Chinese Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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The Brazilian Government has just announced that it has finalized 15 bilateral trade agreements with China, valuing R$50 billion (69 billion RMB) including a satellite manufacturing partnership..
it is becoming more urgent that Brazil achieves some sort of independent strategic assurance to prevent certain regional rivals from destroying its hard earned progress.
so this is the level of current Chinese solar market dominance. Keep in mind that some of that other capacity for cell and modules are simply chinese companies setting up in other countries. So in terms of tech, China has this entire supply chain covered.

I've often talked about to not focus too much on semiconductor and this is part of the reason. China has a good chance of completely controlling wind power and hydrogen supply chain in the next 10 years. Same with shipbuilding, EVs, batteries and others.
Solar is also directly related to semiconductor. You can't help but get good at semiconductor equipment when there's a huge solar market build out as the cleaning, etch, deposition, wafer dicing, etc is so similar. The biggest difference is the prominence of lithography.

Once you have a strong basis in solar you can easily climb to equipment for higher production nodes (>350 nm for power electronics and simple analog) which brings you to climbing all the way to 130 nm with simple die shrinks. And that's good enough for even TVs.
 

luosifen

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it is becoming more urgent that Brazil achieves some sort of independent strategic assurance to prevent certain regional rivals from destroying its hard earned progress.

Solar is also directly related to semiconductor. You can't help but get good at semiconductor equipment when there's a huge solar market build out as the cleaning, etch, deposition, wafer dicing, etc is so similar. The biggest difference is the prominence of lithography.

Once you have a strong basis in solar you can easily climb to equipment for higher production nodes (>350 nm for power electronics and simple analog) which brings you to climbing all the way to 130 nm with simple die shrinks. And that's good enough for even TVs.
J-10C, 052DE, Chinese combined arms brigade export packages to Brazil when? :)
 

luminary

Senior Member
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Fron the de-dollarization thread:
This is less about excess profit than useless currency you get. Hard to colonize Mars with Zimbabwe dollar. There are endless amount of things to develop with own money, but useless foreign money remain useless.

I am convinced in the future a mix of global governance and soft imperialism is needed because the alternative is historical isolationism. If it means to die a slow death of bliss then I rather China go down the path of pain to bring the world together. There will be trade friendly states and unfriendly states. Perhaps China could invest in the friendly states with some losses to gain geopolitical advantage to rid of unfriendly states. If say country X refuse to offer anything valuable to trade and only create local conflict, China can build up country around it and pressure the hostile nation. First diplomacy and trade, ultimately by hard power if necessary. China could also accept nations into unions like Mongolia in exchange for greater investment. Ultimately China can bring humans all toward a common goal. Common prosperity for the world.
The excess profits should be dumped into Moon and Mars colonization programs instead of loaned or squandered. Moon and Mars should become Chinese properties with their own mining industries and R&D operations. Just as Anglos became dominant for a century due to being first to an industrial revolution, and Anglo-Americans became the dominant power for a century due to being first to successfully dominate and utilize North American natural resources, China's future hinges upon the future equivalents of those as well.
You are absolutely right. Other countries cannot climb up the tech ladder while China occupies the whole ladder. In order to allow the world to prosper, China must invent new advanced fields for itself to move up to and create space behind it for billions of people to rise up. We cannot follow the imperialistic, harvesting, technologically stagnant, fake growth model. That model was created for 1 golden billion to lord over the rest, not for 8 billion to prosper equally.

Automation is squeezing the life out of service and manufacturing industries and it will doom the third world if we don't chart a new course. An ideal economic modernization model that is based on unceasing innovation and scientific discovery.

Exploration of new resources in space and in the Earth's deep sea and mantle is the easiest way to open up entirely new technologies and industries.

This will allow development of Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America and their growing buying power will help with China's continued development as well.



Like it or not, China already practically governs large parts of the world just by the sheer size of its economy. Why do you think Lula was so excited to get environmental commitments from Xi? China, through it's consumption habits, completely control the Brazilian farmers, who are the main drivers of deforestation.

China has more say over the most important issues in Brazil than Brazil does. To think that China's mere agricultural import laws practically decide the future existence of the Amazon- the Amazon rainforest, most biodiverse region on the planet, a crown jewel of Mother Earth- should put into perspective the gravity of the situation. Make no mistake, China's growing world governance in this age of danger and uncertainty will decide the course of humankind.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Fron the de-dollarization thread:


You are absolutely right. Other countries cannot climb up the tech ladder while China occupies the whole ladder. In order to allow the world to prosper, China must invent new advanced fields for itself to move up to and create space behind it for billions of people to rise up. We cannot follow the imperialistic, harvesting, technologically stagnant, fake growth model. That model was created for 1 golden billion to lord over the rest, not for 8 billion to prosper equally.

Automation is squeezing the life out of service and manufacturing industries and it will doom the third world if we don't chart a new course. An ideal economic modernization model that is based on unceasing innovation and scientific discovery.

Exploration of new resources in space and in the Earth's deep sea and mantle is the easiest way to open up entirely new technologies and industries.

This will allow development of Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America and their growing buying power will help with China's continued development as well.



Like it or not, China already practically governs large parts of the world just by the sheer size of its economy. Why do you think Lula was so excited to get environmental commitments from Xi? China, through it's consumption habits, completely control the Brazilian farmers, who are the main drivers of deforestation.

China has more say over the most important issues in Brazil than Brazil does. To think that China's mere agricultural import laws practically decide the future existence of the Amazon- the Amazon rainforest, most biodiverse region on the planet, a crown jewel of Mother Earth- should put into perspective the gravity of the situation. Make no mistake, China's growing world governance in this age of danger and uncertainty will decide the course of humankind.
I don't know who will be the dominant faction of humanity if/when we go interstellar. But I believe that China could be the best candidate for the early interplanetary/early AI era, perhaps for the next 200-300 years.

Everyone has their chance at the top. Middle East invented writing twice independently, after all. So there's nothing extraordinary about China regaining prominence.
 

Lethe

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However, the biggest exporter of unseparated rare earths to China is actually not Myanmar but the United States of America. This fact would probably surprise many readers who are now accustomed to an endless stream of breathless press articles on the strategic risks to US industry posed by a reliance on Chinese supply of rare earths.

The truth is the exact opposite. Using only US sourced and reported data, from respected US Government agencies, such as the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it is trivial to demonstrate that the United States of America is the major swing exporter of raw material to support the presently dominant Chinese Rare Earth Industry.

Summary: USA is the largest exporter of unseparated rare earth ores to China for processing, but this is going to wind down as USA develops its own processing capabilities and end-use production facilities. Washington is leaning on Australia to not fill the gap in the market that will result by selling ores to China.

(As I have conveyed previously, I think it is in relation to economic matters such as these that Beijing can plausibly leverage current trade restrictions to negotiate useful outcomes with Canberra)
 
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CMP

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They can't even keep their trains on their tracks. And it costs them 300 million USD to repair 9 puny bridges (watch then go way over budget or fail to complete the work). I remain skeptical that they can succeed in processing their own rare earth metals at industrial scale (at competitive costs) until they are actually successfully doing it.
 
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Tam

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Summary: USA is the largest exporter of unseparated rare earth ores to China for processing, but this is going to wind down as USA develops its own processing and end-use facilities. Washington is leaning on Australia to not fill the gap in the market that will result by selling ores to China.

(As I have conveyed previously, I think it is in relation to economic matters such as these that Beijing can plausibly leverage current trade restrictions to negotiate useful outcomes with Canberra)

The US still has the same endemic problems of de-industrialization and environmental issues to deal with. You may not have skilled labor in this area, or enough willing labor to dirty their hands in such work. What's the cost of electricity? What's the cost of logistics and inland freight? What about the toxicity and what's it's going to do over sacred Native American land? Who is going to finance the billions for the processing plants? On top of that, the processing of rare Earths are layered by well over ten thousand patents unique and owned by China. When everything is finally finished will the output be as competitively priced as those coming from China? There's something called the scale of production and the less you make the more likely the product will be more expensive.

On top of everything China might already be more advanced in the material sciences to produce finished products with rare earths, for example, magnets.
 

Coalescence

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Summary: USA is the largest exporter of unseparated rare earth ores to China for processing, but this is going to wind down as USA develops its own processing capabilities and end-use production facilities. Washington is leaning on Australia to not fill the gap in the market that will result by selling ores to China.

(As I have conveyed previously, I think it is in relation to economic matters such as these that Beijing can plausibly leverage current trade restrictions to negotiate useful outcomes with Canberra)
From what I remember, China only recently became a net importer of rare earth ores because of the crackdown on domestic rare earth mining and restrictions on domestic production:
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If China really needs to fill the gap in the market or think its a strategic risk, then they could loosen the restriction policy, although it would take some time to ramp domestic production back up again. Either way, I think China should look into investing in rare earth mining in Brazil, Vietnam and Russia instead to secure the supply of rare earth ores and not rely or fund US and Australia's industries any further.
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Hitomi

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From what I remember, China only recently became a net importer of rare earth ores because of the crackdown on domestic rare earth mining and restrictions on domestic production:
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If China really needs to fill the gap in the market or think its a strategic risk, then they could loosen the restriction policy, although it would take some time to ramp domestic production back up again. Either way, I think China should look into investing in rare earth mining in Brazil, Vietnam and Russia instead to secure the supply of rare earth ores and not rely or fund US and Australia's industries any further.
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Other than bringing stability to the market and reducing the environmental impact and corruption arising from illegal mining, it also brings some benefits such as ability to offload some more USD holdings, reduce exhaustion of internal sources. No doubt restarting production in the future will be hard and lead to extra costs but it is not impossible.
 

xypher

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Summary: USA is the largest exporter of unseparated rare earth ores to China for processing, but this is going to wind down as USA develops its own processing capabilities and end-use production facilities. Washington is leaning on Australia to not fill the gap in the market that will result by selling ores to China.

(As I have conveyed previously, I think it is in relation to economic matters such as these that Beijing can plausibly leverage current trade restrictions to negotiate useful outcomes with Canberra)
The US exports rare earths to China for processing because they don't have the equipment and any expansion of processing capacity in the West can be controlled by equipment exports from China. It is semiconductor industry but in reverse, and the West is in a worse position there than China in semiconductors.

China has zero dependence on the US or any other Western country for rare earths as it holds by far the largest reserves of all other countries. The next 3 largest countries (Vietnam, Russia, Brazil) are also not in the Western camp, the closest Western country is Australia with 10x smaller reserves than China. Mining can be kickstarted again if necessary.
 
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