Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

alright, so i tweeted this earlier after reading that Saudi Arabia is looking to export green Hydrogen to Europe

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648122147708051459

People might be tired of me talking about green Hydrogen, but this is going to be huge if your read my tweet

Consider the scare unused land & water around Europe suitable for electricity generation & hydrogen generation. Consider the cold winter and lack of sun in Europe in winter. Consider the vast unused desert land and potential solar energy along most of the middle east. Due to proximity, middle east countries exporting excessive electricity to Europe in the form of green hydrogen is natural answer.

We have now at least Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Morocco talking about green hydrogen project and exporting to Europe. They are all going to use Chinese technology, because China has the best solar technology, electrolyzer technology and the most experience building large solar farms in desert. It will also have the best hydrogen transportation technology because different corporations and local gov't are spending boat load of money developing this technology and putting it into production. And China will also have the best shipbuilding technology to carry green H2 or NH3 to Europe.

There is like so much money to be made here for China's industries. It's own H2 production will probably get exported to Singapore, Japan & Korea. But it can supply tech needed to generate H2 to all the middle east countries, who will then depend on China for their economic livelihood. This is great power. If we factor in the middle east dependence on selling oil and NG to China, they will be dependent on China for a long time. And this is not even factoring in all the smart port technology they will buy from Huawei to more easily and cheaply load hydrogen onto ships and sending them off. Then, you have not only middle east but Europe depending on China for energy. This is a great position to be in.

 

[weig2000]

alright, so i tweeted this earlier after reading that Saudi Arabia is looking to export green Hydrogen to Europe

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648122147708051459

People might be tired of me talking about green Hydrogen, but this is going to be huge if your read my tweet

Consider the scare unused land & water around Europe suitable for electricity generation & hydrogen generation. Consider the cold winter and lack of sun in Europe in winter. Consider the vast unused desert land and potential solar energy along most of the middle east. Due to proximity, middle east countries exporting excessive electricity to Europe in the form of green hydrogen is natural answer.

We have now at least Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Morocco talking about green hydrogen project and exporting to Europe. They are all going to use Chinese technology, because China has the best solar technology, electrolyzer technology and the most experience building large solar farms in desert. It will also have the best hydrogen transportation technology because different corporations and local gov't are spending boat load of money developing this technology and putting it into production. And China will also have the best shipbuilding technology to carry green H2 or NH3 to Europe.

There is like so much money to be made here for China's industries. It's own H2 production will probably get exported to Singapore, Japan & Korea. But it can supply tech needed to generate H2 to all the middle east countries, who will then depend on China for their economic livelihood. This is great power. If we factor in the middle east dependence on selling oil and NG to China, they will be dependent on China for a long time. And this is not even factoring in all the smart port technology they will buy from Huawei to more easily and cheaply load hydrogen onto ships and sending them off. Then, you have not only middle east but Europe depending on China for energy. This is a great position to be in.

The problem is that green hydrogen price is not competitive enough, not for quite some time to come. Plus, where in Europe do you ship all the Africa-produced hydrogen and who are the consumers? It's typical these days that you build an industrial plant (to produce ammonia for example using hydrogen) to co-locate with the renewable energy generation sites to minimize the troubles of transporting a lot of hydrogen, but obviously investors are not going to invest industrial plants in Africa. Currently, the green hydrogen in Europe are largely consumed by signing the so-called PPA (power purchase agreements, i.e. hydrogen converted back to electricity to sell back to the electricity grid) or H2 offtake agreements, both are long-term agreements subsidised heavily by government. In other words, green hydrogen is still not commercially viable.

 

[tphuang]

The problem is that green hydrogen price is not competitive enough, not for quite some time to come. Plus, where in Europe do you ship all the Africa-produced hydrogen and who are the consumers? It's typical these days that you build an industrial plant (to produce ammonia for example using hydrogen) to co-locate with the renewable energy generation sites to minimize the troubles of transporting a lot of hydrogen, but obviously investors are not going to invest industrial plants in Africa. Currently, the green hydrogen in Europe are largely consumed by signing the so-called PPA (power purchase agreements, i.e. hydrogen converted back to electricity to sell back to the electricity grid) or H2 offtake agreements, both are long-term agreements subsidised heavily by government. In other words, green hydrogen is still not commercially viable.

Look at the way pricing is going. It's going to be competitive with natural gas very soon when using Chinese solar and electrolysis. Don't use European numbers to judge these things. Most of the hydrogen usage in the world are for industrial usage. That's basically where all of China's hydrogen usage goes to. Europe has stated they need 10 million ton of green hydrogen

Anyhow

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648148098735292416

pretty good March numbers and okay Q1 numbers. I think Q2 numbers will look quite good YoY since that's when COVID really hit hard last year.
My guess is that Q2 numbers will look more like March than Jan/Feb.

 

[Tam]

China GDP report comes in.

 

[56860]

Look at the way pricing is going. It's going to be competitive with natural gas very soon when using Chinese solar and electrolysis. Don't use European numbers to judge these things. Most of the hydrogen usage in the world are for industrial usage. That's basically where all of China's hydrogen usage goes to. Europe has stated they need 10 million ton of green hydrogen

Anyhow

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648148098735292416

pretty good March numbers and okay Q1 numbers. I think Q2 numbers will look quite good YoY since that's when COVID really hit hard last year.
My guess is that Q2 numbers will look more like March than Jan/Feb.

The man in my profile picture is on suicide watch.

 

[Overbom]

GDP growth Q1 2023 data is out
4.5% GDP Growth YoY

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China’s economy rebounds more than expected after Covid reopening​

GDP expands 4.5% in first quarter as Xi Jinping’s government seeks to restore business confidence

China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.5 per cent year on year in the first quarter, as strong growth in exports and infrastructure investment as well as a rebound in retail consumption and property prices drove a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

The official figure, which exceeded analyst expectations of a 4 per cent rise, followed efforts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government to restore business confidence damaged by pandemic controls last year and abrupt policy changes.

The January-March growth rate was still short of the government’s full-year target of 5 per cent, held back by a nationwide Covid-19 outbreak at the start of this year, but economists expect it to pick up pace as the year progresses.

 

[USTBasisRollCarry]

>Hong Kong’s aggregate balance, a measure of the amount of cash in the banking system, was HKD57.2 billion (USD7.2 billion) as of April 14, a drop of 85 percent from the high of HKD461.7 billion (USD58.8 million) in 2021 and close to the 2020 low of HKD54 billion, according to media reports.

how can it fluctuate so wildly?

Banks, won't keep much cash on their balance sheets because they would prefer to park it at a central bank (in this case, the HKMA) and earn interest so the fluctuations are both the business cycle/loan demand, and central bank/HKMA actions to control the exchange rate

also in the article
>Hong Kong dollar-denominated deposits nudged up 0.3 percent in February from a year ago and US dollar-denominated deposits climbed 3.5 percent, while other foreign currency deposits fell 10.5 percent.

Yeah, would presume a substantial amount of Credit Suisse deposits were in EUR and CHF so the deposit flight stories are suspicious.

 

[Overbom]

The biggest concern is youth unemployment rate. It needs to come down

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China’s surveyed urban jobless rate for people aged 16-24 hit 19.6% in March, according to National Statistics Bureau data published Tuesday, nearing the record high set in July last year when the figure reached 19.9%. The uptick may be partly explained by people returning to cities to hunt for jobs after the Lunar New Year holiday. The upward pressure on the rate will be closely watched in the coming months, especially as a record 11.58 million students are expected to graduate from universities and colleges this year.

 

[Deleted member 23272]

The biggest concern is youth unemployment rate. It needs to come down

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View attachment 111148

The damage the government did to the private sector in 2022 won't be undone in just three months. At the very least the statistic does say that the uptick in unemployment is moreso explained by people returning to the cities to look for work, rather than just simply giving up. It'll be a long road to recovery, the fruits of which hopefully can be seen in early 2024.

 

[henrik]

alright, so i tweeted this earlier after reading that Saudi Arabia is looking to export green Hydrogen to Europe

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648122147708051459

People might be tired of me talking about green Hydrogen, but this is going to be huge if your read my tweet

Consider the scare unused land & water around Europe suitable for electricity generation & hydrogen generation. Consider the cold winter and lack of sun in Europe in winter. Consider the vast unused desert land and potential solar energy along most of the middle east. Due to proximity, middle east countries exporting excessive electricity to Europe in the form of green hydrogen is natural answer.

We have now at least Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Morocco talking about green hydrogen project and exporting to Europe. They are all going to use Chinese technology, because China has the best solar technology, electrolyzer technology and the most experience building large solar farms in desert. It will also have the best hydrogen transportation technology because different corporations and local gov't are spending boat load of money developing this technology and putting it into production. And China will also have the best shipbuilding technology to carry green H2 or NH3 to Europe.

There is like so much money to be made here for China's industries. It's own H2 production will probably get exported to Singapore, Japan & Korea. But it can supply tech needed to generate H2 to all the middle east countries, who will then depend on China for their economic livelihood. This is great power. If we factor in the middle east dependence on selling oil and NG to China, they will be dependent on China for a long time. And this is not even factoring in all the smart port technology they will buy from Huawei to more easily and cheaply load hydrogen onto ships and sending them off. Then, you have not only middle east but Europe depending on China for energy. This is a great position to be in.

Do they need special ships for transporting H2, like those LNG transport ships? China is making these H2 transport ships now?