So tell me, the government should just free float the RMB? And it will gap up to 5:1 vs. the USD right?
Right?
Right?
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
So tell me, the government should just free float the RMB? And it will gap up to 5:1 vs. the USD right?
Right?
Right?
I'm trying to educate you on how the economy actually works. As I've made clear before my career is a bet on the Chinese economy.
If you are so convinced on the RMB, put up your money and change your cash to RMB, or shut up.
Ray Dalio, Elon Musk and Warren Buffett bet on China. They're billionaires.
Kyle Bass bet against China starting in 2015. His Hayman fund lost 70% of its value from 2015-2019. His worst year (up to that point) was 2017 when he suffered 19% loss due to RMB appreciation.
He did not learn his lesson. He bet against China again. He lost 95% of his money.
Not really sure why you think me or other forum members here don't own significant asset in RMB? You're just making a fool out of yourself in this thread.
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Beside those Chinese American scientists that fled the US for fearing political prosecution, many Chinese Americans have gone back to China to setup Yuan bank accounts in both HK and China to prepare for the worst case scenario.
It is a two way street. The grass is always greener on the other side. Many people in China try to get out and diversify their assets to other countries such as Singapore or Dubai due to the perceive of neutral of these countries. It is not just Chinese but also Indians. Many of them would love investing in the US, Australia, UK and Canada but is afraid of the risk. What China do or not do won't change these people.
More over, a recent attempts by those Chinese crossing the Mexico border to the US also show the same thinking. But these people are even more detached from reality. That's why many people after working at restaurant for washing dishes, delivering foods, or doing manual labors were forced to flee the US and went back to China.
30 years ago or even 20 years, for average Chinese that are hardworking, it might be a good idea to leave China and pursue a better future in the Western countries. That isn't the case anymore especially those youngsters in China aren't the previous generation of older Chinese that are willing to tolerate hard work and has much better work ethics.
Okay? How does this change any of the problems that China have today? You've not answered my question about whether you believe that 20% youth unemployment is superior to 10%. Do enlighten us all. I've bet on China
Do you have significant holdings in RMB?
How f***ing difficult is it for you to understand that 1) China has a lot of opportunities and 2) China has a lot of problems can both be true?
The status of this conversation is that whenever someone reasonable raises #2 - you attack them with #1.
I'm sorry forum members here don't always publicize the currency and jurisdiction of their personal assets.
If non sequiturs didn't work before, straw-manning also won't work. Please try the next item on your bad faith arguments book.
20% youth unemployment by itself doesn't look good but it is coupled with fast growing tertiary and post tertiary enrollment, the fact that graduates of post tertiary education and some tertiary education won't be youth anymore, and the fact that total unemployment isn't going up the way youth unemployment is.
Since the total unemployment rate isn't going up, while tertiary and post tertiary enrollment expands, it suggests that the Chinese economy demands more skilled workers and not just sweatshop laborers, fast food cashiers, etc.
If that were not the case, then tertiary education only delays unemployment and total unemployment would be rising as well.
At least with Kyle Bass the frothing at the mouth hatred of the PRC is understandable. If I lost that much money hedging against something I’d hate it’s guts too.
It is just a short term problem. As more and more Chinese retired and the number of college graduates start to decline, the youth unemployment would go away. We are at the peak of new college graduates as colleges enroll nearly everyone possible. And at the same time, only a few years away from massive retirement from those born in the 60s and 70s.