Chinese Economics Thread

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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ZeEa5KPul

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Yes, technology is great but its an end to a means, not an end all. Same applies to GDP growth. What matters is improving the quality of life and standard of living for the greatest number of Chinese possible. Not everyone can be a great scientist / engineer, but should still be able to enjoy a productive and prosperous life.
It all boils down to technology. Improving quality of life is only possible through improving technology - more access to energy, better material conditions, better medicine, etc. are just synonyms for better technology. The only thing that separates us from cavemen is technology.

Also, of course not everyone needs to be a scientist or engineer. Society needs doctors, designers, farmers, soldiers, even lawyers. But it is the work of scientists and engineers that propels society forward and is the foundation for everything else.
 

Strangelove

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China's lithium reserves go up in 2022


CFP



China recorded a 57-percent year-on-year increase in its lithium reserves in 2022, said an official of the Ministry of Natural Resources at a press conference on Wednesday.

According to the statistics of national mineral resource reserves in 2022 released at the conference, nearly 40 percent of the 163 identified mineral reserves increased.

In 2022, the remaining technically recoverable reserves of oil and gas all increased, with oil up 3.2 percent year on year; natural gas up 3.6 percent year on year and shale gas up 3 percent year on year.

"The newly increased natural gas reserves of six oil-gas fields reached the large size standard, which are the Tianfu gas field and Penglai gas field in the Sichuan Basin, Sulige gas field and Qingshimao gas field in the Ordos Basin, Shunbei oil-gas field in the Tarim Basin and Baodao 21-1 gas field in the Qiongdongnan Basin," said Bo Zhiping, head of the mineral resources protection and supervision department under the Ministry of Natural Resources.

Reserves of emerging minerals of strategic significance like lithium, cobalt and nickel expanded 57 percent, 14.5 percent and 3 percent respectively in 2022.

"China is rich in variety of lithium reserves, including salt lake lithium brine, spodumene and lepidolite, which are mainly distributed in the four provincial-level regions of Jiangxi, Qinghai, Sichuan and Tibet, with a small amount in Henan and Xinjiang. China's lithium reserves increased 57 percent year on year according to the 2022 annual statistics," said Bo.

Usually referred to as "white oil," lithium is widely used in energy storage, chemical engineering, pharmaceutics, metallurgy and electronics. It is playing a growing role in the green, low-carbon shift of the economy and the development of new energy vehicles.
 

abenomics12345

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It's not true, the USSR was horrifically bad at diffusing technology. It repeatedly was the first to invent an industrial technology, or among the first to use it, and the last to roll it out in any meaningful scale. It only excelled in areas with little civilian application like rockets or marine nuclear technology, or in those where the civilian and military applications were very similar, like aerospace. In others it struggled because it just couldn't get the technology out to most factories. This was an issue with complicated political causes that were ultimately about the structure of the USSRs planning bureaucracy. I know of a paper with empirical data on Soviet technology diffusion and will post a link when I find it.

Exactly. 0-1 and 1-100 are not the same.

there's also the skyrocketing enrollment in tertiary and post-tertiary education to train next generation of elite scientists and engineers.

Nobody said that isn't true. The problem at hand is that ~21% of youth do not have jobs. "having a lot of elite scientists and engineers" does not negate the fact that 21% of youth do not have jobs. Is your argument is that "20% youth unemployment is preferential to 10% youth unemployment"?

STEM wages are dictated by market. If anything, access to higher quality engineers/scientists for much less cost is one of China's primary competitive advantages. The fact that wages are so highly inflated in certain STEM fields in the US indicate a shortfall of STEM talent.

Having an oversupply of STEM engineers (or to reframe the problem, an undersupply of STEM jobs resulting from them not making products that consumers want) driving DIDI/delivering Meituan is just as bad as having a shortage of STEM talent. This was a key problem in the early reform/opening up process and a problem that SOEs had to deal with. Product market fit > technically cool shit.

If anything, that's much more of a problem in America where the best and brightest are siphoned off into parasitic fields like finance which create no value. Being a scientist or engineer there is half a step above failure and your career is considered socially mediocre at best. This is ultimately the reason why America's industrial economy is eviscerated and why the Pentagon pays $1,400 for coffee cups.

You are preaching to the converted in terms of the problem in the US. But - your perspective is not that of the entire Chinese nation. The average person in China sees RMB depreciating vs. the USD. Therefore, in their eyes, the USD is more valuable than RMB - you can ackshually all you want, but the average Chinese person does not see it this way. You can gripe about how they're not educated, or unaware, but 'crying abt it' doesn't change their perceptions.

This is the crux of our disagreement. You consider money to be the driving force of an economy while I consider it secondary.

No, the crux of the difference is that I consider BOTH equally important. As an organization, you can invest all you want to make the best technology that becomes best in the world in 20 years but if you go bankrupt in the meanwhile, then your strategy is by definition a failure. Success means balancing the long term and short term.

Chinese people do not live off of patriotism, they will go wherever they are paid the most for their services for any given unit of work, adjusted by other factors (such as the risk of getting shot or carjacked in the US vs. the risk of getting hauled into detention for using Twitter/Instagram). That *you* have a set of preferences does not mean *others* will have the same preferences. This is why STEM engineers left the country in the 1990s through the 2000s, and why a repatriation of a lot of STEM talent today is happening.

Is it not actually a good thing for consumption that real estate collapse in value? People are only afraid to have kids, afraid to spend because they are spending a significant chunk of their lives saving for a house deposit, nobody would save money and be more willing to spend if housing wasn't so ridiculously expensive that it basically needs funding from 6 people (partners and their parents) for the average Joe to be achievable.

It is a good thing, but having 30% of your economy implode 25% in 1 year is significantly contractionary enough by itself, but this happened *while* COVID controls were on full blast. So not only have housing prices collapsed, but incomes have been impacted and critically, *income expectations*, have collapsed. (This is why the government went on a spree calling for "稳预期" and "信心就是黄金" - they're not doing that because they think there's a lot of it around).

People are not going to buy real estate unless they feel secure about their future career prospects because it is a 20-30 year mortgage that they're signing up to. Also, why buy when prices are dropping and that expectations are that it will continue to drop?

And this is how you have the risk of a 25% correction in real estate continue to ratchet down into an uncontrolled implosion.
 

coolgod

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The average person in China sees RMB depreciating vs. the USD. Therefore, in their eyes, the USD is more valuable than RMB - you can ackshually all you want, but the average Chinese person does not see it this way. You can gripe about how they're not educated, or unaware, but 'crying abt it' doesn't change their perceptions.
公知 and their Dunning–Kruger effect, thinks the majority of Chinese people doesn't know how to pull up a long term FX chart.
 

abenomics12345

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公知 and their Dunning–Kruger effect, thinks the majority of Chinese people doesn't know how to pull up a long term FX chart.
That is an argument that would've been relevant before all the 公知 types got cancelled.

There were 50 family offices in Singapore in 2018, and there are now 1500 today. Majority of them are Chinese.

FYI, I fully understand and agree with the undervaluation of the RMB argument - but me understanding/agreeing with it doesn't mean that others will share my views, or that it will actually happen.
 

coolgod

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That is an argument that would've been relevant before all the 公知 types got cancelled.

Is that why you're posting this stuff here instead of on the Chinese internet?

There were 50 family offices in Singapore in 2018, and there are now 1500 today. Majority of them are Chinese.
There were 120 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Singapore in 2016, and there are now 7,961 today. Majority of them are Chinese.

You're not the only one who knows how to write non sequiturs.
 
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abenomics12345

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There were 120 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Singapore in 2016, and now there are 7,961 today. Majority of them are Chinese.

You're not the only one who knows how to write non sequiturs.
Consumers don't give a rats ass about where they buy their cars as long as its good. Just like how capital doesn't give a rats ass about what nation it is in as long as it generates returns. Thank you for proving my point.
 

coolgod

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Consumers don't give a rats ass about where they buy their cars as long as its good. Just like how capital doesn't give a rats ass about what nation it is in as long as it is treated well. Thank you for proving my point.
"Increase in the number of registered family offices in a Chinese speaking tax haven over the past five years must imply Chinese people can't read FX charts and are therefore moving money out of China due to their perception of Yuan devaluation."

Surely there can't possibly be other reasons which justifies the increase in the number of registered family offices.

Forcing 公知 to 内卷 on the western internet was a great move.
 
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