Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646333490311626752

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646335511060176900

Q1 trade data is out. Chinese export machine continues to get even more competitive. The trade with US is struggling. Although I think that's more due to the US economy than anything else. Same with trade with Korea. The semiconductor import from SK is way down.

As for others, I don't think it will surprise anyone that the ASEAN trade continues to expand rapidly.

 

[KYli]

March exports surge 23%. China exports might come in much stronger than anticipated due to increase in exports to ASEAS and other third world countries even though a slowdown in demand from West is expected.

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Softbank exits from Alibaba would be a major change that Western investors influence on Chinese IT firms would be weakened. I would also expect Prosus to increase the pace of selling.

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[Overbom]

March exports surge 23%. China exports might come in much stronger than anticipated due to increase in exports to ASEAS and other third world countries even though a slowdown in demand from West is expected.

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Very impressive export data, especially when considering that the Western world growth is slowing down. It seems that China's strategy of diversification/hedging against Western markets is successful.

China's car industry is about to become an export and industrial juggernaut. Very good


Chad Russia

 

[canonicalsadhu]

Very impressive export data, especially when considering that the Western world growth is slowing down. It seems that China's strategy of diversification/hedging against Western markets is successful.

China's car industry is about to become an export and industrial juggernaut. Very good
View attachment 110938

Chad Russia
View attachment 110939

I think much of that is Chinese companies setting up final assembly factories in BRI countries (esp SEA) to export to the West. For some time you can notice both SEA-West trade and SEA-China trade increase dramatically. So the data seems to suggest this trend. Most of the value-addition comes from China but assembled in SEA and exported to the West.

 

[henrik]

March exports surge 23%. China exports might come in much stronger than anticipated due to increase in exports to ASEAS and other third world countries even though a slowdown in demand from West is expected.

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Softbank exits from Alibaba would be a major change that Western investors influence on Chinese IT firms would be weakened. I would also expect Prosus to increase the pace of selling.

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Softbank is losing big in their other investments anyway. After covid, IPO market is way down in the US. Alibaba is one of their few profitable investments.

 

[tphuang]

China is finally growing a ball here and investigation the non-market behaviour of Taiwan

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Taiwan has been discriminating against mainland in trade, but China really hasn't done anything about Taiwan here. Given that taiwan has a huge trade surplus against mainland, it's quite clear Taiwan is just not buying a lot of tech products from China under various excuses. Given how much of Taiwan's export is to mainland, this is a huge problem.

Very impressive export data, especially when considering that the Western world growth is slowing down. It seems that China's strategy of diversification/hedging against Western markets is successful.

China's car industry is about to become an export and industrial juggernaut. Very good
View attachment 110938

This is great, so the decline is all in areas that saw worldwide demand drop. Export jump in car, plastic and steel are likely due to just improved competitiveness

Chad Russia
View attachment 110939

a lot of the ASEAN export increase is due to re-routing exports to US/Europe through 3rd party country to avoid tariffs.
Russia deserves it's own category.

Decline in Taiwan export is probably a combination of Taiwan economic issues + discrimination of mainland companies.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646415980195901440

so the biggest increases are to Singapore, Russia, Philippines and Africa.

Also, interesting to see just how much steel and oil products increased in Q1. So as we discussed here, they import more crude and export more oil products, plastics and chemical products. Great trade off

 

[Andy1974]

China is finally growing a ball here and investigation the non-market behaviour of Taiwan

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Taiwan has been discriminating against mainland in trade, but China really hasn't done anything about Taiwan here. Given that taiwan has a huge trade surplus against mainland, it's quite clear Taiwan is just not buying a lot of tech products from China under various excuses. Given how much of Taiwan's export is to mainland, this is a huge problem.

This is great, so the decline is all in areas that saw worldwide demand drop. Export jump in car, plastic and steel are likely due to just improved competitiveness

a lot of the ASEAN export increase is due to re-routing exports to US/Europe through 3rd party country to avoid tariffs.
Russia deserves it's own category.

Decline in Taiwan export is probably a combination of Taiwan economic issues + discrimination of mainland companies.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646415980195901440

so the biggest increases are to Singapore, Russia, Philippines and Africa.

Also, interesting to see just how much steel and oil products increased in Q1. So as we discussed here, they import more crude and export more oil products, plastics and chemical products. Great trade off

Another great trade off here is China importing iron ore and exporting steel.

 

[tphuang]

Another great trade off here is China importing iron ore and exporting steel.

of course, China is now the greater processor of raw material into products that people need

A view from Singapore on the significance of China to their local economy (ASEAN countries) and more importantly its size vs Japan and its future potential. Australia is basically embracing the old world order and upsetting countries it actually needs in the future.

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Australia has no idea what a powerful partner ASEAN could be. Many in Canberra, for example, celebrate Australia’s current closeness with Japan in the Quad. Japan’s economy was eight times bigger than ASEAN’s in 2000. However, it’s now only 1.5 times bigger. By 2030, ASEAN’s economy will be bigger than Japan’s.

By working with AUKUS partners, such as the UK, or with Japan, Australia is betting on the past. It’s certain that the future will be different.

But China has bet a lot of capital into ASEAN. Look at export to ASEAN vs US/Europe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646467184611438592

This is not necessarily the greatest news. You'd want to see people spending money rather than depositing more

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In the midst of American funds leaving China, looks like we have some Western funds still coming in

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[tphuang]

Good analysis here are the surprising China export numbers. They are just taking over industries everywhere. But in batteries, EVs and solar cells, that's where the real gains are at.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646501756598140930

Lula visiting BYD and Huawei today. Here is him at Huawei technology development center. Maybe we can see greater Huawei presence in Brazil after this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646445829052600320

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1646479406385315842

Again, we have an article talking about china's effect in the world's debt market. To me, this is just predators from Western banking system complaining that they are not getting paid enough. These people buy debt on the cheap and expect to make fortune when suing gov't and getting paid out in full.

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[HumanHDMI]

CZ said he couldn't attent the web3 conference in person due to scheduling conflict, I'm wondering if he did attend would HK extradite him to US authorities? HK is going to be a safe haven for gray market and sketchy people, I'd expect a lot more russian oligarchs to invest in HK instead of London.

TBH they are mostly going to dubai