Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
interesting, PetroChina getting in a NG field in Qatar that produces 32mt of LNG, which is close to 50 BCM, a year
They are securing accesses everywhere. I'm not convinced they actually need it

As we've seen with import/export data, huge rise in crude import and that leads to much higher oil product export
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

First announcement of many? Midea with new plant in Brazil at 700M RMB
 

USTBasisRollCarry

New Member
Registered Member
Can someone give an overview on US derivatives?
Also any explanation on the insane amount of derivatives that the US banks holds?
I've been a lurker on this forum for a long time now but answering this question has caused me to create an account.
The main derivative that US banks are exposed to are interest rate swaps so I will only talk about those.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

An interest rate swap is an agreement between two parties to swap the interest/coupon payments on a notional amount, but this notional amount is never exchanged.

For example, if a European corporation with a substantial (fixed-rate) debt load who thinks USD interest rates are going to be lower and an American corporation with a substantial floating-rate (variable rate) debt load who thinks EUR interest rates are going to be lower; they can agree to swap the interest rates: for example swapping 5% for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate + 3%, etc.

When reporting derivative exposures, it is only the notional amount that is reported in financial statements even though the notional values are never exchanged.

So why do banks hold these interest rate swaps? 2 main reasons
1) Hedging interest rate risk: the value of bonds and interest rates are negatively correlated, thus for banks that hold substantial amounts of mortgages, treasuries and other kinds of debt, if interest rates are going to increase, to mitigate this risk, they would hold something on their balance sheet whose price moves up when the price of previously issued debt goes down. Banks do this both with each other and with speculative institutions such as hedge funds and asset managers. These are mainly structured in terms of a fixed-rate being swapped for a floating rate based on the interest rate on a US Treasury security. Generally, either the banks swap their floating deposit rates with a fixed-rate (so banks don't have to pay more interest to depositors when interest rates increase) and/or swapping their fixed-rate loans with a floating rate swap (so banks don't take book value loses on previously issued loans when interest rate increase). This is mainly done to avoid a Silicon Valley Bank type situation where increases in interest rate risk force a financial institution to sell underlying bonds at a loss (SVB did not have interest rate swaps).

2) Intermediation: private non-financial corporations will often want to hedge interest rate risk with each other but use a bank such as BNY Mellon, State Street, or Goldman Sachs to write up the agreement and collect and disperse payments between them. Corporations of course, wish to lower their interest rate expenses on previously issued debt and will agree with each other to (if they take different opinions on the path of interest rates) to swap payments in the future. This generally involves no bank money but because the bank is exposed, the notional value is added to a bank balance sheet.

The other big reason why issuers will engage in derivatives are for speculation, but these are going to be done by financial institutions that are not systematically important such as hedge funds and asset managers that take the opposite side of the trade that banks take; due to the post-2008 regulations that require banks to hold substantial amounts of high-quality liquid assets and retained capital, banks rarely speculate on their own accounts (but often, they will speculate for other individuals on their private accounts held in trust at the bank)
 

USTBasisRollCarry

New Member
Registered Member
I've been a lurker on this forum for a long time now but answering this question has caused me to create an account.
The main derivative that US banks are exposed to are interest rate swaps so I will only talk about those.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

An interest rate swap is an agreement between two parties to swap the interest/coupon payments on a notional amount, but this notional amount is never exchanged.

For example, if a European corporation with a substantial (fixed-rate) debt load who thinks USD interest rates are going to be lower and an American corporation with a substantial floating-rate (variable rate) debt load who thinks EUR interest rates are going to be lower; they can agree to swap the interest rates: for example swapping 5% for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate + 3%, etc.

When reporting derivative exposures, it is only the notional amount that is reported in financial statements even though the notional values are never exchanged.

So why do banks hold these interest rate swaps? 2 main reasons
1) Hedging interest rate risk: the value of bonds and interest rates are negatively correlated, thus for banks that hold substantial amounts of mortgages, treasuries and other kinds of debt, if interest rates are going to increase, to mitigate this risk, they would hold something on their balance sheet whose price moves up when the price of previously issued debt goes down. Banks do this both with each other and with speculative institutions such as hedge funds and asset managers. These are mainly structured in terms of a fixed-rate being swapped for a floating rate based on the interest rate on a US Treasury security. Generally, either the banks swap their floating deposit rates with a fixed-rate (so banks don't have to pay more interest to depositors when interest rates increase) and/or swapping their fixed-rate loans with a floating rate swap (so banks don't take book value loses on previously issued loans when interest rate increase). This is mainly done to avoid a Silicon Valley Bank type situation where increases in interest rate risk force a financial institution to sell underlying bonds at a loss (SVB did not have interest rate swaps).

2) Intermediation: private non-financial corporations will often want to hedge interest rate risk with each other but use a bank such as BNY Mellon, State Street, or Goldman Sachs to write up the agreement and collect and disperse payments between them. Corporations of course, wish to lower their interest rate expenses on previously issued debt and will agree with each other to (if they take different opinions on the path of interest rates) to swap payments in the future. This generally involves no bank money but because the bank is exposed, the notional value is added to a bank balance sheet.

The other big reason why issuers will engage in derivatives are for speculation, but these are going to be done by financial institutions that are not systematically important such as hedge funds and asset managers that take the opposite side of the trade that banks take; due to the post-2008 regulations that require banks to hold substantial amounts of high-quality liquid assets and retained capital, banks rarely speculate on their own accounts (but often, they will speculate for other individuals on their private accounts held in trust at the bank)
The TL;DR on this is that because it is the notional amount of the swaps (far less money is changing hands) and the banks are often engaging in these swaps on behalf of other individuals and not their own accounts and because interest rate swaps are used to manage risk by banks - that explains both the large balance sheet exposure to banks on derivatives as well as the limited risks to financial stability that it poses
 

USTBasisRollCarry

New Member
Registered Member
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Monthly Statistical Bulletin for April 2023 is now out and it shows that USD deposits in Hong Kong increased +3.5% Y/Y in March 2023 and HKD deposits increased +0.3% Y/Y in March 2023. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed March 10, 2023 and Credit Suisse also collapsed in March 2023 so the indications of large deposit inflows to Hong Kong does not have seemed to panned out.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
looks like there is a web3 conference in HK right now.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


He is getting chased around by regulators right now.

But it seems like he is appreciating the move by HK into crypto world
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
`

If you trade crypto, you will know that Binance has their service hosted by AWS Tokyo. So if Binance moves to HK it will probably be hosted by Alicloud (which is what OKEX is doing). Given the turbulence in the market in the past year, a lot of people got burnt, so HK might be the only one this enthusiastic about crypto right now.

we will see what happens, because HK is trying to attract more investment after 3 tough years of covid lockdowns. Crypto might be one way for them to attract capital and investors back to HK.
This is an interesting strategy. China banned crypto, but kept the door open in HK to troll the international investors. Is the headache to Americans worth it to have HK being a crypto center? Time will tell.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
在一片唱衰的声音中,先不提那些无风三尺浪长期制造焦虑的低水平博主,就是《华尔街日报》也是唱衰,他们对经济学家的一项调查显示,预期中国3月份出口预计同比下降7.0%,进口下降5.0%,贸易顺差410亿美元。
结果三月份我国进出口总值3.7万亿元人民币,同比增长15.5%。其中出口21551.9亿元,同比增长23.4%;进口15541.9亿元,同比增长6.1%;贸易顺差6010.1亿元。若按美元计价,今年3月我国进出口总值5429.9亿美元,同比增长7.4%。其中出口3155.9亿美元,同比增长14.8%;进口2274.0亿美元,同比下降1.4%;贸易顺差881.9亿美元。
这远远超过任何最乐观人士的预计,中国经济韧性太强了。而且带动了一季度整体增长4.8%,较去年四季度提速2.6个百分点。
一些人说是去年3月份不行,所以增长快,这就乱说了。去年三月出口1.75万亿元,同比增长12.9%,按美元同比增长14.7%。去年一季度出口5.23万亿元,同比增长13.4%;所以这是一个在去年高增长基础上好的增长。

第二是说,出口靠新技术出口,老的完全不行,这也是错误的;实际上机电产品和劳动密集型产品出口均实现增长。比如一季度机电产品出口3.27万亿元,同比增长7.6%,占出口总值的57.9%;其中,汽车、家用电器和蓄电池分别出口1474.7亿、1412.4亿和1163.4亿元,分别增长96.6%、3.2%和84.8%。
但是劳动密集型产品出口9474.6亿元,也增长5.7%;其中,服装、塑料制品和家具分别出口2418.5亿、1702.4亿和1072.6亿元,分别增长6.7%、11.1%和0.8%。也就是说,劳动密集型产品继续在维持增长,没有衰退。
另外,汽车就发力两年就超过很久都有优势的家电,说明汽车的规模够大。不过服装则快两个汽车规模,传统产业很关键。
一季度,我国电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池,也就是大家俗称的“新三样”,合计出口2646.9亿元,同比增长66.9%,占我国出口比重同比提升1.7个百分点,达到4.7%。新增长点确实给力。

第三,欧美不行,贸易就一定会不行,这也是错误的,新老交替明显。一季度我国对东盟、拉丁美洲和非洲等新兴市场进出口分别增长16.1%、11.7%、14.1%。规模合计占比提升2.4个百分点,达到28.4%。今年一季度,我国对RCEP其他14个成员国合计进出口3.08万亿元,同比增长7.3%,占同期我国外贸总值的31.2%,比重较去年同期提升0.8个百分点;这些是相当于融入中国产业链的临近国家。
对欧盟、美国、日本和韩国分别进出口1.34万亿、1.11万亿、5464.1亿和5284.6亿元,合计占进出口总值的35.6%。对美国的出口增速-17%,对欧盟出口增速-7.1%,对日本出口增速-2.4%,增速比发展中国家小,他们占外贸比例在下降,说明对我们影响在下降了。估计明年会降低为1/3以下。当然欧美占出口还是比较高的;但是他们不行不等于中国出口就不行。

第四,中国企业跑东南亚越南了,所以他们不行中国也不行,这也得错误的。韩国一季度出口下降了12.1%,越南一季度出口下降了11.9%,中国台湾一季度出口下降了19.2%。而日本前两月美元计出口下降7.9%。看看他们和中国内地比,完全两码事。所以真正去东南亚、企业回去日韩台的,都还是非主流的。

中国经济竞争力已经出人意料,中国产业链向上爬。这个趋势后续将进一步出现取代欧美日韩在发展中国家的市场份额,最终实现中国和发展中国家的高联系。而欧美日韩与发展中国家贸易变少
HW前HR commentary on the March trade data. Obviously, a huge surprise upward. I think he made some good point about just how much other Asian countries export dropped in Q1 due to weaknesses in Europe/US market, but China's export kept going up by finding new markets.
Also interesting that NEVs, batteries and solar cell is still a relatively small portion of China's export (265B RMB, just 4.7%). China still basically just makes and exports everything. China's 2022 export was $3.59T. So even if these renewable categories reach 2T RMB in a calendar year (which is unlikely this year), it would still be under 10% of overall export.
In general, this kind of diversification allows economy to be less dependent on special events and more resilient to weaknesses in certain industry and market. As a whole, Chinese industries are just keep getting stronger.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
Pretty robust growth in money supply in China
in general, a lot more money coming in, indicating pretty healthy expansion of the economy
but somehow, no inflation at all

That's the problem China is facing,many have pointed out already. When you printed so much money,but the economy is still heading towards deflation,that means the money has not been transfered to general public efficiently,thus can not boost consumption.

The most effect way of boost consumption by printing money,is to directly hand the money over people. Or vouchers would be better,since people tends to save the money rather than spend it during deflation.
 

Iza Ngomso

Just Hatched
Registered Member
That's the problem China is facing,many have pointed out already. When you printed so much money,but the economy is still heading towards deflation,that means the money has not been transfered to general public efficiently,thus can not boost consumption.

The most effect way of boost consumption by printing money,is to directly hand the money over people. Or vouchers would be better,since people tends to save the money rather than spend it during deflation.
Consumption vouchers digitally registered to a person with an expiration date.

Spend it or lose it.

Direct QE is just a recipe for asset/savings inflation
 

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
One sign of how quickly China is moving can be seen in its trade vs South Korea. At this point, it's clear that China has completely defeated Korean industries and Korea now relies on Chinese supply chain


Huawei stood by BOE even when they got slammed for quality domestically
Koreans tried to stop China's progress by ordering up all of Japan's high end vacuum evaporation machines, but China ended up just producing its own and even surpassed Japanese producers. At this pace, China's OLED production will reach parity with Korea very soon.

Talks about chip export. Clearly, Korea saw a big fall here.

Korean cars really never did well in Chinese market, but now they can't even export parts to China. All Korean automakers have are EU and American export markets. But I think Chinese EV exports to Europe will probably end up killing Korean exports there.

Korea runs biggest deficit to China in chemical material, batteries, computers & industrial electronics.

S. Korea's ICT exports dip at
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in March​

South Korea's exports of information and communication technology (ICT) products declined at its fastest pace in more than 14 years in March amid waning global demand, extending its losing streak to a ninth month.

Outbound shipments of ICT products came to US$15.8 billion last month, down 32.2 percent from $23.3 billion a year earlier, according to the data compiled by the Ministry of Science and ICT.

The ministry said ICT exports fell across nearly all product categories last month in the midst of a global slowdown.

Exports of semiconductors, which accounted for nearly half of all ICT shipments, tumbled 33.9 percent on-year to $8.7 billion.

Overseas sales of mobile phones plunged 49.3 percent on-year to $830 million last month, and those of displays and computers sank 41.4 percent and 52.5 percent, respectively, to $1.4 billion and $850 million.

By nation, combined shipments to China, South Korea's largest trading partner, and Hong Kong slumped 40.1 percent on-year to $6.3 billion.

Exports to Vietnam, the United States and the European Union also decreased 20 percent, 33.3 percent and 30.2 percent, respectively.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Q1 trade data is out. Chinese export machine continues to get even more competitive. The trade with US is struggling. Although I think that's more due to the US economy than anything else. Same with trade with Korea. The semiconductor import from SK is way down.

As for others, I don't think it will surprise anyone that the ASEAN trade continues to expand rapidly.
China will likely grow 6.5-7% this year. Massive year of growth for China.
 
Top