South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan all have a large drop in exports. For Vietnam and China, the slump would probably end sooner as the Christmas season restocking should begin soon. South Korea and Vietnam might need more time to recover due to the pricing pressure for semiconductor products, chemical and China's massive expansion of capacity on both semiconductor and checmical.
Chinese Economics Thread
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1. China is no longer an export dependent economy anymore, not for a very long time.
2. The world economy may be slowing, which means exports should go down, as the article said.
3. China in that period, still show an unexpected trade balance that increased from the prior month. The reason for that was that imports were down.
4. Why were imports into China down? Could it be China is contracting economically? At 5% growth, well, that means 5% growth. Could it be import substitution going on?
5. There is a stated policy of the CCP for dual circulation, internal demand, and external trade preferably with the partners in the global south.
6. The facts laid out in the article probably are completely true. The reasons though, it could be entirely different.
7. So all in all, the facts are correct, the interpretation could be all disinformation, not like Gordon Chang disciples have never done that before. Praise our comrade! He has done great work!
Disposable income per capita in H1, Top 10 Chinese regions with highest disposable income in H1
A total of nine regions outperformed the national average 19,672
No 10 Liaoning province (19,371 yuan)
No 9 Chongqing (19,920 yuan)
No 8 Shandong province (20,309 yuan)
No 7 Fujian province (23,809 yuan)
No 6 Guangdong province (25,956 yuan)
No 5 Tianjin (26,655 yuan)
No 4 Jiangsu province (27,795 yuan)
No 3 Zhejiang province (34,317 yuan)
No 2 Beijing (41,358 yuan)
No 1 Shanghai (42,870 yuan)
We can see that per capita disposable income is a bit different from the per capita gdp
regardless of how you look at it, the foreign demand is weak. And more than that, a lot of decline is due to lower prices.
They need to boost domestic consumption so that there isn't so many chinese companies kiling each other with price cuts.
They need to boost domestic consumption so that there isn't so many chinese companies kiling each other with price cuts.
I think the government knows that . The problem is how do they do this ?
World economy is in recession. China is not the only country who’s exports are declining. China should boost investment especially in infrastructure.
A couple of additional things to note:1. China is no longer an export dependent economy anymore, not for a very long time.
2. The world economy may be slowing, which means exports should go down, as the article said.
3. China in that period, still show an unexpected trade balance that increased from the prior month. The reason for that was that imports were down.
4. Why were imports into China down? Could it be China is contracting economically? At 5% growth, well, that means 5% growth. Could it be import substitution going on?
5. There is a stated policy of the CCP for dual circulation, internal demand, and external trade preferably with the partners in the global south.
6. The facts laid out in the article probably are completely true. The reasons though, it could be entirely different.
7. So all in all, the facts are correct, the interpretation could be all disinformation, not like Gordon Chang disciples have never done that before. Praise our comrade! He has done great work!
- The 14.5% YoY decrease is in USD terms. RMB depreciated against the USD by ~7.5% from July 2022 to July 2023. Thus, in RMB terms, China's July exports fell ~7% YoY.
- China has had very robust export growth over the last few years. YoY export growth (in USD terms) for the month of July were +18.0% in 2022, +19.3% in 2021, and +7.2% in 2020 (first year of the pandemic). So China's July 2023 exports are up 29% compared to pre-pandemic July 2019 levels in USD terms, which compares very favorably to most countries' export growth numbers over the last 4 years.
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Chinese infrastructure is already quite good. In fact the Chinese public transport system is better than most if not all western nations. The main reasons for China's economic slowdown has to do with the crackdown on real estate and the problems with local government finances that are associated with it.
It will be a big mistake for China to prop up the real estate sector and do more public works that will just throw good money after bad. What China need to do is to allow the economy to adjust to the new reality. And that means short term pain for long term gains.
China has been more prudent in its public finances compared to the West and has invested in infrastructure and industrial projects that will generate future growth and income. Combined that with higher savings rate and trade surpluses over decades means that China has avoided massive monetary easing like in the West especially after 2008. That is why today China has both lower inflation and interest rates than the Western countries.
World economy is not in recession, maybe for some countries but definitely not all the world. For example, Indonesia just has one of the best Q2 for several years. The world still manage to grow although slower. Recession is when the growth is below zero.