Chinese Economics Thread

[Hadoren]

For the first time in about 25 years, a majority (55%) of US companies which are already in China don't see the country as in their top 3 priorities for more investment.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630871607098109952

This title can be written so many different ways.

• Change majority to 40%, or of 2/3rds, or another value.
• Change US companies to Japanese/EU/German/French/UK/Korean/Taiwanese/anything else.
• Change "already in China" to "outside of China" or simply use all companies, or give an arbitrary classification of companies.
• Use "top 5/3/2/1."

I bet that in every single year, the following is true.

• For the first time in about 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 years, or since COVID, a majority, or 40%, or 60%, or 2/3 of US, EU, Japanese, German, French, UK, Korean, or Taiwanese companies which are already in China, or are not yet in China, or both, or are in the S&P 500, or have revenues over $1 billion, or have profits over $1 billion, or have more than 1,000 employees, or have more than 10,000 employees don't see the country as in their top 5, or 3, or 2, or 1 priorities for more investment.

Let's give an example.

• For the first time since China reopened after COVID, 70% of Indian companies in the S&P 500 don't see China as in their top 5 priorities for more investment.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

This title can be written so many different ways.

• Change majority to 40%, or of 2/3rds, or another value.
• Change US companies to Japanese/EU/German/French/UK/Korean/Taiwanese/anything else.
• Change "already in China" to "outside of China" or simply use all companies, or give an arbitrary classification of companies.
• Use "top 5/3/2/1."

I bet that in every single year, the following is true.

• For the first time in about 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 years, or since COVID, a majority, or 40%, or 60%, or 2/3 of US, EU, Japanese, German, French, UK, Korean, or Taiwanese companies which are already in China, or are not yet in China, or both, or are in the S&P 500, or have revenues over $1 billion, or have profits over $1 billion, or have more than 1,000 employees, or have more than 10,000 employees don't see the country as in their top 5, or 3, or 2, or 1 priorities for more investment.

Let's give an example.

• For the first time since China reopened after COVID, 70% of Indian companies in the S&P 500 don't see China as in their top 5 priorities for more investment.

Put a random number generator in there and you've written a China headline generator.

 

[vincent]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

”The survey was conducted between mid-October and mid-November last year with 319 of the chamber’s almost 1,000 members replying. “

guess what happened in China last October/November in China

 

[luminary]

Trade with Australia is projected to resume by 80%, but a considerable amount of goods like barley, lobster, and wine have been long supplanted by other countries in the Chinese market and will likely never recover. It is a painful lesson for Australia.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Pierre Tam, president of the Hong Kong Wine Industry Association, said that Australian wine cannot reclaim its lost market share in China because products from Chile and Argentina have already replaced it.

I recall the CEO of Penfolds wine making some arrogant statement about being capable of "making do" without Chinese customers a few weeks ago in the Aussie newspapers. Now he is begging on his hands and knees for the Chinese to let him back into the market:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[escobar]

Following the trade war, Beijing realized it was heavily dependent on US soybeans. This led to an effort to increase domestic soybean production with some unintended consequences. That led to an increase in soybean planting, a decrease in corn planting, and a 50% increase in corn prices. Thread...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631161354337013762

 

[ansy1968]

Following the trade war, Beijing realized it was heavily dependent on US soybeans. This led to an effort to increase domestic soybean production with some unintended consequences. That led to an increase in soybean planting, a decrease in corn planting, and a 50% increase in corn prices. Thread...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631161354337013762

Bro because the Chinese sign a trade deal with Trump, after he leave office they considered that deal Null and Void.

Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a "historical trade deal" with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. Today the only undisputed "historical" aspect of that agreement is its failure.

 

[broadsword]

Following the trade war, Beijing realized it was heavily dependent on US soybeans. This led to an effort to increase domestic soybean production with some unintended consequences. That led to an increase in soybean planting, a decrease in corn planting, and a 50% increase in corn prices. Thread...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631161354337013762

That's nuts! The peanuts I use to make my homemade peanut butter is from China. Indian nuts, though of the same variety as the Chinese, strangely do not carry the same aroma. Even though they are 10% cheaper, the grocer is super nice and can speak Mandarin, and weighed with an electronic scale to boot, I can't buy theirs because of the 'earthy taste'.

Peanut butter is supposed to taste peanutty and not like soil.

 

[sunnymaxi]

On the 2022 Fortune 500 list, the number of Chinese companies would be 145. For the 1st time, the aggregate revenue of Fortune Global 500 companies based on

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

exceeded that of US companies, accounting for 31% of the total, reported Cision..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631104996220755969

 

[sunnymaxi]

Latest -

In 2022, the number of industrial SMEs and micro businesses in

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

surpassed 52 million, and the combined operating revenues of SMEs with an annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan ($2.91 million) from their main operations surpassed 80 trillion yuan last year..

 

[tphuang]

This is a pretty good chart from David Goldman on how quickly China's exports to the global south have ramped up. This doesn't even include Russia, which probably has seen some of the largest jumps

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631290370582626304

Other good point he made is that other countries are making products that are using China's supply chain or are just outright Chinese companies.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631288437264330755

On the other hand, you could argue that while countries are relying on Chinese supply chain, they are increasingly anxious about losing their own industries. Makes for interesting times.