Chinese Economics Thread

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Above, they say it like it is a bad thing.

On other sites, I see terms like 爆雷 talking about South Korean and Vietnamese residential property markets, implying it is bad for them.

But, as a man on the street, constantly rising home prices means more and more people get priced out, seeing as such increases usually outpace wage growth, and can't be good for society as a whole.

So is it received political-economic wisdom that says always rising home prices are good for an economy as a whole although usually bad for individuals?
GDP coming out of increased house prices/sales (see UK) is fake gdp and is actually harmful for the national comprehensive power of a country.

However, real estate stimulus might be needed because the sales collapse has been way too much, and way too fast, which affects the economy a lot in the short term
 

Hitomi

Junior Member
Registered Member
Youth unemployment also rose again to hit 21%. Looks like its going to be a belt tightening year. Its a fact that bragging about geopolitical chess moves or military tech is never a wise thing when your house is not in order, and the harsh truth is that China's ain't for the time being.
Curious but where did you get this number? I didn't open the Bloomberg article.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Curious but where did you get this number? I didn't open the Bloomberg article.
New data has been released
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China’s private sector struggles as economic growth falters in May, youth unemployment hits new high​

  • Fixed-asset investment from private business fell by 0.1 per cent in the first five months of the year, while industrial output grew by only 0.7 per cent last month
  • Jobless rate for the 16-24 age group also hit a record high last month, while retail sales and industrial production fell short of expectations
And the jobless rate for the 16-24 age group hit a new high of 20.8 per cent in May, up from 20.4 per cent in April, despite the overall urban surveyed jobless rate remaining unchanged from April at 5.2 per cent last month.
“All the data points so far send consistent signals that the economic momentum is weakening,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Care to elaborate on this part?
sure. youth unemployment is defined as unemployment in the range 15-24.

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The youth unemployment rate is the number of unemployed 15-24 year-olds expressed as a percentage of the youth labour force. Unemployed people are those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks.

youth unemployment in China is indeed high, but just like in European countries, youth can instead use this opportunity to pursue their dreams and interests.

Most Chinese parents do not want their kids to work as high school dropouts in factories, coal mines or fast food restaurants. They would rather they stay at home retaking the gaokao or going to graduate school.

or, they just live off their parents and become influencers, streamers, pro gamers, etc. China's economy is at the point where not everyone has to start working and struggling to survive the minute they turn 15/18 or risk starving to death/becoming homeless like in some countries.

Is there any data to back this assumption?

college enrollment:
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graduate school enrollment:
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.

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influencer economy:
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These people may say they want a job, but the data shows that they're also willing to 'settle' for merely pursuing higher education and a digital celebrity lifestyle. All the other countries with 'high' youth unemployment like Sweden, France, Italy and Greece are famous for their low stress low pressure lifestyles that are the envy of the entire world. People would risk their lives and swim across oceans for even a 1% chance at their lifestyle.

Meanwhile this is what happens in economies with 'low' youth unemployment.

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Like, average people do not live off of technology improvement
They absolutely do. They literally live off of technology improvement, the Earth could not sustain as many people as it does without a long chain of technological improvement starting with chemical fertilizers. It doesn't get more stark than that.

This is the crux of our disagreement. You consider money to be the driving force of an economy while I consider it secondary. It's just a mechanism of distribution (a very unjust and inefficient one, but that's neither here nor there). What drives an economy is technology and the hands and minds that create it.
STEM grads don't mean much unless they are paid appropriate wages to actually do STEM work.
I have a problem parsing this sentence. "Appropriate wages" are socially constructed and have to do with the level of wealth of a country. Chinese scientists did STEM work decades ago when they commuted on bicycles, and they do it today when they drive BYDs.

If anything, that's much more of a problem in America where the best and brightest are siphoned off into parasitic fields like finance which create no value. Being a scientist or engineer there is half a step above failure and your career is considered socially mediocre at best. This is ultimately the reason why America's industrial economy is eviscerated and why the Pentagon pays $1,400 for coffee cups.

Chinese kids want to be astronauts and American kids want to be social media influencers. That has nothing to do with "appropriate wages", that has to do with superior and inferior cultures.
'Scaling technology' is not a function of just capacity to 'make' things - but also a capacity for there to be *demand* for things.
There's no such thing as abstract "demand." What's called demand is just a mechanism for distributing supply, it's not a concept with an independent existence. Supply is what creates demand.
Real estate at 20-30% of GDP was an immense driver of the two things you mentioned in the past.
A pathological state of affairs that is long overdue for a correction, the Chinese people have to be more imaginative with their money than blowing up housing bubbles. One of the best tools to correct this economic aberration and increase the government's revenue is a property tax. The housing market becomes rational, and the government has the resources to raise defense spending to 3-4% of GDP. Win-win.
So no, ironically, focusing on technology without focusing on commercialization is how you end up making things that people don't want.
What people want is socially constructed. To put it very bluntly, people want what they are told to want. And people shouldn't have everything they want because if they do, the result is America. I don't want China to be an nation of entitled TikTok twerkers and opioid addicts.

The Chinese government is very focused on commercialization. Everybody wants electricity and to not choke on coal fumes, so there's a drive to commercialize clean energy. Everybody wants a car, so there's a drive to commercialize EVs. Everybody wants electronics, so there's a drive to commercialize semiconductor tools.

There's enormous scope for entrepreneurship within the bounds the government has set. If some investors are too stupid to do anything except invest in real estate and e-commerce, that's their problem. They'll be wiped out and more intelligent investors will take their place and make their fortunes by strengthening China.
The USSR was amazing at generating technology and scaling technology too - they are necessary but not sufficient for a diversified/strong economy.
No, it wasn't. The Soviet Union's economy was crippled from the start and it failed precisely because it didn't generate and scale technology sufficiently. It had pockets of excellence like rocketry and nuclear energy, but it was a failure overall.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
They absolutely do. They literally live off of technology improvement, the Earth could not sustain as many people as it does without a long chain of technological improvement starting with chemical fertilizers. It doesn't get more stark than that.

This is the crux of our disagreement. You consider money to be the driving force of an economy while I consider it secondary. It's just a mechanism of distribution (a very unjust and inefficient one, but that's neither here nor there). What drives an economy is technology and the hands and minds that create it.

I have a problem parsing this sentence. "Appropriate wages" are socially constructed and have to do with the level of wealth of a country. Chinese scientists did STEM work decades ago when they commuted on bicycles, and they do it today when they drive BYDs.

If anything, that's much more of a problem in America where the best and brightest are siphoned off into parasitic fields like finance which create no value. Being a scientist or engineer there is half a step above failure and your career is considered socially mediocre at best. This is ultimately the reason why America's industrial economy is eviscerated and why the Pentagon pays $1,400 for coffee cups.

Chinese kids want to be astronauts and American kids want to be social media influencers. That has nothing to do with "appropriate wages", that has to do with superior and inferior cultures.

There's no such thing as abstract "demand." What's called demand is just a mechanism for distributing supply, it's not a concept with an independent existence. Supply is what creates demand.

A pathological state of affairs that is long overdue for a correction. The Chinese people have to be more imaginative with their money than blowing up housing bubbles. One of the best tools to correct this economic aberration and increase the government's revenue is a property tax. The housing market becomes rational, and the government has the resources to raise defense spending to 3-4% of GDP. Win-win.

What people want is socially constructed. To put it very bluntly, people want what they are told to want. And people shouldn't have everything they want because if they do, the result is America. I don't want China to be an nation of entitled TikTok twerkers and opioid addicts.

The Chinese government is very focused on commercialization. Everybody wants electricity and to not choke on coal fumes, so there's a drive to commercialize clean energy. Everybody wants a car, so there's a drive to commercialize EVs. Everybody wants electronics, so there's a drive to commercialize semiconductor tools.

There's enormous scope for entrepreneurship within the bounds the government has set. If some investors are too stupid to do anything except invest in real estate and e-commerce, that's their problem. They'll be wiped out and more intelligent investors will take their place and make their fortunes by strengthening China.

No, it wasn't. The Soviet Union's economy was crippled from the start and it failed precisely because it didn't generate and scale technology sufficiently. It had pockets of excellence like rocketry and nuclear energy, but it was a failure overall.
I have to disagree with just 1 thing: Social media influencers are at least harmless entertainers. Apparently their kids now aspire to actively harmful jobs:
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, propagandists and
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.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I have to disagree with just 1 thing: Social media influencers are at least harmless entertainers. Apparently their kids now aspire to actively harmful jobs:
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, propagandists and
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.
Sure, there are worse things to want to be than a social media influencer. But social media influencers do not make a nation great, scientists and engineers do.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
This is the crux of our disagreement. You consider money to be the driving force of an economy while I consider it secondary. It's just a mechanism of distribution (a very unjust and inefficient one, but that's neither here nor there). What drives an economy is technology and the hands and minds that create it.

Well actually, both of yous should be correct.

In the very long run, better technology improves productivity which translates into better economic growth rates and national wealth.

However in the short run, what moves the economy usually is the credit cycle, aka money.

Of course, in the long run we are all dead, as Keynes famously said.

:D
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
The USSR was amazing at generating technology and scaling technology too - they are necessary but not sufficient for a diversified/strong economy.
Not sure if serious. The USSR had amazing technology in those few areas their command-led apparatus invested autistic amounts into. In other areas, like commercial products, the USSR was backwards compared to the west because of a lack of private sector. At no point were USSR products competitive on the international market.
 
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