Saw
post this on weibo. I think there is at least some logic to this comparison of Russia/China to US/Canada
中俄经济关系正朝美加关系发展，这是俄乌战争发展中对中国最有利的一个方向。
众所周知，美加经济关系中，因为美国的人口和经济总量都是加拿大的十多倍，两边基本上经济一体化；美国加上对美国基本上言听计从和军事一体化的加拿大，本质上也是疆域和俄罗斯一样大的大联邦，可能美国对加拿大的影响力比俄罗斯对某些自治国影响力还大。中俄几个有利变化：
第一是中俄贸易快速增加，中国成为俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴了；而且后续肯定还要增加。2022年中俄贸易额为1902.72亿美元，同比增长29.3%。其中，中国对俄出口761.23亿美元，增长12.8 %；中国自俄进口1141.49亿美元，增长43.4%。 俄罗斯是顺差，因为俄罗斯卖油气、农产品和木材的，刚好是中国缺少的。而中国主要是出口制造业工业品，这个贸易结构和美加关系差不多。
而且，中俄贸易还在加大，俄罗斯驻华大使表示2023年中俄贸易有望超过2000亿美元，这是毫无疑问的，提前好几年完成了贸易目标规划。中俄2025年将可能达到3000亿美元以上。也就是说，俄罗斯和中国的贸易份额会进一步加大。
第二，欢迎中国投资是方向。俄罗斯向东是未来20年难以改变的方向，因为俄罗斯不可能投降，投降西方也容不下一个统一的俄罗斯，而俄罗斯民族利益也不可能容纳分崩离析。
欧洲在美国操控下，已经基本上断绝和俄罗斯的工业品贸易关系；乃至美国人为了断绝欧洲念想，亲自出手炸了北溪天然气管道。
所以俄罗斯贸易向东看是唯一出路，因为全世界能接纳俄罗斯油气和矿产的市场，除了中国没有第二家。阿三能吃部分油气，但是其他贸易补充不了。中国当前占俄罗斯外贸份额大概是25%，美国在加拿大对外贸易中的占比达到68%；可见中俄的贸易潜力还非常非常大。中俄贸易提升到4000亿后，就可以占俄罗斯一半，双方经济纽带就会更加牢固。
而且，中俄中越发平衡。比如统计发现2022年12月当月，中俄贸易额为178.05亿美元。其中，中国对俄出口88.08亿美元，中国自俄进口89.97亿美元，已经平衡。根源就是中国工业品成为西方代替品。比如手机、家电等电子工业品，中国已经占领90%份额，这让欧美眼红不已。在一些大型设备上，俄罗斯一家调研机构数据显示，近7成俄企用中国制造替代西方设备。
俄罗斯还欢迎中国加大投资，放开远东开发，把惧华心魔去掉还是大有可为的。尤其搞好中俄自由贸易是大有可为的。
第三是中俄等金砖国家正在构建新金融体系，俄罗斯尤其积极和紧急。俄罗斯已经宣布他们与中国的油气结算中一半卢布、一半人民币。而且外汇清空美元基础上，还要进一步清空欧元，加大人民币和黄金储备。说明俄罗斯已经对欧美不抱希望了。
金砖国家明显是当前国际金融体系的被剥削和受损方，欧美没有多少生产却过着好日子，根源还是金融体系让他们多吃多占。而中国也成为俄罗斯唯一可以持有外汇的大市场，其他印度巴西等还是小，撑不起俄罗斯需求，尤其发展中国家汇率变化大，贬值快，就人民币是靠谱的。
所以俄罗斯的经济、贸易、投资、技术和金融和中国的嵌合客观上正在加大，形势比人强。中国如果拥有俄罗斯这个资源腹地，再加上中亚和东南亚的合作，那我们的经济底盘就非常强悍了。
First he talks about Size comparison. It's true, population and economic ratio is about the same bw China/Russia and US/Canada. But of course in geopolitical heft, military and such, it's not a valid comparison. But let's just talk about economic relationship. That's where i think he is pointing to the similarities
In terms of balance of trade, he is somewhat on point. It's true that you have a complementary relationship in both cases where 1 country sell a lot of energy & natural resources and the other sends machinery. Although in the case of Canada/US, Canada also sends plenty of machines over and America doesn't need to import much oil anymore.
By the way, I'm not 100% sure this is accurate since the import in 2021 look to be around $240B on this chart, but other sources had it at $300B. So there is good chance it's under counting Russian imports.
Anyhow,. It shows Russia's total import in December to be bw $15-16 billion USD. Of which, over $6 billion is in technology. Now, if China did export $8.8B to Russia in that month, It would be more than half of Russia's imports. He said that China has 90% market share in Russia's phone & consumer electronics. That may be true, i'm not sure. But certainly as Russia imports more cars from China through these JVs that got formed at end of last year, that export number to Russia can go up even more.
I also see this
Russia's current account - a measure of the difference between all money coming into a country through trade, investment and transfers, and what flows back out - came in at $227.4 billion, up 86% from 2021.
That's about $19 billion more export than import a month. Which would be about $35B a month of export. Based on trade data, China accounted for 25% of Russia's export in December. But as we know, EU refined oil ban from Russia started in February. So, it will be interesting to see over the next couple of months, how much of Russia's export will go to China. There should be even more oil exports and LNG, but pipeline gas can only go up so much. If Russia is selling Nickel to China in RMB, then that would improve Russian export to China of Nickel also.
Let's say 40% of Russia's exports and 60% of Russia's imports are with China by the end of this year. That could be $14B in export to China and $10B in import. That would be close to $300B a year run rate.
Of course, this is likely to continue to increase over the next couple of years as China push out all the Western companies as its brand awareness in Russia continue to improve and as Russia aligns its infrastructure and energy export with China. Could we get to a scenario where over half of its trades are done with China? I would think so.
