Chinese Economics Thread

Lethe

Lethe

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AssassinsMace said:
When it comes to business and costs, it's like water. Water always finds the lowest level to get to. In business that means finding the lowest costs for production. That's why there's outsourcing and globalization. Anyone tries to change that like how the West is trying "re-shore" everything they need in their supply chains, it means it's going to cost them more money. Anything that cost them more money and there's a competitor that can exploit the cheapest sources that the West is trying to avoid, it means they can't compete thus will go bankrupt.
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The USA is the world's second-largest market for vehicles and about two-thirds of those vehicles are already built in the USA, including those from foreign manufacturers. At the same time, exports of new vehicles from the USA are fairly limited. If Washington decrees that all vehicles sold in USA must use batteries and motors from the American supply chain, why wouldn't that work? They have the market size to pull it off, and it would not even be seriously disruptive compared to current production arrangements. It could well mean that Americans end up paying more for inferior vehicles even as the supporting industries enjoy generous government subsidies, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't work. What is Europe or Japan or China going to do? Retaliate by not buying American cars that they don't buy anyway?

AssassinsMace said:
Take a look at all the countries that have chosen the US. They're all countries like in the West that are vulnerable to supply chain problems because they don't have many natural resources of the own.
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The western leviathan includes at least three vast, resource-rich countries in the USA, Canada and Australia. Between them, which resources are they lacking?

AssassinsMace said:
China is not a threat to the West because it's plotting to take over the world. China is a threat for just existing because China proves everything they believe is a lie.
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This is a fantastic line and there is a great deal of truth in it. So far as I can tell from my very limited perspective, the story of China in recent decades can still be crudely but not inaccurately rendered as one of convergence. But one can dimly glimpse a future, flickering like a distant candle, of a China that increasingly moves beyond the paradigms of the west to establish new frontiers in science, technology, art and literature, political thought and organisation. I don't think that folks in the west actually fear that yet, however, for the simple reason that they have yet to even conceive of it.
 
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56860

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Overbom said:
GDP growth Q1 2023 data is out
4.5% GDP Growth YoY
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View attachment 111146
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Rinse and repeat. Organisations almost always underestimate Chinese growth while overestimating western growth. Google search 'Chinese economy beats expectations' and see for yourself. I am holding to my original prediction of 6.5%-7% growth for China in 2023.

56860 said:
China will likely grow 6.5-7% this year. Massive year of growth for China.
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Topazchen

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tphuang

tphuang

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henrik said:
Do they need special ships for transporting H2, like those LNG transport ships? China is making these H2 transport ships now?
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H2 if transported at liquid H2 would require even lower temperature & higher pressure than LNG. So, that's why the discussions have been transporting it as liquid methanol or liquid ammonia. That's also why the idea of transporting as solid through magnesium alloy is so interesting. How can you squeeze more H2 in there without having to do liquid H2 on a ship, which seems to have just such higher technology hurdle. All things they need to develop. Also, China is the biggest market here so this incentive them

transport is a big question when it comes to H2, that's why transporting with NG pipeline is so interesting. not having to rebuild a new network of hydrogen pipeline would be the best, although i'm not sure how they can best accomplish it.
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btw, I saw this today
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Looks like China has been getting really cheap gas from Russia in POS-1. One would imagine the terms of POS-2 will be even better. As the number of natural gas customers shrink, countries like Russia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar would be even more eager to send their NG to China

Cheap energy will be a huge advantage going forward
 
tphuang

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Things to ponder from HW前HR
我们已经有过对美国军火公司对台军售行为进行制裁，但是因为美国军火公司在华业务很少，所以他们死猪不怕开水烫，无所谓态度。

但是美光这个公司是典型挑头搞事的，媒体报道过，2017年12月，美光向美国加州联邦法庭控告福建晋华公司和联电公司，宣称联电窃取其存储芯片的知识产权，包括存储芯片的关键技术，并交给福建晋华。当两家公司在知识产权纠纷官司进行时，美光却通过其控制的政客推动对一个没有投产的晋华以所谓“威胁国家安全”的名义加以绞杀。美国人官司打不过就搞政治手段，这是很无耻的。
2018年前，美光主要游说内容为税收减免、财政拨款、科技政策；到2018年全面转向了贸易制裁、301调查、知识产权保护，一年内10次游说商务部。2018-2022年，美光向政府部门提交了超过170个游说内容，其中，贸易、知识产权、中国竞争内容几乎直指中国，技术、制造、移民内容也与中国高度相关， 总体与中国相关的、要绞杀中国行业游说内容占比高达67%。也就是说这是一个不想靠市场竞争靠玩政治且恶行累累的公司，这类公司干出什么出格的事都不稀奇。
我方做事从来都是出师有名，肯定是比较有实锤的证据才会进行审核。那么是不是这种，相信一定会水落石出。如果对方不配合不收敛，以后含美光的产品都不能出口到中国市场。

另一个是商务部关于就台湾地区对大陆贸易限制措施进行贸易壁垒调查的公告。涉及2455项产品，主要包括农产品、五矿化工产品、纺织品等。
湾湾几年每年对大陆顺差达到1700亿美元左右，如果没有对大陆的顺差，湾湾对外是逆差。那么也说明他们的竞争优势没有想象的那么大。他们能够对大陆这么大的顺差，靠的是《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》、简称ECFA，是海峡两岸遵循世界贸易组织规则，结合两岸经济发展的现状和特点，按照平等互惠原则签署的经济合作协议。该协议于2010年9月12日生效。清单内产品关税全部降为零。所以湾湾就相对欧美日韩同类产品有地域和关税优势，加上同文同种，近水楼台先得月了。
但是，可恨的是湾湾勾结美国人不断损害国家利益，政治上结合美日对大陆围堵，经济上造壁垒不允许大陆产品进入，比如电信设备、家用路由器、监控设备等各种信息产品，也不允许大陆电商网站进入，这真是是可忍孰不可忍了。台湾迄今仍禁止大陆1066项农产品、1394项工业产品，合计共2455项产品进口，约占所有进口项目的五分之一。
实际上，台湾对大陆的竞争力没有想象那么高，在全球也下降。比如今年第一季度对出口金额为977.5亿美元，下降19.2%，特别向大陆出口更是下降35%，创14年来同期最大跌幅。现在打掉湾湾的恶意壁垒，否则必然要被处罚的，到时候湾湾就不会这么傲娇了。
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So for March, we see South Korea’s export is down 13.6% YoY. Vietnam’s export is down 11.9% in Q1. China’s export was up 14.8%. TW’s export down 19.2% in Q1. Mainland firms are discriminated against, that’s why there is such a large trade gap. TW has benefited from ECFA, but given nothing back. Continuing this policy makes no sense, since mainland end up running larger surplus against other countries, which cause trade friction. Given mainland’s industrial competitiveness, no reason for ICT, software services & cars continue to be denied access to TW market. $170B trade deficit, ridiculous
 
tphuang

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not sure how much export sales China will loose in Western countries, but it's gaining a lot in Russia
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now control 70% of Russian smartphone market
And I think cars now account for over 40%. The problem is that big name Chinese auto brand still afraid of entering Russian market. That's probably preventing them from getting to like 60% of the market

Another example of Chinese renewables playing well in middle east. This time, Saudis are developing a project in Iraq, but it's actually subcontracting it to PowerChina, who will undoubtedly use Chinese solar. As more solar project take off in the region, it's a major economic opportunity
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tonyget

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I actually agree with this conclusion

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In the long run, we believe these trends will continue. Chinese exporters will likely try to explore new markets in the developing world and EM, seeking to mitigate the impact of U.S. restrictions.

That said, we believe that with its significant trade imbalance with the U.S., and a wide gap in technology and financial markets, China is unlikely to take material retaliation measures against the U.S. Instead, it will likely continue to boost domestic demand, along with research and development, to reduce reliance on foreign markets and technology. Also, similar to the U.S., China likely will continue to expand its global influence and seek cooperation with possible allies.
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