Chinese Economics Thread

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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
MortyandRick said:
Your making assumptions. Do you know the exact phrasing of the question and survey? What if it asked about short term or intermediate term investments. Oct and Nov were very low points for china economically. They didn't know these lock downs were going to be lifted and thus can't characterize that as only a short term disruption.

The mood may be different if the survey was asked now.
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I think companies will try to diversify their supply chain whenever possible. Just as China increases investments in global south, western allied entities will divert more investment towards India, Indonesia, etc.. US -China relations are not going to get better anytime soon. That’s what’s going to happen no matter how the survey was phrased.
 
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drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Petrolicious88 said:
I think companies will try to diversify their supply chain whenever possible. Just as China increases investments in global south, western allied entities will divert more investment towards India, Indonesia, etc.. US -China relations are not going to get better anytime soon. That’s what’s going to happen no matter how the survey was phrased.
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problem is "diversification" is inherently inflationary, in an already inflationary environment. it's not good for businesses' profits, and it certainly isn't good for keeping price from spiraling out of control.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Good services PMI number
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China’s services sector activity expands at fastest pace in 6 months in February as demand recovers​

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  • Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 55 in February from 52.9 in January
  • On Wednesday, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which measures business sentiment in the services and construction sectors, also rose to 56.3 in February
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Activity in China’s services sector expanded at the fastest pace in six months in February as the removal of tough coronavirus restrictions revived customer demand, driving a solid increase in employment, a private sector survey showed on Friday.
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The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 55 in February from 52.9 in January, a back-to-back monthly increase in activity after the government abruptly dismantled antivirus measures in December.
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Lethe

Lethe

Captain
In this February 2023 discussion at the Cambridge Union, Yanis Varoufakis is asked how states can weather the storm of trans-national capital. He responds "China offers a glimpse of how it could be.... they have financialised but kept strict capital controls ... an economic model that generates wealth, allows value added to stay within the country, and theoretically could be democratised."


The follow-up question I would have asked Varoufakis is to what extent China's size (which obviously cannot be emulated by most nations) and non-democratic governance are necessary or at least enabling conditions for the qualities of China's economic model that he finds intriguing.

(The first ten minutes of the video where he highlights how disastrous the Ukraine conflict is for the "European project" are also worth watching.)
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
escobar said:
Following the trade war, Beijing realized it was heavily dependent on US soybeans. This led to an effort to increase domestic soybean production with some unintended consequences. That led to an increase in soybean planting, a decrease in corn planting, and a 50% increase in corn prices. Thread...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631161354337013762
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This highlights that food self sufficiency in peace time doesn't need to be 100%. In times of war, farmers can plant something else. Nobody needs peanuts for survival and importing from African countries to support their economies instead of importing soybeans from America is a good thing
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China is also starting to accept plantation of GMO soybeans. I think it is a matter of time until Chinese farmers use modern farming methods and imports are displaced. We already saw this happen with cotton, and corn and soybeans will be next.
 
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