chinese aren’t spending money, opting to save as many suffered heavily with the housing bust, worsening jobs market (from declining exports) and older demographic consumer habits akin to Japan’s 1990’s liquidity trap. Moreover the government is hesitant to follow the American debt based model of massive stimulus and lower interest rates to prop the economy…so I think these headwinds are going to be something we’ll have to wait and see.

Hopefully, it will be a short recession but I fear we’re only seeing the beginning of a global recession or even a depression as China tends to be more of a leading indicator for the West’s collapsing consumer demand from their own internal issues.

China is holding a massive foreign reserves and July foreign reserves is rising even more than expected. And if (with I think is the case) dollar is majority of the reserves then China is holding a massive pile of useless paper because you cannot buy anything from the US while more countries is already open to trade in yuan. Sell a bit of these reserves and the government can provide stimulus without going into too much debt. Holding dollar is a trap.

 

[Biscuits]

Problem is Chinese aren’t spending money, opting to save as many suffered heavily with the housing bust, worsening jobs market (from declining exports) and older demographic consumer habits akin to Japan’s 1990’s liquidity trap. Moreover the government is hesitant to follow the American debt based model of massive stimulus and lower interest rates to prop the economy…so I think these headwinds are going to be something we’ll have to wait and see.

Hopefully, it will be a short recession but I fear we’re only seeing the beginning of a global recession or even a depression as China tends to be more of a leading indicator for the West’s collapsing consumer demand from their own internal issues.

Lol let's not pretend China is anywhere close to recession today. The economy is still booming, people are still spending at a level commensurate with China's no1 status, the domestic markets are bigger than ever, and in many cases (like autos, just as an example), they're actually larger than what the size of the economy would suggest they should be.

There is a saying that you don't need to be fast enough to outrun a bear, only fast enough to outrun the slowest person in your group. China doesn't need and it doesn't even have the ability to grow 10% every year. But it doesn't need to, it just needs to make sure the west is hurting way more, as long as that is true, they won't ever catch up.

Forever 3% growth in China while 0 to -3% in NATO is good enough.

 

[Serb]

Lol let's not pretend China is anywhere close to recession today. The economy is still booming, people are still spending at a level commensurate with China's no1 status, the domestic markets are bigger than ever, and in many cases (like autos, just as an example), they're actually larger than what the size of the economy would suggest they should be.

There is a saying that you don't need to be fast enough to outrun a bear, only fast enough to outrun the slowest person in your group. China doesn't need and it doesn't even have the ability to grow 10% every year. But it doesn't need to, it just needs to make sure the west is hurting way more, as long as that is true, they won't ever catch up.

Forever 3% growth in China while 0 to -3% in NATO is good enough.

China is consciously focusing its economy on manufacturing, as opposed to services and consumption, like the US, because services aren't that important.

Manufacturing is way more important for national security, especially regarding military-industrial power in a case of war + it is especially important in this Industry 4.0 era where the one country who gets to control it will literally start producing anything for cheap and control the world.

Services are second in line after manufacturing and exports because, without money made from that, there is no money for internal services and consumption. China is not like the US and partially EU yet where its currency is so sought after outside that its gov. and CB could print and then reroute it to its people to spend internally without it losing value and the country going into hyperinflation. That time might come, but not yet.

 

[Quan8410]

Lol let's not pretend China is anywhere close to recession today. The economy is still booming, people are still spending at a level commensurate with China's no1 status, the domestic markets are bigger than ever, and in many cases (like autos, just as an example), they're actually larger than what the size of the economy would suggest they should be.

There is a saying that you don't need to be fast enough to outrun a bear, only fast enough to outrun the slowest person in your group. China doesn't need and it doesn't even have the ability to grow 10% every year. But it doesn't need to, it just needs to make sure the west is hurting way more, as long as that is true, they won't ever catch up.

Forever 3% growth in China while 0 to -3% in NATO is good enough.

China is not anywhere close to recession yet but so is the west. EU expanded by 0.3% and US by 2.4%. Your scenario is unrealistic, sorry. Let alone forever 3% growth in China and forever negative growth in the west. You cannot in recession forever, even Japan has growth.

 

[Biscuits]

China is consciously focusing its economy on manufacturing, as opposed to services and consumption, like the US, because services aren't that important.

Manufacturing is way more important for national security, especially regarding military-industrial power in a case of war + it is especially important in this Industry 4.0 era where the one country who gets to control it will literally start producing anything for cheap and control the world.

Services are second in line after manufacturing and exports because, without money made from that, there is no money for internal services and consumption. China is not like the US and partially EU yet where its currency is so sought after outside that its gov. and CB could print and then reroute it to its people to spend internally without it losing value and the country going into hyperinflation. That time might come, but not yet.

If you boil it down to the most core level, the means of production is the sole factor of national power. Everything else, even currency, is merely in the service of retaining the means of production.

China is not anywhere close to recession yet but so is the west. EU expanded by 0.3% and US by 2.4%. Your scenario is unrealistic, sorry. Let alone forever 3% growth in China and forever negative growth in the west. You cannot in recession forever, even Japan has growth.

And China grew by 5.5%. That's despite having a larger economy, so each percentage point is worth more than it'd be for the EU or US economies.

5.5 is 3 percentage points more than US and 5 more than EU. I'm not making some realist, expert prediction here, I'm just telling you that a China that's always 3 percentage points ahead of a flagging west is going to have no issues retaining global power. Your ideas that somehow a 5% growth is terrible for China are unrealistic.

 

[Overbom]

Too much doom talk for the exports.

How about checking this out for a plausible explanation instead of jumping straight to simplistic answers:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688883084513452033